Started By
Message
Old School Model - Rose Bowl Edition : #1 Michigan (13-0) vs #4 Alabama (12-1)
Posted on 12/7/23 at 2:11 pm
Posted on 12/7/23 at 2:11 pm
- #1 Michigan (13-0) vs #4 Alabama (12-1)
- January 1, 2024 - 5:00 PM EST, ESPN
- Michigan by 1.5, O/U 45.5
- Vegas Score : Michigan 24-22
Note : Stats used below and vs Top 50 off/def per FEI are ONLY P5 vs P5 games and since 10/1. Sacks are included in PASSING stats and attempts.
ORIGINAL ALL P5 TEAM MODEL
MODEL SCORE : ALABAMA 27 - MICHIGAN 24
Alabama Offense
- Passing YPA (8.46) is 130% of opponents averages allowed (6.51)
- Rushing YPA (4.70) is 94% of opponents averages allowed (5.01)
- Alabama averages 0.0851 pts per yard
Alabama Defense
- Passing YPA Allowed (6.40) is 76% of opponents average (8.37)
- Rushing YPA Allowed (4.81) is 79% of opponents average (6.08)
- Alabama averages 0.0672 pts per yard allowed.
Michigan Offense
- Passing YPA (5.16) is 103% of opponents averages allowed (5.02)
- Rushing YPA (4.23) is 108% of opponents averages allowed (3.90)
- Michigan averages 0.0977 pts per yard
Michigan Defense
- Passing YPA Allowed (6.48) is 89% of opponents average (7.28)
- Rushing YPA Allowed (3.95) is 76% of opponents average (5.17)
- Michigan averages 0.0696 pts per yard allowed.
PREDICTION
Alabama - 27
Michigan - 24
Alabama
- 347 total yards on 62 plays (5.60 YPP)
- 223 yards on 28 dropbacks (7.98 YPA)
- 124 yards on 34 rushes (3.65 YPA)
Michigan
- 289 total yards on 62 plays (4.66 YPP)
- 126 yards on 24 dropbacks (5.26 YPA)
- 163 yards on 38 rushes (4.28 YPA)
- January 1, 2024 - 5:00 PM EST, ESPN
- Michigan by 1.5, O/U 45.5
- Vegas Score : Michigan 24-22
Note : Stats used below and vs Top 50 off/def per FEI are ONLY P5 vs P5 games and since 10/1. Sacks are included in PASSING stats and attempts.
ORIGINAL ALL P5 TEAM MODEL
MODEL SCORE : ALABAMA 27 - MICHIGAN 24
Alabama Offense
- Passing YPA (8.46) is 130% of opponents averages allowed (6.51)
- Rushing YPA (4.70) is 94% of opponents averages allowed (5.01)
- Alabama averages 0.0851 pts per yard
Alabama Defense
- Passing YPA Allowed (6.40) is 76% of opponents average (8.37)
- Rushing YPA Allowed (4.81) is 79% of opponents average (6.08)
- Alabama averages 0.0672 pts per yard allowed.
Michigan Offense
- Passing YPA (5.16) is 103% of opponents averages allowed (5.02)
- Rushing YPA (4.23) is 108% of opponents averages allowed (3.90)
- Michigan averages 0.0977 pts per yard
Michigan Defense
- Passing YPA Allowed (6.48) is 89% of opponents average (7.28)
- Rushing YPA Allowed (3.95) is 76% of opponents average (5.17)
- Michigan averages 0.0696 pts per yard allowed.
PREDICTION
Alabama - 27
Michigan - 24
Alabama
- 347 total yards on 62 plays (5.60 YPP)
- 223 yards on 28 dropbacks (7.98 YPA)
- 124 yards on 34 rushes (3.65 YPA)
Michigan
- 289 total yards on 62 plays (4.66 YPP)
- 126 yards on 24 dropbacks (5.26 YPA)
- 163 yards on 38 rushes (4.28 YPA)
This post was edited on 12/7/23 at 2:30 pm
13
Posted on 12/7/23 at 2:14 pm to SummerOfGeorge
That would be unheard of 27-24, 3 games in a row for a Bama win.....I'll take it
Posted on 12/7/23 at 2:17 pm to SummerOfGeorge
Michigan has a very, very high "pts per yard" number because they have created a bunch of short drives and easy scores. That has to be a bit concerning for them considering even with those they have only scored 24, 26, 30, 31 pts against the 4 Top 50 defenses they have played.
