Started By
Message
Initial impressions from numbers on Cincinnati - specifically their offense
Posted on 12/5/21 at 6:46 pm
Posted on 12/5/21 at 6:46 pm
These are not opponent adjusted, so Cincinnati's are inflated due to the nature of their opponents vs ours
Line Yards (OL) (basically a measure of how many rush yards can be directly attributable to the OL)
- Cincinnati Offense - 3.069 (#71)
- Alabama Defense - 2.340 (#2)
This matters quite a bit because of these stats
Standard Down Predicted Points Added
- Cincinnati Offense - 0.374 (#3)
- Alabama Defense - 0.012 (#13)
Passing Down Predicted Points Added
- Cincinnati Offense - 0.222 (#111)
- Alabama Defense - 0.176 (#14)
Rushing Predicted Points Added
- Cincinnati Offense - 0.289 (#12)
- Alabama Defense - (0.070) (#2)
Passing Predicted Points Added
- Cincinnati Offense - 0.381 (#35)
- Alabama Defense - 0.183 (#25)
Cincinnati is almost entirely dependent on their run game getting them ahead of the chains successfully. They are inept when they are forced into 2nd and 9+ or 3rd and 7+.
And.......they run the ball "efficiently" (4 yards, 5 yards, 4 yards, 6 yards, etc), but they do not run it explosively. And if they don't stay on schedule they fall apart.
TL/DR - We are a terrible matchup for their offense.
Line Yards (OL) (basically a measure of how many rush yards can be directly attributable to the OL)
- Cincinnati Offense - 3.069 (#71)
- Alabama Defense - 2.340 (#2)
This matters quite a bit because of these stats
Standard Down Predicted Points Added
- Cincinnati Offense - 0.374 (#3)
- Alabama Defense - 0.012 (#13)
Passing Down Predicted Points Added
- Cincinnati Offense - 0.222 (#111)
- Alabama Defense - 0.176 (#14)
Rushing Predicted Points Added
- Cincinnati Offense - 0.289 (#12)
- Alabama Defense - (0.070) (#2)
Passing Predicted Points Added
- Cincinnati Offense - 0.381 (#35)
- Alabama Defense - 0.183 (#25)
Cincinnati is almost entirely dependent on their run game getting them ahead of the chains successfully. They are inept when they are forced into 2nd and 9+ or 3rd and 7+.
And.......they run the ball "efficiently" (4 yards, 5 yards, 4 yards, 6 yards, etc), but they do not run it explosively. And if they don't stay on schedule they fall apart.
TL/DR - We are a terrible matchup for their offense.
This post was edited on 12/5/21 at 6:47 pm
11
Posted on 12/5/21 at 6:47 pm to SummerOfGeorge
Assuming there might be enough data to actually adjust for opponent
Posted on 12/5/21 at 6:50 pm to SummerOfGeorge
All the people clamoring for them to get into the playoffs should have to bet a paycheck on them winning a game.
Posted on 12/5/21 at 6:50 pm to UltimaParadox
quote:
Assuming there might be enough data to actually adjust for opponent
They are probably enough decently high rated offenses and defenses in the AAC to mess around with, but yea it's definitely hard to get a great idea of things.
But we definitely know that league isn't a P5 league and it's worse this year than it has been in the last 4-5 years. Last year or 2-3 years ago, that league could have made the argument that they were very close to equal to the P12. They've had a big falloff with UCF, Memphis and Navy all falling from being Top 20-25 level programs.
Posted on 12/5/21 at 8:30 pm to SummerOfGeorge
Looks like their defensive scheme is similar to Arkansas.
Posted on 12/5/21 at 8:45 pm to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
They are inept when they are forced into 2nd and 9+ or 3rd and 7+
Well, they haven't played against Golding yet.
Posted on 12/5/21 at 9:08 pm to SummerOfGeorge
I was about to ask how this team stacks up to teams like 2017 UCF, great Boise State teams, Utah, etc.
Posted on 12/5/21 at 10:14 pm to SummerOfGeorge
Just saw an interview with Ridder. He looks like he's divorced in late 40s, with 2 kids and alimony payments that are kicking his arse.
Posted on 12/5/21 at 10:17 pm to BFANLC
quote:
Looks like their defensive scheme is similar to Arkansas.
Without the same class of athlete. They're slow in the back end and tiny across the front. Cute story but they simply don't have the dudes for this kind of ball game.
