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re: We beat 2 top 20 teams in the past 3 weeks and only moved 3 spots in the AP poll
Posted on 11/5/23 at 10:13 pm to East Coast Band
Posted on 11/5/23 at 10:13 pm to East Coast Band
There’s no where to go until some of these teams play each other. It will all work out if we keep winning.
1
Posted on 11/6/23 at 1:13 am to Bamafig
if the pac 12 comes down to oregon and washington without either team losing another game, i think this committee would take the winner.
if the big 12 comes down to ok st and tx with same scenario as above, tx wins they go but maybe not ok st should they win.
the b1g, with no surprises, either michigan or tosu.
fsu controls their own destiny, win they're in.
if it ends up bama vs uga, bama needs uga undefeated. uga win they're in. bama wins they need help with others losing.
plus, dont think for a second that this committee wouldnt consider taking both tosu and michigan should that game be a nail biter.
if the big 12 comes down to ok st and tx with same scenario as above, tx wins they go but maybe not ok st should they win.
the b1g, with no surprises, either michigan or tosu.
fsu controls their own destiny, win they're in.
if it ends up bama vs uga, bama needs uga undefeated. uga win they're in. bama wins they need help with others losing.
plus, dont think for a second that this committee wouldnt consider taking both tosu and michigan should that game be a nail biter.
Posted on 11/6/23 at 5:39 am to Teague
A couple of posters have analyzed the possibilities exactly the way I have. If Texas beats Oklahoma they are in over us. Oregon would get in with a win over Washington (they should have won the first game). Unless upsets happen we are out. It would be to first time in 17 years the SEC is not in the play offs or BCS. Frankly, the SEC has not shown to be dominate out of conference this year. Hopefully this is an anomaly and we will return to form. I do think Alabama is better than Texas now, but the committee will hang their hat on them beating us.
Posted on 11/6/23 at 9:17 am to stewieie
If we have the opportunity in Lexington and Auburn, we are going to have to factor in style points. It doesn't make much sense by any metric to have Oregon ranked over Alabama and Texas right now. All 3 have the same record, and Bama and Texas have better wins.
What Oregon does have is a blowout win over the only ranked opponent they've beaten, and had the luxury of crushing an awful Colorado team while they were still insanely hyped and overrated by the media. That game was built up as some heavyweight fight. That game more than any other got the Oregon hype train started and it's the equivalent of us battering Mississippi state in hindsight.
In reality, Bama has looked better than Texas and Oregon as of late...but they aren't going to jump Alabama over Texas because of the head to head, and they can't bump Texas up because frankly they haven't looked very good lately, escaping against teams like Houston and Kansas State.
If Alabama wins out, they would have what is likely 4 wins over teams ranked in the final playoff poll. It sounds weird but we almost need Ole Miss to win a close game in Athens, which would give us two top 10 wins if we win out and make it nearly impossible for us to be left out.
I said it a month ago on the MSB, but the team that should really be worried is Florida State. They've only played 1 ranked opponent and only have 1 more on the schedule in the ACCCG. They would need to beat the hell out of Louisville to cement their place. I think they would be in, but it would be up for discussion. I just can't envision a world where the committee leaves out an Alabama team with two top 10 wins that hasn't lost since week 2.
The Ohio State/Michigan winner looks firmly entrenched despite OSU looking pedestrian all season and the big 10 as a whole just being a black hole for offensive football. They are the product of starting on third base in the preseason poll. Leaving out an SEC champion Alabama would essentially be shouting to the college football world "don't schedule tough OOC opponents, it can only hurt you in our eyes."
What Oregon does have is a blowout win over the only ranked opponent they've beaten, and had the luxury of crushing an awful Colorado team while they were still insanely hyped and overrated by the media. That game was built up as some heavyweight fight. That game more than any other got the Oregon hype train started and it's the equivalent of us battering Mississippi state in hindsight.
In reality, Bama has looked better than Texas and Oregon as of late...but they aren't going to jump Alabama over Texas because of the head to head, and they can't bump Texas up because frankly they haven't looked very good lately, escaping against teams like Houston and Kansas State.
If Alabama wins out, they would have what is likely 4 wins over teams ranked in the final playoff poll. It sounds weird but we almost need Ole Miss to win a close game in Athens, which would give us two top 10 wins if we win out and make it nearly impossible for us to be left out.
I said it a month ago on the MSB, but the team that should really be worried is Florida State. They've only played 1 ranked opponent and only have 1 more on the schedule in the ACCCG. They would need to beat the hell out of Louisville to cement their place. I think they would be in, but it would be up for discussion. I just can't envision a world where the committee leaves out an Alabama team with two top 10 wins that hasn't lost since week 2.
