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Old School Prediction Model Returns : Alabama vs Tennessee
Posted on 10/17/23 at 4:35 pm
Posted on 10/17/23 at 4:35 pm
Alabama Offense
- Passing YPA (10.46) is 132% of opponents averages allowed (7.93)
- Rushing YPA (3.30) is 86% of opponents averages allowed (3.82)
- Alabama averages 0.0752 pts per yard, 103% of opponents pts per yard allowed (0.0728)
Alabama Defense
- Passing YPA Allowed (7.27) is 88% of opponents average (8.29)
- Rushing YPA Allowed (2.80) is 63% of opponents average (4.42)
- Alabama averages 0.0649 pts per yard allowed, 89% of opponents pts per yard allowed (0.0732)
Tennessee Offense
- Passing YPA (6.93) is 82% of opponents averages allowed (8.42)
- Rushing YPA (5.01) is 135% of opponents averages allowed (3.71)
- Tennessee averages 0.0743 pts per yard, 98% of opponents pts per yard allowed (0.0760)
Tennessee Defense
- Passing YPA Allowed (5.90) is 73% of opponents average (8.05)
- Rushing YPA Allowed (3.36) is 103% of opponents average (3.27)
- Tennessee averages 0.0647 pts per yard allowed, 98% of opponents pts per yard allowed (0.0662)
PREDICTION
Alabama - 24
Tennessee - 21
Alabama
- 321 total yards on 64 plays (5.01 YPP)
- 201 pass yards on 26 throws (7.73 YPA)
- 120 rush yards on 38 rushes (3.15 YPA)
Tennessee
- 309 total yards on 69 plays (4.48 YPP)
- 163 pass yards on 27 throws (6.03 YPA)
- 146 rush yards on 42 rushes (3.48 YPA)
- Passing YPA (10.46) is 132% of opponents averages allowed (7.93)
- Rushing YPA (3.30) is 86% of opponents averages allowed (3.82)
- Alabama averages 0.0752 pts per yard, 103% of opponents pts per yard allowed (0.0728)
Alabama Defense
- Passing YPA Allowed (7.27) is 88% of opponents average (8.29)
- Rushing YPA Allowed (2.80) is 63% of opponents average (4.42)
- Alabama averages 0.0649 pts per yard allowed, 89% of opponents pts per yard allowed (0.0732)
Tennessee Offense
- Passing YPA (6.93) is 82% of opponents averages allowed (8.42)
- Rushing YPA (5.01) is 135% of opponents averages allowed (3.71)
- Tennessee averages 0.0743 pts per yard, 98% of opponents pts per yard allowed (0.0760)
Tennessee Defense
- Passing YPA Allowed (5.90) is 73% of opponents average (8.05)
- Rushing YPA Allowed (3.36) is 103% of opponents average (3.27)
- Tennessee averages 0.0647 pts per yard allowed, 98% of opponents pts per yard allowed (0.0662)
PREDICTION
Alabama - 24
Tennessee - 21
Alabama
- 321 total yards on 64 plays (5.01 YPP)
- 201 pass yards on 26 throws (7.73 YPA)
- 120 rush yards on 38 rushes (3.15 YPA)
Tennessee
- 309 total yards on 69 plays (4.48 YPP)
- 163 pass yards on 27 throws (6.03 YPA)
- 146 rush yards on 42 rushes (3.48 YPA)
This post was edited on 10/17/23 at 4:38 pm
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Posted on 10/17/23 at 4:51 pm to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
- Passing YPA (6.93) is 82% of opponents averages allowed (8.42) -
Rushing YPA (5.01) is 135% of opponents averages allowed (3.71)
Yikes that’s pretty bad passing efficiency considering the scheme they run and the success they have on the ground
Is Milton still kinda bad
This post was edited on 10/17/23 at 4:52 pm
Posted on 10/17/23 at 5:17 pm to Glorious
quote:
Yikes that’s pretty bad passing efficiency considering the scheme they run and the success they have on the ground
Is Milton still kinda bad
They haven't thrown for over 300 yards in a game the entire season and McCoy is out for the year. In conference play he's averaging 209 YPG, 7.1 YPA and has 4 TDs and 4 INTs. And they've played South Carolina and A&M in that stretch - 2 teams that cannot defend the pass.
They can run the football, though.
Posted on 10/17/23 at 5:34 pm to SummerOfGeorge
From this, these two teams seem really evenly matched. Hope Steele has the defense ready to play!
Posted on 10/17/23 at 5:43 pm to SummerOfGeorge
Him and Milroe are pretty comparable. I honestly think this one comes down to who plays better between the two on Saturday.
Milton:
112/182 - 61% completion rate
1264 yards, 8.4 average
10 touchdowns, 4 ints
Milroe:
85/132 - 64% completion rate
1397 yards, 10.6 average
11 touchdowns, 4 ints
Their per game averages aren’t far off either.
Milton’s usually good for 220-250 a game and maybe a pick. Completes a good more amount of short to intermediate throws in comparison to Milroe, so focus should be on limiting their drives and getting them off the field.
Milton:
112/182 - 61% completion rate
1264 yards, 8.4 average
10 touchdowns, 4 ints
Milroe:
85/132 - 64% completion rate
1397 yards, 10.6 average
11 touchdowns, 4 ints
Their per game averages aren’t far off either.
