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SOGa+ College Football Rankings & FBS Picks - End of September Edition
Posted on 10/4/23 at 9:59 am
Posted on 10/4/23 at 9:59 am
- I think Ole Miss is too low and Rutgers too high. Guessing that has to do with the SoS and the limited number of games.
- Don't understand FSU being that low at all, but LSU dropping like a rock hurt them and they almost lost to #85 Boston College, which also hurts. Still, expect them to be Top 10, not #25. That will probably work its way out.
This post was edited on 10/4/23 at 2:34 pm
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Posted on 10/4/23 at 10:07 am to SummerOfGeorge
Posted on 10/4/23 at 10:09 am to SummerOfGeorge
Just for fun, here is how the rankings predict the rest of the season:
@ Texas A&M (L 22.4-21.6)
vs Arkansas (W 33-6)
vs Tennessee (W 28-18)
vs LSU (W 38-32)
@ Kentucky (W 21-17)
vs Chattanooga (W)
@ Auburn (W 21-13)
vs Georgia (L 22.4 - 22.3) (not kidding)
@ Texas A&M (L 22.4-21.6)
vs Arkansas (W 33-6)
vs Tennessee (W 28-18)
vs LSU (W 38-32)
@ Kentucky (W 21-17)
vs Chattanooga (W)
@ Auburn (W 21-13)
vs Georgia (L 22.4 - 22.3) (not kidding)
This post was edited on 10/4/23 at 2:37 pm
Posted on 10/4/23 at 10:17 am to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
vs Arkansas (W 35-6)
vs Tennessee (W 29-18)
vs LSU (W 42-31)
@ Kentucky (W 22-17)
vs Chattanooga (W)
@ Auburn (W 22-12)
quote:
@ Texas A&M (L 25-22)
quote:
vs Georgia (L 23.95 - 23.94) (not kidding)
Posted on 10/4/23 at 10:20 am to SummerOfGeorge
Basically best AM and we have a good shot.
Posted on 10/4/23 at 10:24 am to CrimsonBoz
I think we will beat them by 10 points or more.
Posted on 10/4/23 at 10:25 am to Panthers4life
There is so more variance to this weekend due to our game with USF being 20% of the weight for our offensive numbers and A&M's offensive numbers including Weigman's performance in the first 3.5 games.
I basically see it as a pick-um where the winner is the one who gets to 24-28 pts. Hopefully we can find some push in the run game like we did last year.
I basically see it as a pick-um where the winner is the one who gets to 24-28 pts. Hopefully we can find some push in the run game like we did last year.
This post was edited on 10/4/23 at 10:26 am
Posted on 10/4/23 at 10:27 am to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
There is so more variance to this weekend due to our game with USF being 20% of the weight for our offensive numbers
Just curious if you tested what our numbers look like if you remove that game?
Posted on 10/4/23 at 10:28 am to Sl0thstronautEsq
quote:
Just curious if you tested what our numbers look like if you remove that game?
Can't really do it because I use a bunch of total stats and not game by game stats, but it'd probably increase our offensive pts in general by 3-5 maybe? Something like that.
Defense wouldn't change much as their performance was basically the expected outcome in terms of points and yardage.
This post was edited on 10/4/23 at 10:30 am
Posted on 10/4/23 at 10:28 am to Sl0thstronautEsq
quote:
Just curious if you tested what our numbers look like if you remove that game?
They'd be higher.
Posted on 10/4/23 at 10:34 am to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
but it'd probably increase our offensive pts in general by 3-5 maybe?
Interesting! So would that elevate our overall ranking to the 3-5 range?
Posted on 10/4/23 at 10:37 am to Sl0thstronautEsq
quote:
Interesting! So would that elevate our overall ranking to the 3-5 range?
Yep - be somewhere in the #20-25 range overall on offense. #5-6 overall probably.
This post was edited on 10/4/23 at 10:38 am
Posted on 10/4/23 at 10:53 am to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
Georgia (L 23.95 - 23.94) (not kidding)
Looks like one of those gymnastics scores.
Posted on 10/4/23 at 11:01 am to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
@ Texas A&M (L 25-22)
Posted on 10/4/23 at 11:38 am to SummerOfGeorge
Thanks SOG for you dedicated work. 
Posted on 10/4/23 at 12:33 pm to SummerOfGeorge
The few things the model can't utilize that factor into this game:
1) The trajectory of the two teams development over the course of the year - Bama is much better today than in weeks 1-3.
2) The fact that A&M has a different QB now.
3) One of Bama's games was played with different QBs.
4) Jimbo being Jimbo and Saban being Saban.
How much and in what direction does this influence things? I don't know.
1) The trajectory of the two teams development over the course of the year - Bama is much better today than in weeks 1-3.
2) The fact that A&M has a different QB now.
3) One of Bama's games was played with different QBs.
4) Jimbo being Jimbo and Saban being Saban.
How much and in what direction does this influence things? I don't know.
This post was edited on 10/4/23 at 12:33 pm
Posted on 10/4/23 at 1:57 pm to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
vs Georgia (L 23.95 - 23.94) (not kidding)
I can buy this. I don’t think UGA is all that great at the moment. Don’t think they would’ve done any better if they had our schedule instead of their soft arse one. The narrative would be a lot different in the SEC if that were the case.
Now they can certainly improve, and I would expect them to, but they’re very fortunate that they didn’t play a top ten team in September. They also have something on offense that we don’t have: Brock Bowers.
Posted on 10/4/23 at 4:57 pm to FairhopeTider
We have something they don’t have. Nick Saban.
Posted on 10/5/23 at 8:12 am to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
Just for fun
not that fun
Posted on 10/5/23 at 2:32 pm to FairhopeTider
I still have zero faith in our ability to cover Bowers if we play them. Offense gotta get better by that point
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