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What is the better post season scenario?
Posted on 5/11/26 at 1:33 pm
Posted on 5/11/26 at 1:33 pm
As of now, we're outside the top 16 in both RPI and DSR. If we host, we've likely taken 2 of 3 from UK and get the benefit of the doubt because of the crowd we guarantee.
That being said, there's a good chance we're a 15 or 16 seed, lining us up for a super regional against UCLA or GA Tech. Maybe we slip into a 13 or 14 which might line us up with a potential super regional against UNC or UGA, again, not ideal (but better than the first two options IMO).
However, if we end up a 2 seed somewhere, there's a good chance we could end up at Coastal or KU and potentially teamed up for supers with a 6 or 8 seed?
Either way, the road's gonna be tough with our lack of pitching depth.
That being said, there's a good chance we're a 15 or 16 seed, lining us up for a super regional against UCLA or GA Tech. Maybe we slip into a 13 or 14 which might line us up with a potential super regional against UNC or UGA, again, not ideal (but better than the first two options IMO).
However, if we end up a 2 seed somewhere, there's a good chance we could end up at Coastal or KU and potentially teamed up for supers with a 6 or 8 seed?
Either way, the road's gonna be tough with our lack of pitching depth.
This post was edited on 5/11/26 at 1:34 pm
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Posted on 5/11/26 at 1:50 pm to cubsfan5150
16 seed all day long. It’ll be harder for this team to win a regional than a super. I’d rather have the buam magic for a regional.
With Dietz on the mound we match up well with anyone. Then we have enough pitching left to keep one more game close enough for the bats to win.
I don’t see us coming out of a losers bracket at any point.
With Dietz on the mound we match up well with anyone. Then we have enough pitching left to keep one more game close enough for the bats to win.
I don’t see us coming out of a losers bracket at any point.
Posted on 5/11/26 at 2:09 pm to Poker_hog
16 seed pairs us with 1 UCLA, not a bad draw at all. They've played 4 ranked teams all year and only 2 that were weekend series in conf play over the last 2 months. They didn't look great vs Oregon this past weekend coming back on Sunday from 6-1 down in the 6th after losing Saturday 9-6.
They'd probably shell our pitching enough in a game 3 that it wouldn't matter if we scored 10 or so like yesterday.
They'd probably shell our pitching enough in a game 3 that it wouldn't matter if we scored 10 or so like yesterday.
Posted on 5/11/26 at 2:56 pm to UltimateHog
yeah... hope we can host a regional but honestly I'm not sold on this team being able to take 2-3 on the road in a super with how shaky our pitching has been.
Hope I'm wrong.....
Hope I'm wrong.....
Posted on 5/12/26 at 4:38 am to ElDawgHawg
I think we need past the idea of hosting – it’s almost certainly not happening.
Our schedule was too soft this year, and we’re currently at 26 in the RPI. Even if we sweep Kentucky, it’s most likely not going to cover enough ground.
I just don’t think we have the pitching to get out of a regional this year, especially if we have to throw Dietz in the 2-3 seed game. Unless you take your chances and start Gaeckle in game 1, but Game 3 is still looming.
We just don’t have that backend of the rotation guy, and Game 3 has been our kryptonite this season. We’ve lost 7 Game 3’s of series this year — Stetson, USC, Florida, Auburn, Georgia, Missouri, and OU. We’re giving up an average of 10 runs on those games.
The key to a regional is going the 2022 route and just blowing teams’ doors off and out hitting them.
Our schedule was too soft this year, and we’re currently at 26 in the RPI. Even if we sweep Kentucky, it’s most likely not going to cover enough ground.
I just don’t think we have the pitching to get out of a regional this year, especially if we have to throw Dietz in the 2-3 seed game. Unless you take your chances and start Gaeckle in game 1, but Game 3 is still looming.
We just don’t have that backend of the rotation guy, and Game 3 has been our kryptonite this season. We’ve lost 7 Game 3’s of series this year — Stetson, USC, Florida, Auburn, Georgia, Missouri, and OU. We’re giving up an average of 10 runs on those games.
The key to a regional is going the 2022 route and just blowing teams’ doors off and out hitting them.
This post was edited on 5/12/26 at 4:40 am
Posted on 5/12/26 at 6:13 am to Feral
quote:
I think we need past the idea of hosting – it’s almost certainly not happening. Our schedule was too soft this year, and we’re currently at 26 in the RPI. Even if we sweep Kentucky, it’s most likely not going to cover enough ground.
18 SEC win Arkansas team will host every single time. Nobody cares about our midweek or preseason games.
Posted on 5/12/26 at 6:35 am to Poker_hog
If we take 2 of 3 or better from Kentucky and win a couple of games in the SECT we can probably get our RPI into the top 20 or low 20s and host. AI puts it at about a 20-35% chance and up to 45% with a KY series win.
