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re: Lanier and you folks on the coast stay safe, that thing is a monster.
Posted on 10/8/24 at 1:37 pm to jt33
Posted on 10/8/24 at 1:37 pm to jt33
quote:
If you're in Fla, I know you all are better prepared,
Some are some aren't. We will see. There is a general panic among some folks and some are not so much. Some of us who have lived here a long time have ridden through some bad ones and have made improvements to our homes to help. We will finish up preps tomorrow as the eye is expected to run right over me now. Will test the generator again tomorrow. sorry to hear about your porch. It is weird about power during IAN AMI had power but inland we lost it. More worried about trees hitting houses than much else. Storm surge will be bad as it will affect folks at the end of my street and on the river & bay but we are pretty high off the water in comparison.
I feel bad for the folks up in the TN & NC along with GA who have had a mess of the times with this one. The land slides and roads washing out are a long time for repair.
2
Posted on 10/8/24 at 1:46 pm to 88TIger
LINK
If anyone is interested in seeing how the evacuation is going in parts of the state...the link above has some live FDOT feeds. There is more around the state. And it took some friend of ours 12 hours to do what normally takes less than 5. Couldn't find any gas for a long time and accommodations so they finally found some in Auburn so they are headed there....
If anyone is interested in seeing how the evacuation is going in parts of the state...the link above has some live FDOT feeds. There is more around the state. And it took some friend of ours 12 hours to do what normally takes less than 5. Couldn't find any gas for a long time and accommodations so they finally found some in Auburn so they are headed there....
Posted on 10/8/24 at 3:04 pm to 88TIger
I’ve lived in Baldwin county my whole life and rode out every storm at home. Took a direct hit from Erin, Ivan, and Sally. Ivan was making the house creak and pop when the strong gust would him and Sally just would not end, that was a long night, got some flood water in the house, had to flex seal the front door to keep the water out and it did help. Not fun to deal with, definitely praying for all in the path.
Posted on 10/9/24 at 6:28 am to 88TIger
quote:Just a heads up, not that you sound like you needs one, but the intensity of wind increases the higher you go.
More worried about trees hitting houses than much else. Storm surge will be bad as it will affect folks at the end of my street and on the river & bay but we are pretty high off the water in comparison.
One forecaster remarked those with a decreased risk for surge (evacuation elevation d/e) were going to likely see higher wind. Not to discourage or change your mind. However I will preach about everyone keeping a good life jacket handy. People really don't swim very well in that type of water, too much debris, too swift, and the current differential can get you rolling/tumbling . This can keep someone from staying above water.
Stay safe, good luck, and best wishes.
Just remember if all else fails and swimming, keep your feet up and ahead of you, it'll help protect from the hardest hits. And also help give your brain/hands time to keep you out of a bad place. BTW: Standing tree tops with water running through them the suck.... (really suck) ....think tea strainer and being plastered flat. And this happens its way too fast and almost impossible to undo. I have personally seen this in person and to others.
Posted on 10/9/24 at 8:04 am to awestruck
quote:
BTW: Standing tree tops with water running through them the suck.... (really suck) ....think tea strainer and being plastered flat.
I almost lost my wife to one a couple of years back when we were kayaking at Big Canoe Creek Outfitters in Springville. Water was only about 4 feet but swift and she got swept under in seconds and got lodged below another tree which was down and started spinning. Scariest day of my life.
As of now, the storm has shifted south and about to directly hit Sarasota.
Posted on 10/9/24 at 8:35 am to BrounHaller
My wife lost her upper bathing suit while kayaking one time. I fell while kayaking so many times ill never do it again.
We can save that conversation for another day. Good luck Florida boys
We can save that conversation for another day. Good luck Florida boys
Posted on 10/9/24 at 8:45 am to BrounHaller
quote:
Big Canoe Creek Outfitters in Springville.
Other than almost dying, how was this? Wife and I canoe and fish all over the state. Big Canoe and Big Wills are both on my list to-do along with Terrapin.
Posted on 10/9/24 at 9:14 am to awestruck
I used to live in Clearwater Beach and had family who lived in nearby St. Pete Beach for decades. They have moved out of the area into North FL so all is good.
Even though I haven't been down there in 15 years, I love the area and hope it doesn't get wiped out. It's one of the best towns in the U.S.
Even though I haven't been down there in 15 years, I love the area and hope it doesn't get wiped out. It's one of the best towns in the U.S.
Posted on 10/9/24 at 9:15 am to trinidadtiger
We are getting the heavy rain right now but the strong winds have not started yet here in Land O Lakes. Prayers to all of you guys in the path of the storm!
Posted on 10/9/24 at 10:35 am to Aubie Spr96
quote:
Other than almost dying, how was this? Wife and I canoe and fish all over the state. Big Canoe and Big Wills are both on my list to-do along with Terrapin.
Yeah it was actually pretty awesome! They are a small family owned business (may have gotten bigger) and it’s good for the entire family including the kids. Just make sure if you are going after significant rain that you are comfortable with the flow rate. Our first trip was awesome, just a lazy drift in a nice shady forest route. Next one we didn’t take into account how swift it was after rains and miscalculated. Not only was my wife stuck, but as I was getting her out, our then 9-yr old daughter drifted off and it took a good 20+ min to get to her.