Milton’s usually good for 220-250 a game and maybe a pick. Completes a good more amount of short to intermediate throws in comparison to Milroe, so focus should be on limiting their drives and getting them off the field.
This post was edited on 10/17/23 at 5:46 pm
Posted on 10/17/23 at 5:52 pm to UhOhOreo
quote:
Him and Milroe are pretty comparable
I'd take Milroe in a heartbeat. Milroe has tons of faults, but he's excellent down the field and big plays can cover up all sorts of faults. And he's generally comfortable throwing the ball with guys all around him.
Milton is awful down the field and nearly as bad as Milroe in the intermediate range. He's also terrible when he has pressure around him. For a guy in that offense, with all those easy gimmee throws, to only have a 61% completion is really bad. Milton's decision making is also just as bad if not worse than Jalen's is.
QB Stats on Deep throws (+20 yards downfield) (out of 127 QBs)
Milroe
144.8 QB Rating (#3)
19/31 (61%)
737 yards
23.8 YPA
9 TD
0 INT
Milton
53.7 QB Rating (#112)
8/35 (22.9%)
316 yards
9.0 YPA
3 TD
4 INT
QB Stats on Throws under Pressure (out of 142 QBs)
Milroe
132.4 QB Rating (#2)
18/32 (56%)
446 yards
13.9 YPA
5 TD
1 INT
Milton
57.1 QB Rating (#79)
10/36 (27.8%)
299 yards
8.3 YPA
2 TD
2 INT
Posted on 10/17/23 at 5:54 pm to SummerOfGeorge
Can you guys stop the run with just five in the box?
Posted on 10/17/23 at 5:56 pm to Porter Osborne Jr
quote:
Can you guys stop the run with just five in the box?
We have more of a shot this year than last, but I'm not sure the same rules apply as they did last season. Their QB/WR combo last year meant that if you cheated at all with your back 6 you were going to get beat and the QB was going to find him. Not sure they have the same ability this year - on either end. Milton can't place it the same way Hooker did (and isn't the same run threat) - and they don't have the combo of Hyatt taking the top off and McCoy posting up that they did.
I think there is way more room for creativity in defensive playcalling against this version of their offense than there was last year.
This post was edited on 10/17/23 at 5:57 pm
Posted on 10/17/23 at 5:58 pm to SummerOfGeorge
Did you include the USF game or throw it out since Milroe didn’t play?
Posted on 10/17/23 at 6:03 pm to Porter Osborne Jr
quote:
Can you guys stop the run with just five in the box?
We have most of the time. Few places we didn’t do well on passing and then made some adjustments to cover the next game. I think the D is solid.
Posted on 10/17/23 at 6:05 pm to mistaken4193
quote:
Did you include the USF game or throw it out since Milroe didn’t play?
Not included because it isn't a P5 opponent.
Posted on 10/17/23 at 6:06 pm to SummerOfGeorge
All very true. I’m still surprised UF stomped them. You guys should roll
Posted on 10/17/23 at 6:08 pm to Porter Osborne Jr
quote:
You guys should roll
LOL - well that isn't going to happen.
Posted on 10/17/23 at 6:47 pm to SummerOfGeorge
We might have the breakout game finally but I’m more hoping we barely win and destroy LSU lol
Posted on 10/17/23 at 6:53 pm to SummerOfGeorge
Prediction of Alabama's scoring of 24 points seems pretty accurate
Posted on 10/17/23 at 8:45 pm to SummerOfGeorge
How much do you think the unusual amount of sacks taken by Alabama is skewing the Pass YPA and Run YPA? Do you think it effects the outcome of the model? Or if sacks counted against passing, would the model yield the same result?
Posted on 10/17/23 at 9:12 pm to Porter Osborne Jr
quote:
You guys should roll
Scoring 24 is this team's version of "rolling".
Posted on 10/17/23 at 11:22 pm to Master of Sinanju
quote:
Scoring 24 is this team's version of "rolling".
Posted on 10/18/23 at 8:07 am to LaneB
Tennessee is committed to running the ball and if Bama can stop that or really limit it, I think they've in deep trouble. I would force them to throw it more because I don't think Milton can beat Bama on his own.
While I'd like to see Bama beat those walking bags of pus by 100+ points, I'll take a win regardless of the score.
While I'd like to see Bama beat those walking bags of pus by 100+ points, I'll take a win regardless of the score.
This post was edited on 10/18/23 at 8:08 am
Posted on 10/18/23 at 8:14 am to Crimson77
quote:
How much do you think the unusual amount of sacks taken by Alabama is skewing the Pass YPA and Run YPA? Do you think it effects the outcome of the model? Or if sacks counted against passing, would the model yield the same result?
It definitely messes with things, but because it is a constant across the board (sacks = run stats) and our usages are pretty consistent, I don't think it messes with the numbers too much.
What it does do is mess with people's perceptions. Our run game isn't great, but it isn't horrid either. The sack numbers absolutely demolish our overall rush numbers and the rush per attempt numbers. If you removed QB sacks and only had RB attempts + QB runs we'd be sitting at a pretty decent rush efficiency number.
The running backs have 908 yards on 184 carries this year. That's 4.93 YPA.
The QBs have 131 yards on 89 carries. That's 1.47 YPA.
This post was edited on 10/18/23 at 8:15 am
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