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Ole Miss and Kiffin are at a crossroads. How do they finish the season?
Posted on 10/24/22 at 1:14 pm
Posted on 10/24/22 at 1:14 pm
While the LSU game was obviously the beginning of a brutal five game finish for them, at 3:30pm Saturday, #7 Ole Miss was undefeated, was up 14-3 and had a first down at LSU's 18 yard line and was absolutely unstoppable up to that point. I believe it is realistic to say NO ONE, not even the most myopic of LSU fans saw a 42-3 turnaround and complete Ole Miss collapse coming.
I feel like their near term future rides on these next four games, and the difference between their floor and ceiling is massive. They win out, and they are the new SEC West king. They lose out, and they are in the SEC West basement.
I do know, that at 3:30pm last Saturday, I thought I was looking at the odds on favorite to be SEC West champion. Its strange to see them as an afterthought on the following Monday. Yet, it is still only their first loss of the season and they are still a top 15 team who will undoubtedly be in CFP if they win out (LSU does not realistically win out).
Ive got them going 2-2 with a loss to Bama and being upset by Arkansas or State. A 9-3 finish and New Years bowl game would be a damn good season for the Rebels.
I feel like their near term future rides on these next four games, and the difference between their floor and ceiling is massive. They win out, and they are the new SEC West king. They lose out, and they are in the SEC West basement.
I do know, that at 3:30pm last Saturday, I thought I was looking at the odds on favorite to be SEC West champion. Its strange to see them as an afterthought on the following Monday. Yet, it is still only their first loss of the season and they are still a top 15 team who will undoubtedly be in CFP if they win out (LSU does not realistically win out).
Ive got them going 2-2 with a loss to Bama and being upset by Arkansas or State. A 9-3 finish and New Years bowl game would be a damn good season for the Rebels.
Posted on 10/24/22 at 1:19 pm to Basura Blanco
7-5 just like I predicted in June
Posted on 10/24/22 at 1:22 pm to Basura Blanco
If they can go 2-2, I think that is a successful season considering all the depth issues. LSU exposed that in spades Saturday.
Posted on 10/24/22 at 1:23 pm to Basura Blanco
I think they lose 1-2 more games. Bama for sure. They just aren't that good but I'm glad to see they have made tremendous progress and are a force in the West.
No chance they lose to State.
No chance they lose to State.
Posted on 10/24/22 at 1:24 pm to Basura Blanco
9-3 which is really good for us...not the end of the world if we go 8-4...7-5, well, that'll be bad...really bad.
Posted on 10/24/22 at 1:28 pm to themetalreb
8-4 would be tough, given the start, but that's about what i expected from this squad.
7-5 would be brutal.
9-3 would be really sweet.
7-5 would be brutal.
9-3 would be really sweet.
Posted on 10/24/22 at 1:36 pm to themetalreb
quote:
7-5, well, that'll be bad...really bad.
The only way I see that happening is if the second half last week was the norm for you guys. I don't think it was. My biggest concern would be the defense of course. After 2020, I was shocked last year at how solid of a defense Kiffin was able to put on the field.
If ole miss gives up 40 plus a game the rest of the way, I could see 2021 being considered a fluke year defensively going forward. Again, I dont expect to see that, but it would give me cause for concern.
Posted on 10/24/22 at 1:37 pm to Basura Blanco
10-2 is still on the table but 9-3 feels right given this is a “rebuild”
Dropping Arkansas on the road still feels like a huge possibility since we never play well there and they have a running QB. Only thing that gives me hope is they don’t have a defense either.
Dropping Arkansas on the road still feels like a huge possibility since we never play well there and they have a running QB. Only thing that gives me hope is they don’t have a defense either.
Posted on 10/24/22 at 1:38 pm to Basura Blanco
I think that Lane Kiffin has Ole Miss football at its ceiling, the fans and boosters need to realize this.. Ole Miss has one 5 star player on the roster, according to 24/7 sports in the SEC they have 9th most talented roster.. They won 10 games last year and are sitting at 7-1 right now. I know that it is hard for fan bases to want more and more, but you have to be realistic and realize what Kiffin has done for this program.
Posted on 10/24/22 at 1:39 pm to Basura Blanco
Their offense is good enough
The defense will never be a Kiffin strength
Just like LSU was getting shredded and made adjustments, Ole Miss never made any defensive adjustments.
Put another DT in the game might have helped in the second half.
The defense will never be a Kiffin strength
Just like LSU was getting shredded and made adjustments, Ole Miss never made any defensive adjustments.
Put another DT in the game might have helped in the second half.
Posted on 10/24/22 at 1:41 pm to RammerJammer28
quote:
RammerJammer28
Excellent post...some Ole Miss fans will not want to hear it, but that is the brutal reality.
Posted on 10/24/22 at 1:42 pm to Basura Blanco
quote:
While the LSU game was obviously the beginning of a brutal five game finish for them, at 3:30pm Saturday, #7 Ole Miss was undefeated, was up 14-3 and had a first down at LSU's 18 yard line and was absolutely unstoppable up to that point. I believe it is realistic to say NO ONE, not even the most myopic of LSU fans saw a 42-3 turnaround and complete Ole Miss collapse coming.