The Ohio State/Michigan winner looks firmly entrenched despite OSU looking pedestrian all season and the big 10 as a whole just being a black hole for offensive football. They are the product of starting on third base in the preseason poll. Leaving out an SEC champion Alabama would essentially be shouting to the college football world "don't schedule tough OOC opponents, it can only hurt you in our eyes."
This post was edited on 11/6/23 at 9:21 am
Posted on 11/6/23 at 9:26 am to East Coast Band
Just gotta win the rest of our games.
If chalk holds the rest of the regular season and we beat Georgia in Atlanta (obviously a tall task):
- 1 loss to a Top 5 team at home (early)
Wins vs:
- Top 5 Georgia (12-1)
- Top 10 Ole Miss (10-2)
- Top 15 LSU (9-3)
- Top 25 Tennessee (8-4)
Plus wins over a glut of probable 6-7 win bowl teams (A&M, Kentucky, Auburn, USF).
Our "Strength of Record" and SOS will be as good as anybody's in the country. We will be the 1-loss champions of the best or 2nd best conference in the country, having just beaten the 2-time defending national champs with a 30 game win streak or something.
Yea I dunno, would take some staggering circumstances to keep that team out of the playoff. It would be very helpful if Texas would lose 1 more game and kind of be removed from the comparison, though (but only 1).
I mean quite frankly the teams that should be in the most peril in that situation are Michigan and Florida State. Michigan wuold basically have 2 wins the entire season (Penn State and Ohio State). The B1G Championship game opponent is gonna be garbage. That doesn't even take into account all the spy shite. But it won't matter.
If chalk holds the rest of the regular season and we beat Georgia in Atlanta (obviously a tall task):
- 1 loss to a Top 5 team at home (early)
Wins vs:
- Top 5 Georgia (12-1)
- Top 10 Ole Miss (10-2)
- Top 15 LSU (9-3)
- Top 25 Tennessee (8-4)
Plus wins over a glut of probable 6-7 win bowl teams (A&M, Kentucky, Auburn, USF).
Our "Strength of Record" and SOS will be as good as anybody's in the country. We will be the 1-loss champions of the best or 2nd best conference in the country, having just beaten the 2-time defending national champs with a 30 game win streak or something.
Yea I dunno, would take some staggering circumstances to keep that team out of the playoff. It would be very helpful if Texas would lose 1 more game and kind of be removed from the comparison, though (but only 1).
I mean quite frankly the teams that should be in the most peril in that situation are Michigan and Florida State. Michigan wuold basically have 2 wins the entire season (Penn State and Ohio State). The B1G Championship game opponent is gonna be garbage. That doesn't even take into account all the spy shite. But it won't matter.
This post was edited on 11/6/23 at 9:30 am
Posted on 11/6/23 at 9:38 am to East Coast Band
You ain't passing undefeated FBS conference teams, or a 1-loss Texas team....that's just the way it is. 
Posted on 11/6/23 at 11:06 am to coachcrisp
Win the SEC championship and worry about the rest later.
Posted on 11/6/23 at 11:13 am to Chad4Bama
Utah beats Washington this Saturday.. eliminating the Pac
Loser of OSU /Michigan is out!
Texas probably wins out
FSU could lose to Miami or Louisville.. but they probably win out.
Winner of SEC is in!
My prediction:
Michigan
FSU
Texas
Alabama/Georgia
Loser of OSU /Michigan is out!
Texas probably wins out
FSU could lose to Miami or Louisville.. but they probably win out.
Winner of SEC is in!
My prediction:
Michigan
FSU
Texas
Alabama/Georgia
Posted on 11/6/23 at 11:23 am to cmayes56
quote:
Utah beats Washington this Saturday.. eliminating the Pac
Don't think that would eliminate the P12
Posted on 11/6/23 at 11:25 am to coachcrisp
1 loss Alabama SEC champion should EASILY be in over 1 loss Oregon PAC 12 champion.
1 loss Alabama SEC champion should EASILY be in over 1 loss Oklahoma State Big 12 Champion.
So we would surely be hoping for those outcomes (rather than undefeated Washington and 1 loss Texas).
Obviously a lot of football to play (and it only matters if Alabama wins out) but here is the hierarchy I see at the end (the first 9 are all conference champ scenarios and likely the only teams with a realistic path at this point, right now I don't see any way any non-conference champ has a shot this year):
1. Undefeated Georgia
2. Undefeated Ohio State
3. Undefeated Michigan
4. Undefeated Florida State
5. Undefeated Washington
6. 1 loss Texas
7. 1 loss Alabama
8. 1 loss Oregon
9. 1 loss Louisville
Alabama should clearly be at least second (behind Texas unfortunately) of the possible 1 loss conf champions.
