re: Auburn vs. Mississippi State Predictions

I think Gus wants a beat down this year, to pay back for last year. I'm thinking 38-13 Auburn.

41-17 good guys I think the OL and DL took last year personal and they’ll be ready to prove something.

AU 35
MSU 21

Auburn hitting groove, should be going into LSU showdown unbeaten

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Unless Auburn stumbles over its next three games -- Saturday at home against Mississippi State, next week at Florida and then Arkansas in Fayetteville -- there is no reason not to believe the last Saturday in October won’t be must-see TV.

It’s not a gimme, but Auburn should be 7-0 and ranked in the top 10 for its Oct. 26 meeting against LSU. Its opponent should be 7-0 and ranked in the top 10. They’re both in the top 10 this week and will be favored in every game leading up to their showdown in Baton Rouge.

The one team that could derail the script is No. 9 Florida. No. 7 Auburn has to travel to Gainesville. No. 4 LSU gets the Gators at home. We’re not forgetting about Mississippi State, but Auburn is favored by 12 points to defeat the 3-1 Bulldogs Saturday in Jordan-Hare Stadium.

LSU will be a double-digit favorite over the Bulldogs in its Oct. 19 game in Baton Rouge.
Auburn is playing lights out on defense and improving on offense thanks in no small part to true freshman quarterback Bo Nix performing like he’s some veteran.

Maybe coach Gus Malzahn wasn’t whistling Dixie back in July at SEC Media Days when he told reporters the 2019 Tigers had “some of the same characteristics” as the 2010 national championship team and the 2013 national title runner-up.

So far, Malzahn is making the running game work without an elite runner and the offense is getting big plays from Nix and receivers Seth Williams and Anthony Schwartz. Would Nix, Williams and Schwartz start at Alabama or LSU? Very doubtful. Yet you would be hard-pressed to find a team with two bigger wins than Auburn 27, Oregon 21 and Auburn 28, Texas A&M 20.

Taking care of State this weekend will ease the sting from last year’s 23-9 humbling in Starkville. A year ago, State was on life support after losing consecutive SEC games to Kentucky and Florida and badly needed an upset of then No. 8 Auburn to turn around its season.

A loss and State would have dropped to 3-3 overall and 0-3 in the SEC.
Coach Joe Moorehead doesn’t have Nick Fitzgerald to torment Kevin Steele’s defense, or a defensive line that had two players taken in the first round of the NFL Draft.

This is not a dominating State defense, nothing like last year when the Bulldogs held Auburn to 90 yards rushing and 3-of-14 on third down.

What State has this year is an average at best defense, a terrific running back in Kylin Hill and a quarterback dilemma with starter Tommy Stevens not likely to be full speed with a shoulder injury, which is probably good news with backup Garrett Shrader more of a dual threat.

Against Steele’s defense, State is going to need Shrader’s improvisation and ability to extend a play with his feet.

This week’s picks:

Mississippi State vs Auburn
It’s time to give Auburn kudos for a 4-0 start. A lot of that has to do with the defense, one of the Tigers’ best in years. The offense relies a lot on eye candy, but if it works it works. Yes, the passing game could be better but the running game has enough punch and trickery to drive the defense nuts. And Malzahn is playing it smart with Nix, giving him just enough of the offense to make the defense have to spend time on his running as well as his arm that makes just enough plays to get first downs.

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Nationally, the former Pinson Valley star isn’t wowing anyone with his stats -- 111th in the nation in passing percentage, 103rd in passing efficiency, 93rd in passing yards and 69th in passing touchdowns. In this day of dynamic and explosive offenses, LSU’s Joe Burrow and Alabama’s Tagovailoa each have 17 touchdown passes. Nix has five. But that’s not going to matter against State.
Auburn 35, Mississippi State 14

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Would Nix, Williams and Schwartz start at Alabama or LSU? Very doubtful.

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I’d be willing to bet Williams would start for both of those teams.

5 burning questions with a Mississippi State beat writer

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1. How has MSU dealt with Tommy Stevens' injury, and will the quarterback start against Auburn?

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The whole quarterback situation has been tricky for Joe Moorhead this season. Stevens is still listed day-to-day by Moorhead and if Stevens can't start then it will be true freshman Garrett Shrader drawing his second straight start (and first road start). Shrader has handled himself well so far but the road gets tougher from here on out.

To complicate matters, junior quarterback Keytaon Thompson is also banged up and he has not seen action this year. With the Bulldogs having an open date next week, it would not surprise me to see the staff rest Stevens again this week to help his goal of being 100 percent healthy. With that factor, I'm leaning toward Shrader getting the start at Auburn.

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2. What's the strength of running back Kylin Hill? Does he have a weakness?

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Kylin has a rare blend of power and speed, and is in the best shape of his life in his college career. He dropped a few pounds in the offseason yet has maintained his physicality between the tackles. Last year he struggled with pass protection at times and that area has gotten better this season. That is probably the lone weakness of his game. Mississippi State has more of a passing threat this season, which has helped open things up for Kylin even more this year.

With Nick Fitzgerald no longer at quarterback, Hill is also getting more opportunities. Last season for the entire year he rushed 117 times and after four games this year, he's already rushed the ball 91 times.

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3. How has MSU's defense responded in the wake of losing so many talented stars from the nation's No. 1 defense last season?

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Not good so far and that was somewhat expected with the loss of Johnathan Abram, Jeffery Simmons and Montez Sweat among others. What has hurt even more is the suspensions of several defensive players for the 2019 season. As noted, the Bulldogs have 10 players that must sit eight games this season due to what Bulldog fans call 'Tutor Gate.' That includes starting defensive tackle Lee Autry, starting linebacker Willie Gay and key secondary backup Marcus Murphy.

Gay played his first game of the season last week against Kentucky and quickly made an impact with a Pick 6 on his first defensive play of the year. Mississippi State's defense is better when those suspended guys are able to play but I don't expect them to play this weekend against Auburn. It's been a challenging situation for the defensive coaches and Moorhead to determine which games (four) to play those guys.

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4. What's the key to MSU winning a game against top-10 Auburn on the road?

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While the defense is not the elite defense we saw last year, the Bulldogs have forced 11 turnovers thus far and that ranks second in the SEC. That trend will need to continue on Saturday for the Bulldogs to stay in the game with Auburn. Obviously, they need Kylin Hill and the offensive line to have some success against Auburn's defensive front and that will be a tall task. If it is Garrett Shrader making his first SEC road start, he will have to limit his turnovers and that has been an issue in the previous two weeks.

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5. How do you see this game developing? If you feel like sharing, what's your score prediction?

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I just have to think that Auburn holds a major advantage with its run defense and that talented defensive front. Most SEC games are determined in the trenches and this one will likely follow suit.

Auburn also has a true freshman at quarterback so I expect defensive coordinator Bob Shoop to send a lot of blitzes from various spots on the field. I do expect Auburn to find success on the ground against Mississippi State's young defensive line and I could see the Tigers winning a 27-13 type of game.

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27-17 AU.

Two concerns:
-our RBs with Miss State leading nation in fumbles recovered;
-and our developing LBs against mobile QB scrambles/designed runs since we haven't seen the OLBs get edge pressure much and LBs have needed to improve covering routes in the middle of the field.

Hoping Bo hits a deep pass today, continues working his short game reads, and that Whitlows vision/motor continues to improve, esp 2nd half since Gus hinted on TT we likely see delayed reps continue.

42-21 for your Auburn Tigers

Should have added a trash TD for us late too