Summary of Current Information

Fleeced from Rivals, folks giving him props, etc... Not a lot of new information, but IMHO, tells the entire story. (The poster does seem to have e-cred)

Some information given to me by someone I know with about 30 years dealing with AU Coaches, Players, and BOT Members who gave me permission to share the information, as long as I do not identify them specifically:

Chizik - Less than 10% chance he comes back now, and likely much less than that really. For him to survive, AU would likely have to win out, go to a bowl, or at lest win an SEC game, or score a big upset against uga or uat. The announcement will likely not be made public until the end of the season (85-90% likelihood), but there is a 10-15% chance it could come before then if things get really bad. Just a few weeks ago, CGC had a better than 50-50 chance of surviving by agreeing to modify his staff and coming up with a plan to get the program where it needs to be.

Jay Jacobs - Probably less than 10% chance of making it to 2013 now. He tied his cart to the CGC hire (and subsequent contract extension/buyout agreement) and likely dies with it now. Some personal isssues also exist between Gougue and Jacobs.

Pat Dye - Does not really run things, but still involved in decisions made, and heavily invested in the current staff and personnel at AU, including Jackson, Jacobs, and Bolt.

Lowder - Although he is no longer on the BOT, he is still involved in the background as a booster and still has an influence over AU athletics.

Petrino - Many think Lowder led the original pursuit of Petrino to replace Tubberville, but it was actually another powerful booster (McWhorter) who led the charge (at least publically) and flew to Louisville (on Lowder's Plane) along with Housel and then President Walker. Although both of them are no longer on the BOT, their influence as boosters is still felt, especially when it comes to AU football. Of the current BOT members, 3 of the most powerful 5 members are are part of the old Lowder click who pursued Petrino in 2003. At least two other BOT members are also part of that click.

VanGorder - Depending on who the HC is next year, he may be kept as DC and allowed to hire his own staff, likely replacing 2 of the current defensive assistants. Even though the VanGorder-Wayne Bolt incident was publically denied by Chizik, it did happen.

Coaching Search - Unless Jacobs or Chizik somehow survives, look for AU to appoint a designated committee to conduct the search for a new coach and/or AD given the timeline and situation. Early candidates include Petrino, Jimbo Fisher, Strong, and possibly several others.

Power Struggle - Some of the power struggle within the AU Football Program goes back to the Shug era vs Dye era guys, as well as new BOT members vs old BOT members (several new ones as of Apr 2012), and Athletics vs Education-oriented BOT members.

Gogue - His letter today was indicative in both what it included and did not include, and the fact that HE wrote it to begin with. Typically, this letter would come from the AD's office. It did not mention the HC or AD or any support for them, while encouraging support for the players and empathizing with the fans and students and calling for patience while indicating a plan is in place.

Most of this is really not new, but is consistent with some of the information already shared. Although I agree with a lot of this information, I have tried to only include what I was told without editing or adding anything to it. I will add my own thoughts at a later time, and you are welcome to as well. We have spoken 3x so far regarding these situations. Although I have a direct connection to the AU Football Program, I do not consider myself an insider.