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The Insane Decline of Offensive Talent Under Saban.
Posted on 12/30/24 at 7:49 pm
Posted on 12/30/24 at 7:49 pm
When you look at the last few years under Saban, our offensive talent took a sudden nosedive.
It almost defies reason.
We went from having 1st rounders at WR every season, and 1st/2nd rounders at RB, to complete mediocrity in a flash.
Our best 2 skill guys of the past 4 seasons on offense were 1 and done guys from the portal (Jameson Williams and Jahmyr Gibbs). Even Jermaine Burton our WR1 from last year was a portal guy.
We ended up in a situation in 2021 where we were relying on Agiye Hall to win us a natty because we had NOBODY else at WR.
We've even had to hit the portal for TEs.
We thought Kalen DeBoer was walking into a cabinet of riches in terms of talent, but his Washington teams of the past 2 years were head &shoulders above this team in offensive talent.
Our WR corps this year was a joke. We had a 17 year-old who developed a bad case of butter fingers after a promising start, and Germie Bernard - Washington's WR3 from a year ago. That's all we had. Literally nobody else.
Our RBs were totally mediocre this year as well.
DeBoer is having to completely revamp our offensive roster - including at QB. Saban allowed it to atrophy badly over the past 3 years.
It almost defies reason.
We went from having 1st rounders at WR every season, and 1st/2nd rounders at RB, to complete mediocrity in a flash.
Our best 2 skill guys of the past 4 seasons on offense were 1 and done guys from the portal (Jameson Williams and Jahmyr Gibbs). Even Jermaine Burton our WR1 from last year was a portal guy.
We ended up in a situation in 2021 where we were relying on Agiye Hall to win us a natty because we had NOBODY else at WR.
We've even had to hit the portal for TEs.
We thought Kalen DeBoer was walking into a cabinet of riches in terms of talent, but his Washington teams of the past 2 years were head &shoulders above this team in offensive talent.
Our WR corps this year was a joke. We had a 17 year-old who developed a bad case of butter fingers after a promising start, and Germie Bernard - Washington's WR3 from a year ago. That's all we had. Literally nobody else.
Our RBs were totally mediocre this year as well.
DeBoer is having to completely revamp our offensive roster - including at QB. Saban allowed it to atrophy badly over the past 3 years.
5
Posted on 12/30/24 at 7:54 pm to BasedCrimson
Look at OL. Look at DL. Look at DB. Look at RB
That is where our recruiting was elite. For over a decade straight.
Right up the middle of the field.
That is where our recruiting was elite. For over a decade straight.
Right up the middle of the field.
Posted on 12/30/24 at 8:14 pm to Rip N Lip
Towards the end of the Saban era, our player evaluation process seemed to decline a good deal. We just flat out missed on a lot of well regarded prospects. Additionally, player development lost some of its luster as we saw several players leave and do positive things after Tuscaloosa (which use to never be the case besides Alvin Kamara).
Hoping that the new staff has a better eye for high school talent.
Hoping that the new staff has a better eye for high school talent.
Posted on 12/30/24 at 8:37 pm to Diego Ricardo
quote:
Towards the end of the Saban era, our player evaluation process seemed to decline a good deal.
I do believe the coaching staff turnover eventually caught up here.
So did in person evaluations and camps due to Covid.
The transfer portal changes are perhaps the biggest factor though. How do you evaluate players who bounce at the first sign of adversity?
Alabama Football is adversity to the core. From the beginning.
Posted on 12/30/24 at 8:40 pm to BasedCrimson
Lay off the Crown Royal.
Posted on 12/30/24 at 8:40 pm to Panthers4life
Exactly. It’s amazing how these troll burner accounts keep popping up here. It’s probably a multitude of alter accounts.
Posted on 12/30/24 at 9:20 pm to bamatide07
The same barner troll and he’s drunk on Boone’s Farm Strawberry Hill.
Posted on 12/30/24 at 9:25 pm to BasedCrimson
Crazier times are ahead.
Posted on 12/30/24 at 9:27 pm to bamatide07
quote:
Exactly. It’s amazing how these troll burner accounts keep popping up here. It’s probably a multitude of alter accounts.
He's CrimsonBuddha's alter.
Posted on 12/30/24 at 9:46 pm to Rip N Lip
quote:
I do believe the coaching staff turnover eventually caught up here.
So did in person evaluations and camps due to Covid.
The transfer portal changes are perhaps the biggest factor though. How do you evaluate players who bounce at the first sign of adversity?
Alabama Football is adversity to the core. From the beginning.