If Alabama wins out, by definition #1 above (Georgia) goes away, and one of #2/3 (Ohio St/Mich loser) above goes away.
That moves Alabama up to #5. #5 isn't where you want to be.
Therefore it seems like Alabama needs ONE of Florida State, Washington, or Texas to lose.
ETA: Forgot Okie St has two losses, so removed them.
1 loss Alabama SEC champion should EASILY be in over 1 loss Oklahoma State Big 12 Champion.
So we would surely be hoping for those outcomes (rather than undefeated Washington and 1 loss Texas).
Obviously a lot of football to play (and it only matters if Alabama wins out) but here is the hierarchy I see at the end (the first 9 are all conference champ scenarios and likely the only teams with a realistic path at this point, right now I don't see any way any non-conference champ has a shot this year):
1. Undefeated Georgia
2. Undefeated Ohio State
3. Undefeated Michigan
4. Undefeated Florida State
5. Undefeated Washington
6. 1 loss Texas
7. 1 loss Alabama
8. 1 loss Oregon
9. 1 loss Louisville
Alabama should clearly be at least second (behind Texas unfortunately) of the possible 1 loss conf champions.
If Alabama wins out, by definition #1 above (Georgia) goes away, and one of #2/3 (Ohio St/Mich loser) above goes away.
That moves Alabama up to #5. #5 isn't where you want to be.
Therefore it seems like Alabama needs ONE of Florida State, Washington, or Texas to lose.
ETA: Forgot Okie St has two losses, so removed them.
This post was edited on 11/6/23 at 2:17 pm
Posted on 11/6/23 at 11:27 am to SummerOfGeorge
I think it does at the end of the day.
But you might be correct. I just don’t see a 1 loss SEC champion not getting in..
And if history is an indicator, chaos is coming. It almost always does
But you might be correct. I just don’t see a 1 loss SEC champion not getting in..
And if history is an indicator, chaos is coming. It almost always does
Posted on 11/6/23 at 11:28 am to coachcrisp
If we beat undefeated number 1 or 2 ranked Ga we will get in over Tjas.
Posted on 11/6/23 at 11:32 am to SummerOfGeorge
I also don’t think it matters if Ole Miss or Tenn beats Georgia.. just not both!
That just would mean we beat the team that beat UGA and we beat UGA .
It would still be a 1 loss SEC champ.. which gets in
That just would mean we beat the team that beat UGA and we beat UGA .
It would still be a 1 loss SEC champ.. which gets in
Posted on 11/6/23 at 11:56 am to cmayes56
Oklahoma State has 2 losses. We would like them to win out.
Posted on 11/6/23 at 1:29 pm to JIB
Mich
Wash
FSU
Tejas
I don't like it, but another Sugar Bowl is in BAMA's future more than likely. Could be worse. Could be a 1-loss UGA and not even be SEC Champs and have to go to the peach bowl.
What a nightmarish tragedy that playoff scenario is for the committee.
Tejas could win out. Wash could lose twice. Michigan could lose to PennSt then beat OhioSt. FSU could win out. Then BAMA beat undefeated UGA by 1 on a last second FG and the playoff could be:
FSU
Tejas
BAMA
Uga
That would be a wet dream scenario for the committee. 4 HYUGE fanbases. One rematch with a possibility of an SECCG rematch.
Wash
FSU
Tejas
I don't like it, but another Sugar Bowl is in BAMA's future more than likely. Could be worse. Could be a 1-loss UGA and not even be SEC Champs and have to go to the peach bowl.
What a nightmarish tragedy that playoff scenario is for the committee.
Tejas could win out. Wash could lose twice. Michigan could lose to PennSt then beat OhioSt. FSU could win out. Then BAMA beat undefeated UGA by 1 on a last second FG and the playoff could be:
FSU
Tejas
BAMA
Uga
That would be a wet dream scenario for the committee. 4 HYUGE fanbases. One rematch with a possibility of an SECCG rematch.
This post was edited on 11/6/23 at 1:38 pm
Posted on 11/6/23 at 2:35 pm to Gideon Swashbuckler
quote:
I don't like it, but another Sugar Bowl is in BAMA's future more than likely.
That'd be awesome because we'd be in the playoffs
Posted on 11/6/23 at 2:40 pm to Riseupfromtherubble
quote:
don't schedule tough OOC opponents, it can only hurt you in our eyes."
It's always been this way. Look at Georgia and Oklahoma.
They got out of their scheduled game between each other, and neither were "punished"
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