Posted on 10/9/24 at 11:05 am to BrounHaller
Was it an all day deal?
Posted on 10/9/24 at 11:16 am to Aubie Spr96
One hour round trip from Bhm. They do have a three hour time limit.
Posted on 10/9/24 at 11:39 am to BrounHaller
Let's hope the shear keep weakening the storm-
Hurricane Milton Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
1100 AM EDT Wed Oct 09 2024
Milton's structure has begun to change due to the onset of strong
southwesterly shear, which UW-CIMSS is analyzing to be 30-35 kt.
The cloud canopy has become more asymmetric with dry air
infiltrating the western side of the circulation, and the eye has
also become cloud filled. The NOAA and Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunters observed that the eye is open to the south, and a
very recent dropsonde indicates that the minimum pressure is up to
931 mb. Milton's intensity is therefore set at 125 kt on this
advisory.
Deep-layer shear is expected to increase further today and this
evening, and continued weakening is anticipated. However, since
Milton only has another 12 hours or so over water, it is expected
to still be a major hurricane when it makes landfall tonight. The
NHC intensity forecast lies between the statistical-dynamical models
and the consensus aids at 12 hours, meaning that Milton is likely
to be a category 3 or 4 strength at landfall. A slow decay in the
winds is expected after landfall, but Milton is anticipated to move
off the east coast of Florida on Thursday still as a hurricane. On
another note, Milton is expected to begin interacting with a front
later this evening, which is likely to cause the wind field to
expand on the hurricane's northwestern side. This will likely
cause very strong, gusty winds to occur even to the north of where
Milton makes landfall.
Milton is moving quickly toward the northeast (035/15 kt). The
track models insist that the hurricane will continue to move
northeastward but slow down through the rest of today, with a turn
toward the east-northeast occurring overnight. The NHC track
forecast maintains continuity with the previous predictions, lying
near the northern boundary of the guidance envelope and close to
where the raw model fields bring the center onshore.
We would like to emphasize that Milton's exact landfall location is
not possible to predict even at this time, particularly if the
hurricane wobbles during the day and into this evening. Even at
12-24 hours, NHC's track forecasts can be off by an average of 20-30
nm. Since storm surge forecasts are highly sensitive to the exact
track, this means that the realized storm surge heights across the
Tampa Bay region and south may vary widely, and there will likely be
a noticeable gradient of surge heights to the north of the landfall
location. However, the risk of devastating storm surge still exists
across much of the west-central and southwest coast of Florida given
the size of the storm and the uncertainties in exactly where
landfall will occur.
Finally, damaging winds, life-threatening storm surge, and heavy
rainfall will extend well outside the forecast cone. This is a very
serious situation and residents in Florida should closely follow
orders from their local emergency management officials. Evacuations
and other preparations should be completed over the next couple of
hours.
Key Messages:
1. A large area of destructive storm surge, with highest inundations
of 10 ft or greater, is expected along a portion of the west-central
coast of the Florida Peninsula. If you are in the Storm Surge
Warning area, this is an extremely life-threatening situation. The
time to evacuate, if told to do so by local officials, is quickly
coming to a close.
2. Devastating hurricane-force winds are expected along portions of
the west coast of Florida, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect.
Milton is forecast to remain a hurricane while it crosses the
Florida Peninsula and life-threatening hurricane-force winds,
especially in gusts, are expected to spread inland across the
peninsula. Preparations to protect life and property, including
being ready for long-duration power outages, should be rushed to
completion.
3. Heavy rainfall across the Florida Peninsula through Thursday
brings the risk of catastrophic and life-threatening flash and urban
flooding along with moderate to major river flooding, especially in
areas where coastal and inland flooding combine to increase the
overall flood threat.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 09/1500Z 25.8N 84.3W 125 KT 145 MPH
12H 10/0000Z 27.0N 83.0W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 10/1200Z 28.0N 81.1W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND
36H 11/0000Z 28.7N 78.3W 65 KT 75 MPH...OVER WATER
48H 11/1200Z 29.1N 75.1W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 12/0000Z 29.3N 72.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 12/1200Z 29.9N 68.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 13/1200Z 31.4N 62.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 14/1200Z 32.8N 55.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
$$
Forecaster Berg
Hurricane Milton Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
1100 AM EDT Wed Oct 09 2024
Milton's structure has begun to change due to the onset of strong
southwesterly shear, which UW-CIMSS is analyzing to be 30-35 kt.
The cloud canopy has become more asymmetric with dry air
infiltrating the western side of the circulation, and the eye has
also become cloud filled. The NOAA and Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunters observed that the eye is open to the south, and a
very recent dropsonde indicates that the minimum pressure is up to
931 mb. Milton's intensity is therefore set at 125 kt on this
advisory.