Scoring Drives under 40 yards
Iowa : 2 plays, 5 yards, TD
Iowa : 1 play, 6 yards, TD
Iowa : 9 plays, 28 yards, FG
Iowa : 4 plays, -3 yards, FG
Iowa : 6 plays, 23 yards, FG
Ohio St : 4 plays, 7 yards, TD
Maryland : 0 plays, 0 yards, Safety
Maryland : 0 plays, 0 yards, Fumble Return TD
Penn St : 1 play, 30 yards, TD
Against Iowa they scored 23 pts on 59 yards.
Vs the 4 best defenses they played (Ohio State, Penn St, Iowa, Maryland), they scored 46 points on 96 total yards. Drives where their defense or special teams either handed them the ball inside opponents territory or just put points on the board themselves.
Make Michigan drive the length of the field to score like we did against Georgia and I think we will be in very good shape.
Scoring Drives under 40 yards
Iowa : 2 plays, 5 yards, TD
Iowa : 1 play, 6 yards, TD
Iowa : 9 plays, 28 yards, FG
Iowa : 4 plays, -3 yards, FG
Iowa : 6 plays, 23 yards, FG
Ohio St : 4 plays, 7 yards, TD
Maryland : 0 plays, 0 yards, Safety
Maryland : 0 plays, 0 yards, Fumble Return TD
Penn St : 1 play, 30 yards, TD
Against Iowa they scored 23 pts on 59 yards.
Vs the 4 best defenses they played (Ohio State, Penn St, Iowa, Maryland), they scored 46 points on 96 total yards. Drives where their defense or special teams either handed them the ball inside opponents territory or just put points on the board themselves.
Make Michigan drive the length of the field to score like we did against Georgia and I think we will be in very good shape.
This post was edited on 12/7/23 at 2:23 pm
Posted on 12/7/23 at 2:22 pm to SummerOfGeorge
If we used our average pt per yard allowed (defense) and scored (offense) the final score would be:
Alabama - 30
Michigan - 20
Alabama - 30
Michigan - 20
Posted on 12/7/23 at 2:25 pm to SummerOfGeorge
With what you said, I'd like to see Milroe be a bit quicker in decision making. Holding the ball too long in the pocket screams strip fumble.
It's worked til now, though, so what do I know? Haha
(Response to UM's short field scoring)
It's worked til now, though, so what do I know? Haha
(Response to UM's short field scoring)
Posted on 12/7/23 at 3:01 pm to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
- Passing YPA Allowed (6.40) is 76% of opponents average (8.37) -
Rushing YPA Allowed (4.81) is 79% of opponents average (6.08)
That’s hot
Posted on 12/7/23 at 3:03 pm to SummerOfGeorge
I'll take 1 point or 30, so long as it's a W. 
I was a bit surprised how close the offenses are in Run to Pass Balance and Total Plays.
Rushes(% of total plays)- Passes(% of Total plays)- Total Plays
Bama: 518(63%) - 302(37%) - 820
Um: 493(61%)- 315(39%) - 808
I've only watched a few UM games, and it seemed they were heavier on the run than Bama. I do like the advantage in Yards per pass attempt. It looks like Bama can keep them honest on defense, while Bama can maybe afford to play heavier on rush D.
Some other notes that were pretty similar:
Bama:
94% RZ conversion
46.75% 3rd down concessions
UM:
88.14% RZ conversion
46.71% 3rd down concessions
Two very physical teams. It should be a great matchup.
Thanks for the break down as always!
I was a bit surprised how close the offenses are in Run to Pass Balance and Total Plays.
Rushes(% of total plays)- Passes(% of Total plays)- Total Plays
Bama: 518(63%) - 302(37%) - 820
Um: 493(61%)- 315(39%) - 808
I've only watched a few UM games, and it seemed they were heavier on the run than Bama. I do like the advantage in Yards per pass attempt. It looks like Bama can keep them honest on defense, while Bama can maybe afford to play heavier on rush D.
Some other notes that were pretty similar:
Bama:
94% RZ conversion
46.75% 3rd down concessions
UM:
88.14% RZ conversion
46.71% 3rd down concessions
Two very physical teams. It should be a great matchup.