A 2 seed in Lawrence may better than hosting as a 15-16 anyways.
So it is certainly possible to host with an rpi in the 20's, typically one or two every season and an SEC team at that.
A 2 seed in Lawrence may better than hosting as a 15-16 anyways.
quote:
Here’s data from the last decade showing the lowest-RPI host each year (focusing on low 20s or worse):
2025: Southern Miss (~No. 19)
2024: Arizona (No. 31–35) — notable outlier due to Pac-12 title and strong non-conference SOS
2023: Auburn (~No. 19–30 range; one of two outside top 16)
2022: Texas A&M (No. 22)
2021: Louisiana Tech (No. 27)
2019: Ole Miss (No. 22)
2018: Coastal Carolina (No. 25)
2017: Houston (No. 19)
2016: Virginia (No. 23)
2015: Louisville (No. 24)
Average of these lowest hosts: Around No. 24.
So it is certainly possible to host with an rpi in the 20's, typically one or two every season and an SEC team at that.
This post was edited on 5/12/26 at 6:44 am
Posted on 5/12/26 at 6:56 am to Feral
quote:
The key to a regional
Is rain starting on Saturday night and not stopping until Monday morning.
Posted on 5/14/26 at 2:41 pm to cubsfan5150
I've seen projections of us going to West Virginia matched up with the Austin Regional. Wouldn't really hate that.
Posted on 5/14/26 at 8:18 pm to cubsfan5150
Woof
No chance of hosting now.
No chance of hosting now.
Posted on 5/14/26 at 10:10 pm to ArHog
We have zero chance of winning the next two?
Posted on 5/15/26 at 5:43 am to cubsfan5150
We likely weren’t hosting even if we swept this weekend. Dropping game 1 basically ensures it, unless we win the next 2 and make a run at Hoover.
Posted on 5/15/26 at 5:47 am to Drewbie
quote:
I've seen projections of us going to West Virginia
ESPN has been saying Tallahassee for weeks, but I noticed they’d updated it to Eugene last night.
Not sure of the Supers pairings, but I wouldn’t mind either of those. FSU has been gettable this year, and UO’s schedule was soft as baby shite until these last 2 weekends.
Posted on 5/15/26 at 6:09 am to Feral
UO, Kansas, WVU would all be great IMO. UO can hit though even hit UCLA pitching on the road well last weekend.
Posted on 5/15/26 at 7:51 am to cubsfan5150
quote:
We have zero chance of winning the next two?
40% if the bats wake up. Pitching is arse.
Posted on 5/15/26 at 8:08 am to Feral
quote:
We likely weren’t hosting even if we swept this weekend.
It’ll be close if we win the next two. Gotta keep in mind that due to our history, ballpark and crowd, we often get the benefit of the doubt.
We’ll see, but I doubt we win the next two.
Posted on 5/15/26 at 8:54 am to cubsfan5150
quote:
It’ll be close if we win the next two. Gotta keep in mind that due to our history, ballpark and crowd, we often get the benefit of the doubt.
Not trying to be an a-hole, but we are absolutely not hosting. We simply aren’t, and our fans really need to get past this notion of “well we’re Arkansas so the committee will factor that in.” The RPI math just doesn’t math, and quite literally every projection for weeks has had us as a 2 seed in Tallahassee, Lawrence, or (lately) Eugene.
Our only hope is making a deep run in Hoover, but I don’t see that happening since DVH doesn’t really care about the SEC tourney.
Posted on 5/15/26 at 9:41 am to Feral
quote:
Not trying to be an a-hole, but we are absolutely not hosting. We simply aren’t, and our fans really need to get past this notion of “well we’re Arkansas so the committee will factor that in.” The RPI math just doesn’t math, and quite literally every projection for weeks has had us as a 2 seed in Tallahassee, Lawrence, or (lately) Eugene.
We're 20 in the DSR, putting right on the host bubble, competing against Tennessee, Ole Miss, USC and Southern Miss, which we are ranked ahead of all except for USM and have a better conference record (assuming we win the last two) than the two conference peers. It does look like the pundits are giving Southern Miss the spot due to their superior RPI.
So while I agree with you that it's highly unlikely that we host, I don't think the odds are quite zero, yet.
This post was edited on 5/15/26 at 11:12 am
Posted on 5/15/26 at 8:09 pm to cubsfan5150
We would push UCLAs shite in
Posted on 5/15/26 at 8:28 pm to Porker Face
quote:
We would push UCLAs shite in
Not with the product i saw last night and tonight.
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