This is all correct.
Posted on 12/30/24 at 10:03 pm to BasedCrimson
I think it was a development issue. Can't remember without looking it up, but we signed 3 of the top 10 WRs in maybe '21 or '22...and none became elite. Stark contrast to Smith, Waddle, Jeudy, etc.
We had too many position coaches not earning their paychecks on the actual coaching part in the last 3 years under Saban.
We had too many position coaches not earning their paychecks on the actual coaching part in the last 3 years under Saban.
Posted on 12/30/24 at 10:09 pm to Chad4Bama
When people take your coaches every year, its hard to replace that.
Posted on 12/30/24 at 10:41 pm to Chad4Bama
quote:
I think it was a development issue.
Disagree.
They were bad evals.
If it was bad development the portal guys would’ve left and blown up elsewhere but they didn’t.
I mean who left and did anything? Aaron Anderson?
I think our best offensive coaches and analysts who were doing evals left and whoever came in behind them were a disaster, BOB in particular.
Posted on 12/30/24 at 11:17 pm to tide06
None of it was bad evals, it was mismanagement and just poor luck
Holden, Brooks, and Bond are all getting drafted this year
Sanders, Mcclellan, Roydell all had career impacting injuries. Mcclellan was drafted and averaged close to 6 YPC under Bryce.
Niblack and Agiye Hall ended up being basket cases in the NIL era. Neither did anything
And even then we have no clue what our receivers or backs can do ceiling wise because of Milroe limiting the offense and the erratic play under BoB.
Holden, Brooks, and Bond are all getting drafted this year
Sanders, Mcclellan, Roydell all had career impacting injuries. Mcclellan was drafted and averaged close to 6 YPC under Bryce.
Niblack and Agiye Hall ended up being basket cases in the NIL era. Neither did anything
And even then we have no clue what our receivers or backs can do ceiling wise because of Milroe limiting the offense and the erratic play under BoB.
This post was edited on 12/30/24 at 11:20 pm
Posted on 12/30/24 at 11:55 pm to UhOhOreo
You only listed 1 plus level starter on a list with 8 top 100 recruits while leaving off a laundry list of other skill guys from that period who were also top 100 recruits that never panned out.
Again, if they weren’t missed why didn’t they make an impact elsewhere?
We went from having 4 NFL WRs and 4 NFL RBs at the same time to scratching to stay alive on portal guys.
Don’t understand why you’re being obstinate on this?
Again, if they weren’t missed why didn’t they make an impact elsewhere?
We went from having 4 NFL WRs and 4 NFL RBs at the same time to scratching to stay alive on portal guys.
Don’t understand why you’re being obstinate on this?
Posted on 12/31/24 at 1:05 am to tide06
quote:
We went from having 4 NFL WRs and 4 NFL RBs at the same time to scratching to stay alive on portal guys.
Citing a generational offense isn't a great argument. And again, two of the last three RB's had injury issues (car crash, ACL) and the third overcame it.
For shits and giggles with WR's and RB's. Lets start at 2018 and go around that stacked 2017 class
2018:
#9 WR Jaylen Waddle - First rounder
#8 APB Jerome Ford - Transferred to Cincinatti, drafted in the 5th after a 1000 yard season
#17 APB Slade Bolden - Moved to WR, UDFA
2019:
#2 RB Trey sanders - Car crash
#15 TE Jahleel Billingsley - Transferred to Texas
#42 WR John Metchie - Drafted in the third after an ACL tear
2020:
#1 QB Bryce - 1st overall
#7 RB Mcclellan - ACL tear, fifth rounder
#10 RB Roydell - ACL tear, transferred to FSU after a productive 4th year
#17 WR Theiu Jones Bell - Graduated, depth
#33 WR Traeshon Holden - Oregon WR2, second day mock drafts
#57 WR Javon Baker - Transfer to UCF, Drafted in the fourth 2023
#29 TE Caden Clark - Depth
#34 Kyle Edwards - Depth
2021
#2 WR Jacorey Brooks - 800 yards as WR1 in 2022, doghouse 2023, 1K yards with Louisville in 2024. 2nd day mocks
#7 WR Agiye Hall - Headcase
#5 RB Camar Wheaton - Transferred to SMU immediately
#12 WR Jojo Earle - Transferred to TCU after being buried on the depth chart
#16 WR Christian Leary - Transferred to GT after being buried on the depth chart
#35 TE Robbie Outz - Multi year starter, blocking TE
Transferred in Jameson Williams for a single year, automatic starter, first rounder
2022
#4 QB Ty Simpson - Behind Milroe, probable starter
#2 WR Isaiah Bond - Mock drafts for second day, transferred to Texas
#5 WR Aaron Anderson - Transferred to LSU after a year, 800 yards for LSU second or third day draft pick
#2 ATH Emmanuel Henderson - Transferred this year to Kansas, didnt see the field much
#4 RB Jam Miller - 5.0 YPC, underutilized with Milroe
#3 ATH Kendrick Law - Transferred to UK, gadget player that can block but never developed as a receiver
#15 WR Kobe Prentice - Didn't crack rotation
#4 TE Niblack - Transferred to Texas after promising year
#20 WR Shazz Preston - Transferred to Tulane
Transferred in former 5* Burton who was WR2 with UGA for a year, fifth rounder
quote:
You only listed 1 plus level starter on a list with 8 top 100 recruits while leaving off a laundry list of other skill guys from that period who were also top 100 recruits that never panned out.