Thanks for the break down as always!
Posted on 12/7/23 at 3:07 pm to SummerOfGeorge
Honestly surprised it favors us considering how much a lot computer models love the top 3 big 10 teams. The rest of the big 10 skews their numbers massively
Posted on 12/7/23 at 3:07 pm to Che Boludo
I think our rush defense has is numbers skewed because of running QBs. I don't think Michigan will have more success than UGA had. It would surprise me if they go over 100.
Posted on 12/7/23 at 3:08 pm to Che Boludo
quote:
I was a bit surprised how close the offenses are in Run to Pass Balance and Total Plays.
Michigan has had a very big difference in their offense vs teams they can overmatch (most of their schedule) vs teams they cannot (OSU, PSU, Iowa)
Vs Bad Defenses
62 Plays
37 Runs (58%)
26 Passes (42%)
vs 4 "Good" Defenses (PSU, Maryland, OSU, Iowa)
62 plays
41 Runs (66%)
21 Passes (34%)
They tried to let him throw against Iowa to get him going and he ended up with 147 yards on 30 attempts (4.9 YPA), which is dreadful.
Posted on 12/7/23 at 3:10 pm to Remiden
quote:
I think our rush defense has is numbers skewed because of running QBs. I don't think Michigan will have more success than UGA had. It would surprise me if they go over 100.
It is - mainly Jayden Daniels absurd performance. On the flip side, Jayden Daniels and their rush offense has done that to most everyone, so we held them pretty much near his average.
Posted on 12/7/23 at 4:41 pm to SummerOfGeorge
Michigan would concern me more in a 2009 Bama kind of way, except their numbers are against those vaunted B10 offenses.
Posted on 12/7/23 at 5:00 pm to Teague
quote:
Michigan would concern me more in a 2009 Bama kind of way, except their numbers are against those vaunted B10 offenses.
I think we have the 2 biggest offensive game breakers in Burton and Bond (Not mentioning Milroe)
In a presumably low scoring affair, that can be the difference
Posted on 12/7/23 at 5:00 pm to Teague
Just my opinion but if Bama can keep Michigan to 3rd and long (8 yds or more) for most of the game, I think they're in trouble. I think Dallas and Chris can tee off on their O line in that situation as long as Tim Keenan and Otis can collapse the pocket.
Posted on 12/7/23 at 5:21 pm to SummerOfGeorge
It's a strange matchup because Michigan has a ton of NFL talent especially on O-line and all over the defense and are well coached. If Bama jumps on them early though I could see it getting ugly. Idk though because they haven't done it all year.
Also it's going to be awesome seeing these two in the Rose Bowl. Even though that stadium is an absolute dump in person.
Also it's going to be awesome seeing these two in the Rose Bowl. Even though that stadium is an absolute dump in person.
Posted on 12/7/23 at 5:31 pm to SummerOfGeorge
Protect the ball, force Michigan to try and drive the length of the field and I see us winning by double digits!!
Posted on 12/7/23 at 6:14 pm to Amarillo Tide
quote:
Bama can keep Michigan to 3rd and long (8 yds or more) for most of the game, I think they're in trouble.
That goes for any game, any team.
Posted on 12/7/23 at 6:55 pm to SummerOfGeorge
Let’s keep in mind UM plays a weak schedule. A decent OSU this year not their best team and an average PSU. Literally that’s it. We should punch them in face really hard and surprise them right out of the gate.
Posted on 12/7/23 at 7:10 pm to SummerOfGeorge
The thing that plays into Michigan’s favor is we aren’t your typical Alabama team that can score in bunches or stretch a lead once we take full control of the game. We’ve become more efficient and confident football team over the second half of the season, but we still have a tendency to get bogged down every so often. That’s the kind of game Michigan wants to play.
Posted on 12/7/23 at 7:15 pm to FairhopeTider
We could very easily screw around, give them short fields and play into their hands. We've done that before at times.
If we don't, we're in extremely good shape. But this loveable team can make it difficult on themselves at times.
If we don't, we're in extremely good shape. But this loveable team can make it difficult on themselves at times.
Page 1 of 2
Latest Alabama News
Popular
Back to top
Follow SECRant for SEC Football News