I feel like their near term future rides on these next four games, and the difference between their floor and ceiling is massive. They win out, and they are the new SEC West king. They lose out, and they are in the SEC West basement.
I do know, that at 3:30pm last Saturday, I thought I was looking at the odds on favorite to be SEC West champion. Its strange to see them as an afterthought on the following Monday. Yet, it is still only their first loss of the season and they are still a top 15 team who will undoubtedly be in CFP if they win out (LSU does not realistically win out).
Ive got them going 2-2 with a loss to Bama and being upset by Arkansas or State. A 9-3 finish and New Years bowl game would be a damn good season for the Rebels.
It's easy to forget that this was supposed to be a rebuilding year for Lane Kiffin and Ole Miss. In many ways, this team is still a box of parts, albeit pretty good parts, and I wasn't surprised to see Ole Miss struggle in its first true road test.
What we saw Saturday against LSU was much like what we saw the prior weekend against Auburn. Ole Miss was up on Auburn 21-0 and looked poised to slam the door shut; instead, the Rebels let Auburn back in the game. The same thing happened this week--Ole Miss was up 17-3 and had a chance to put LSU away with another stop and an offensive score. Instead, the defense gave way, LSU cut the margin to 17-10, the Tigers never looked back. LSU was a better team than Auburn, and Ole Miss was on the road instead of at home.
I'm just not a fan of this 3-2-6 defense. I'm not saying it can't work, but it seems to struggle against rushing attacks. If you've watched Ole Miss this season, you've seen its rushing vulnerabilities against Tulsa, Vanderbilt, and Auburn. They showed up again against a mobile QB at LSU.
To me, that means this defense is going to probably perform reasonably well against Jimbo's sad sack offense and Leach's Air Raid (although State is running the ball better than most Leach teams do). I think we're going to see the Rebels struggle against Alabama, and they'll be lucky to get out of Fayetteville with a win with the Hogs' rushing duo of Jefferson and Sanders.
9-3 might well be a pretty good guess, but that's a heck of a season for a team that lost so much from last year's 10-2 squad. For an Ole Miss "rebuilding" year, everything from here on out is gravy. Rebuilding years for us have often been brutal.
Next year we'll have to players, but the schedule won't be nearly as favorable. Wish we had next year's players with this year's schedule.
This post was edited on 10/24/22 at 1:43 pm
Posted on 10/24/22 at 1:44 pm to RammerJammer28
quote:
think that Lane Kiffin has Ole Miss football at its ceiling
He’s learning how to recruit high school players here which has been his biggest “fault” to this point. None of our skill position players outside of our star freshman RB are players that he recruited out of high school. Our class he has committed now is pretty solid. Currently have 10 4-stars committed in this class. Most of those guys committed are defensive players. Look for us to overhaul the roster again this offseason. Kiffin will keep doing it until it stops working. So far I think it’s working going heavy portal for us.
Posted on 10/24/22 at 1:44 pm to Basura Blanco
quote:
After 2020, I was shocked last year at how solid of a defense Kiffin was able to put on the field.
A lot of the credit for that turnaround belonged to Chase Campbell and Sam Williams. They are very clearly missed.
Posted on 10/24/22 at 1:52 pm to olemissfan26
quote:
Look for us to overhaul the roster again this offseason. Kiffin will keep doing it until it stops working. So far I think it’s working going heavy portal for us.
I keep hearing this a rebuilding year for Ole Miss. I don't have a reason to doubt that, but wouldn't this concept mean every year is going to be a rebuilding year? I agree with RammerJammer's post above. I believe Kiffin likely has you guys maxed out as far as overall success is concerned. And I do not know a lot of Rebel fans who wouldn't be ecstatic with 45 wins over a five year stretch.
Posted on 10/24/22 at 1:54 pm to NaturalStateReb
We tackled a lot better last year than we do this year. I don't know if that's talent, coaching, both, or neither.
Posted on 10/24/22 at 1:56 pm to RammerJammer28
quote:
I think that Lane Kiffin has Ole Miss football at its ceiling, the fans and boosters need to realize this.. Ole Miss has one 5 star player on the roster, according to 24/7 sports in the SEC they have 9th most talented roster.. They won 10 games last year and are sitting at 7-1 right now. I know that it is hard for fan bases to want more and more, but you have to be realistic and realize what Kiffin has done for this program.
Last year is a ceiling type year if we'd won (the sugar bowl). I think 11-2 is definitely ceiling. If there was ever a year we could have made it to atlanta, it was this year. Maybe last year's team with this year's setup could have done it.
Oh well.
This post was edited on 10/24/22 at 1:57 pm
Posted on 10/24/22 at 3:04 pm to Basura Blanco
quote:
don't have a reason to doubt that, but wouldn't this concept mean every year is going to be a rebuilding year?
Depends. Are you replacing a few key position players or are you breaking in a freshman QB? Since we are breaking in a QB who replaced Matt Corral and have a new DC and OC I would call that rebuilding.
Posted on 10/24/22 at 3:08 pm to msudawg1200
They are not going to lose out. I could see 2 losses in their next 4 games and finishing 9-3.
Posted on 10/24/22 at 3:14 pm to Basura Blanco
Gotta win 2 out of MSU , Arkansas and aTm and then it’s one hell of a rebuilding season.
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