Posted on 12/5/21 at 10:19 pm to SummerOfGeorge
In their 2 games vs P5
vs Notre Dame (#9 FEI Defense)
- 24 points
- 390 yards
- 297 passing yards (9.3 YPA)
- 93 rushing yards (3.1 YPA)
vs Indiana (#74 FEI Defense)
- 31 points (7 on kickoff return)
- 328 yards
- 210 passing yards (5.8 YPA)
- 118 rushing yards (3.3 YPA)
vs Notre Dame (#9 FEI Defense)
- 24 points
- 390 yards
- 297 passing yards (9.3 YPA)
- 93 rushing yards (3.1 YPA)
vs Indiana (#74 FEI Defense)
- 31 points (7 on kickoff return)
- 328 yards
- 210 passing yards (5.8 YPA)
- 118 rushing yards (3.3 YPA)
Posted on 12/5/21 at 10:58 pm to SummerOfGeorge
You might want to take a look at their 2nd and long, third and long situation. Their third down convesions rate against Power 5 school... interesting.
Posted on 12/5/21 at 11:01 pm to Panthers4life
quote:
You might want to take a look at their 2nd and long, third and long situation. Their third down convesions rate against Power 5 school... interesting.
Desmond Ridder (QB) - 3rd Down Stats
46.8%
5.5 YPA
4 TD/4 INT
27.3% 1st Downs
Desmond Ridder (QB) - 3rd Down and 10+
45.5%
5.5 YPA
0 TD/3 INT
13.6% 1st Downs
Cincinnati 3rd Down % vs FBS Winning Teams (5 games) = 33.93%
This post was edited on 12/5/21 at 11:03 pm
Posted on 12/5/21 at 11:09 pm to SummerOfGeorge
It was really weird during the College Football Playoff show they were talking about how the 3-3-5 scheme by Cincinnati was going to be a problem for Bama. I thought we did pretty well offensively versus Arkansas and Ole Miss.
Posted on 12/5/21 at 11:22 pm to Carlton
quote:
I thought we did pretty well offensively versus Arkansas and Ole Miss.
Jesse Palmer was talking about it like it was a foreign scheme we never see. 50% of our SEC West games are against teams that run the 3-3-5 (State, Ole Miss, Arkansas)
. And we absolutely annihilated all 3 of them.This post was edited on 12/5/21 at 11:24 pm
Posted on 12/6/21 at 12:50 am to SummerOfGeorge
3 of them picked UGA to beat us if we played again... I like it. Keep it up ESPN
Posted on 12/6/21 at 5:51 am to SummerOfGeorge
Jessie Palmer is a complete tool. They almost sounded desperate in wanting UGA to beat us.
Posted on 12/6/21 at 5:59 am to SummerOfGeorge
The Notre Dame game is even less impressive when you realize that they got a TD after ND threw a pick at their own 25 which Cindy returned to the ND 8.
ND then fumbled the ensuing kickoff and set Cindy up at the ND 17, giving them another 3 points.
ND then fumbled the ensuing kickoff and set Cindy up at the ND 17, giving them another 3 points.
Posted on 12/6/21 at 7:14 am to JustGetItRight
This is one of those years where the BCS would have been a better option. Cincy and UGA don't deserve a shot at a championship but both get one. Although admittedly that is most years. The playoff was created because of that deserving third team who got excluded by the BCS every few years, but they didn't want to do a +1 after the bowl games for some reason.
This post was edited on 12/6/21 at 7:16 am
Posted on 12/6/21 at 7:46 am to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
Desmond Ridder (QB) - 3rd Down Stats 46.8% 5.5 YPA 4 TD/4 INT
27.3% 1st Downs
Desmond Ridder (QB) - 3rd Down and 10+ 45.5% 5.5 YPA 0 TD/3 INT
13.6% 1st Downs
Cincinnati 3rd Down % vs FBS Winning Teams (5 games) = 33.93%
And Ridder is arguably the 2nd best Quarterback in the playoffs. Biiiiiig Tide advantage
Posted on 12/6/21 at 7:58 am to SummerOfGeorge
quote:Agreed. Closest to Bama's defense they have seen is Houston.
TL/DR - We are a terrible matchup for their offense.
Really difficult to look at the two universes and find solid statistical comparisons. On paper we have played against much tougher offenses and similar defenses.
Heart says we destroy them, head says "Who?".
If we show up to play we should be ok. If we don't we'll be in a dog fight. I'm thinking we get BRob healthy and are more balanced than we have been down the stretch. 
Page 1 of 3
Latest Alabama News
Popular
Back to top
Follow SECRant for SEC Football News