re: Stewart Mandel predicts CFP scenarios

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Bama: 3 top 15 wins, 1 loss to a one-loss team
Texas: 1 top 15 win, 1 loss to a two-loss team

There is no honest debate as to which resume would be better.

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True that. They should've played each other this season to find out which team was better!!!

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If Bama and Texas win their CCG: Bama: 3 top 15 wins, 1 loss to a one-loss team Texas: 1 top 15 win, 1 loss to a two-loss team There is no honest debate as to which resume would be better. If Bama clearly has the better resume (they would) you don’t go to the “head to head tiebreaker.”

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Texas won by double digits in a road game at alabama. There is no scenario where they get jumped by them.

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There is no honest debate as to which resume would be better. If Bama clearly has the better resume (they would) you don’t go to the “head to head tiebreaker.”

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I don't disagree, but what if "did they play head to head?" is the first question when looking at said resume?

The problem CFB has with rankings systems is that most teams do not play each other and there are so many conferences that comparing is difficult. We have a unique case when comparing these two resumes where they HAVE played each other, and people want to throw that out because of resumes put together where Bama beat more teams that we all know AREN'T among the best teams in the country (though are still good teams) than Texas did.

I guess all that said to ultimately agree with you on the surface that you put Bama higher But I do think completely disregarding the head to head is a mistake as well

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head to head tiebreaker

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I am of the opinion Texas should get in over Alabama. I think both belong over Oregon.

The committee has been known to selectively apply h2h results and pick in choose what is and is not close enough for it top matter.

Example 1:
2014 TCU was ranked ahead of Baylor in the penultimate rankings. Then the committee decided h2h mattered one week later.

Example 2: 2016 11-1 Non Division Champion OSU ranks ahead of 11-2 conference champion PSU who beat them h2h.

Example 3: The very next year in the penultimate ranking 10-2 SEC West champion Auburn is ranked ahead of 11-1 Non champion Alabama that they beat h2h and 11-1 SEC East champion UGA they beat h2h.

Example 4: 10-2 Alabama ranks ahead of 10-2 Tennessee that beat them h2h in the final rankings in 2022.

The argument we aren't taking seriously about FSU potentially being left out is more interesting if you consider that in 2017 the penultimate rankings looked like this:

1 Clemson 11-1
2 Auburn 10-2
3 Oklahoma 11-1
4 Wisconsin 12-0

That's a 2 loss team ranked multiple spots ahead of an undefeated P5 team.