Deep-layer shear is expected to increase further today and this
evening, and continued weakening is anticipated. However, since
Milton only has another 12 hours or so over water, it is expected
to still be a major hurricane when it makes landfall tonight. The
NHC intensity forecast lies between the statistical-dynamical models
and the consensus aids at 12 hours, meaning that Milton is likely
to be a category 3 or 4 strength at landfall. A slow decay in the
winds is expected after landfall, but Milton is anticipated to move
off the east coast of Florida on Thursday still as a hurricane. On
another note, Milton is expected to begin interacting with a front
later this evening, which is likely to cause the wind field to
expand on the hurricane's northwestern side. This will likely
cause very strong, gusty winds to occur even to the north of where
Milton makes landfall.
Milton is moving quickly toward the northeast (035/15 kt). The
track models insist that the hurricane will continue to move
northeastward but slow down through the rest of today, with a turn
toward the east-northeast occurring overnight. The NHC track
forecast maintains continuity with the previous predictions, lying
near the northern boundary of the guidance envelope and close to
where the raw model fields bring the center onshore.
We would like to emphasize that Milton's exact landfall location is
not possible to predict even at this time, particularly if the
hurricane wobbles during the day and into this evening. Even at
12-24 hours, NHC's track forecasts can be off by an average of 20-30
nm. Since storm surge forecasts are highly sensitive to the exact
track, this means that the realized storm surge heights across the
Tampa Bay region and south may vary widely, and there will likely be
a noticeable gradient of surge heights to the north of the landfall
location. However, the risk of devastating storm surge still exists
across much of the west-central and southwest coast of Florida given
the size of the storm and the uncertainties in exactly where
landfall will occur.
Finally, damaging winds, life-threatening storm surge, and heavy
rainfall will extend well outside the forecast cone. This is a very
serious situation and residents in Florida should closely follow
orders from their local emergency management officials. Evacuations
and other preparations should be completed over the next couple of
hours.
Key Messages:
1. A large area of destructive storm surge, with highest inundations
of 10 ft or greater, is expected along a portion of the west-central
coast of the Florida Peninsula. If you are in the Storm Surge
Warning area, this is an extremely life-threatening situation. The
time to evacuate, if told to do so by local officials, is quickly
coming to a close.
2. Devastating hurricane-force winds are expected along portions of
the west coast of Florida, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect.
Milton is forecast to remain a hurricane while it crosses the
Florida Peninsula and life-threatening hurricane-force winds,
especially in gusts, are expected to spread inland across the
peninsula. Preparations to protect life and property, including
being ready for long-duration power outages, should be rushed to
completion.
3. Heavy rainfall across the Florida Peninsula through Thursday
brings the risk of catastrophic and life-threatening flash and urban
flooding along with moderate to major river flooding, especially in
areas where coastal and inland flooding combine to increase the
overall flood threat.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 09/1500Z 25.8N 84.3W 125 KT 145 MPH
12H 10/0000Z 27.0N 83.0W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 10/1200Z 28.0N 81.1W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND
36H 11/0000Z 28.7N 78.3W 65 KT 75 MPH...OVER WATER
48H 11/1200Z 29.1N 75.1W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 12/0000Z 29.3N 72.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 12/1200Z 29.9N 68.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 13/1200Z 31.4N 62.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 14/1200Z 32.8N 55.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
$$
Forecaster Berg
Posted on 10/9/24 at 11:46 am to bluedragon
quote:
Sarasota will get some wind and rain ......that's all
I thought it was dead arse headed towards Sarasota?? St. Armand's is still fricked up from Helene I believe.
Posted on 10/9/24 at 12:20 pm to Leto II
quote:
I thought it was dead arse headed towards Sarasota?? St. Armand's is still fricked up from Helene I believe.
Yea, unfortunately, we are in the eye. I posted these pics earlier but we are all tightened up the best we can be. I know its going to be a terrifying night.
Its been raining all day and getting some pretty good gusts already.
Will try to keep in touch as possible. Hope 88 is OK. Dude is going to be riding the lightning out there in Cortez. I honestly hope all this is still here tomorrow. If not, I will have to move in with one of you guys.
Posted on 10/9/24 at 12:34 pm to LanierSpots
Good luck, Lanier! Good idea to take before pictures with date/time stamps. Make sure these are uploaded to a cloud drive. If prudent to do so, turn off gas (not at the meter, but if you have individual valves for different gas appliances) and water and drain/burn off before the shite hits the fan. These may prevent flooding/fires inside in a worst case scenario. Fill bath tubs, soaking tubs with water, soapy water in sinks to wash hands and some stored water to pour into commodes for flushing if needed.
Hope everything turns out alright!
Hope everything turns out alright!
Posted on 10/9/24 at 1:39 pm to LanierSpots
You crazy. Good luck.
Just because we don’t like you doesn’t mean we want you to die.
Stay safe.
Just because we don’t like you doesn’t mean we want you to die.
Stay safe.
Posted on 10/9/24 at 1:55 pm to wareaglepete
quote:
Just because we don’t like you
Posted on 10/9/24 at 1:58 pm to LanierSpots
Ok, will like, just until the storm passes.
Posted on 10/9/24 at 2:13 pm to wareaglepete
Tornadoes warnings are going up like crazy. Central Florida in the crosshairs.
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