I'm not sure what you're smoking, but that's more than 1 plus level starter.
quote:
Again, if they weren’t missed why didn’t they make an impact elsewhere?
Half of that list has panned out and been drafted from elsewhere or will be.
Go do me a favor and lookup the offensive talent output from 2011-2016. Or you know what i'll do it for you.
2012
#2 APB TJ Yeldon - 2nd Round
#4 WR Chris Black - Bust
#6 WR Amari Cooper - 1st round
#25 QB Alec Morris - Bust
#24 TE Kurt Freitag - Multi year TE starter, blocker
2013
#1 ATH Derrick henry - 2nd round, Heisman
#1 WR Robert Foster - Bust until his final year, put up 500 yards and UDFA
#1 TE OJ Howard - 1st round TE
#5 RB Altee Tenpenny - Doghouse, died mid career but never played meaningful snaps
#6 RB Tyren Jones - Character bust like Hall
#3 APB Alvin Kamara - Transferred to Tenn, fifth rounder
#5 QB Cooper Bateman - Bus
#41 WR Raheem Falkins - Depth
#60 QB Parker Mcleod - Depth, transferred
2014
#3 QB - David Cornwell - Bust
#10 WR Cam Sims - Bust, UDFA
#24 WR Derek Kief - Never played meaningful snaps, went into coaching
#2 JUCO TE Ty Flournoy Smith - Busted
2015
#2 WR Calvin Ridley - 1st rounder
#2 QB Blake Barnett - Busted
#3 RB Damien Harris - Drafted in the fifth, multi year starter
#13 WR Daylon Charlot - Bust
#16 RB Desherrius Flowers - Bust
2016
#2 RB BJ Emmons - Bust
#1 QB Jalen Hurts - Mutli year starter, Transferred to OU, second rounder. Never really developed well here
#6 APB Josh Jacobs - Late riser, like in the month of January. First rounder
So what exactly am I missing here? We have more drafted players from 2018-2022 than we did from 2012-2016. Our primary issue is the portal meant more guys dipped out due to the depth chart or just transferring closer to home (Anderson). We've had RB's with injury issues and we've churned out more WR talent here or elsewhere than what we had prior to 2017.
quote:
Don’t understand why you’re being obstinate on this?
I just listed out the starters from that time period and the response is "nuh uh, they didn't have the insane hit rate as the best offense in college football history that was all largely the 2017 class"
The irony of saying i'm obstinate when presented with evidence that refutes your viewpoint. Our hit rate isn't different than before that wild 2017 class, if anything 2017 is just a massive outlier.
Most of these guys transferred out due to depth issues and were drafted. Some busted due to injury. But nothing here really screams "talent issue", especially when the 2023 and 2024 offenses have been gimped heavily by a limited passing capability and our carries largely going to our QB. We still don't really know what Jam can do for example because he's never been an actual feature back.
This post was edited on 12/31/24 at 1:17 am
Posted on 12/31/24 at 5:52 am to UhOhOreo
quote:
And even then we have no clue what our receivers or backs can do ceiling wise because of Milroe limiting the offense
Posted on 12/31/24 at 10:22 am to UhOhOreo
So first off you deserve a ton of credit for going back and pulling data instead of calling names and running. Regardless of whether we agree that’s a solid post.
As for the actual post, Alabama has signed by rating the top WR talent in the country since 2019 with only Ohio State in the discussion as #1. Despite that our last WR to be signed by Bama and drafted out of Bama was John Metchie.
RB is much the same. Despite signing a laundry list of top 50 guys our last impact back was Brian Robinson.
I’m leaving QB out for now because I don’t think we know what we have behind Milroe and don’t want to argue an open ended position. I would however argue that the WR results from that period are far worse than even the results on paper however because many of those guys had an NFL 1.1 guy throwing to them. If you can’t get open with BY behind center you just can’t get open.
2019: RB: 0/2 WR 1/1
2020: RB 0/3 WR: 0/3
-I’m sorry I watched Baker and Holden for years, they were just guys. If they were impact guys they don’t get benched for portal guys and recruited over.
2021: RB 0/1 WR: 0/4
Brooks rarely created separation, I’m not counting him as a plus guy. This is the class that killed the Saban era IMO. On paper this was a class that should’ve made us elite again and we whiffed across the board.
2022: RB: TBD on Jam, WR: 2/5
I’m counting Bond and Anderson although I’m not sure either are as good as they think they are, but Bond on tape in particular should have much better stats than he ever actually had. I also get signing Law who has some ultra elite skills being held hostage by poor hands.
2023: many have already transferred but Haynes had horrible vision and lacked burst post injury, I thought he was on a superstar track after the Rose Bowl but he never showed anything close to that again. Benson was garbage and so we will wait to see on Adams, Hamilton and Hale, but two of them are coming off major injuries and we’re switching Mbakwe to WR as a result.
That’s 0/6 at RB and 3/13 at WR despite having the top recruiting classes at those positions in the country. Where bad evals end and bad development begins is subjective, but the fact that no one exploded once they left to play easier competition indicates it’s much more likely a skill/mental fit problem than a coaching issue.
Saban knew we had issues or he wouldn’t have hit the portal so hard.
DeBoer knows it and that’s why he’s cleaning house currently.
Happy New Years to all, let’s beat Michigan and here’s to restocking the roster moving forward.
As for the actual post, Alabama has signed by rating the top WR talent in the country since 2019 with only Ohio State in the discussion as #1. Despite that our last WR to be signed by Bama and drafted out of Bama was John Metchie.
RB is much the same. Despite signing a laundry list of top 50 guys our last impact back was Brian Robinson.
I’m leaving QB out for now because I don’t think we know what we have behind Milroe and don’t want to argue an open ended position. I would however argue that the WR results from that period are far worse than even the results on paper however because many of those guys had an NFL 1.1 guy throwing to them. If you can’t get open with BY behind center you just can’t get open.
2019: RB: 0/2 WR 1/1
2020: RB 0/3 WR: 0/3
-I’m sorry I watched Baker and Holden for years, they were just guys. If they were impact guys they don’t get benched for portal guys and recruited over.
2021: RB 0/1 WR: 0/4
Brooks rarely created separation, I’m not counting him as a plus guy. This is the class that killed the Saban era IMO. On paper this was a class that should’ve made us elite again and we whiffed across the board.
2022: RB: TBD on Jam, WR: 2/5
I’m counting Bond and Anderson although I’m not sure either are as good as they think they are, but Bond on tape in particular should have much better stats than he ever actually had. I also get signing Law who has some ultra elite skills being held hostage by poor hands.
2023: many have already transferred but Haynes had horrible vision and lacked burst post injury, I thought he was on a superstar track after the Rose Bowl but he never showed anything close to that again. Benson was garbage and so we will wait to see on Adams, Hamilton and Hale, but two of them are coming off major injuries and we’re switching Mbakwe to WR as a result.
That’s 0/6 at RB and 3/13 at WR despite having the top recruiting classes at those positions in the country. Where bad evals end and bad development begins is subjective, but the fact that no one exploded once they left to play easier competition indicates it’s much more likely a skill/mental fit problem than a coaching issue.
Saban knew we had issues or he wouldn’t have hit the portal so hard.
DeBoer knows it and that’s why he’s cleaning house currently.
Happy New Years to all, let’s beat Michigan and here’s to restocking the roster moving forward.
Posted on 12/31/24 at 10:22 am to Bamafan24
quote:It's like any business operation. You lose 30% of your laborers yearly (portal) and 40-50% of your management staff yearly and overall production declines drastically.
When people take your coaches every year, its hard to replace that.
Here's to hoping CKD finds consistency and retention on his staff and roster.
Posted on 12/31/24 at 10:50 am to tide06
quote:
DeBoer knows it and that’s why he’s cleaning house currently.
I think that is partly why the off-field staff got axed and I imagine the hold it together staff retentions are not going to be around for much longer if their respective positions (RB and DL) don’t start producing.
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