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The dynasty rolls on - my thoughts
Posted on 12/8/19 at 9:43 am
Posted on 12/8/19 at 9:43 am
I listened to a lot of deranged Bama fans call in to radio shows this past week talking about how the program is going down hill. Wanted to call in and respond but didnt have time for that, but want to put my thoughts here now.
I think the main overarching point in the Saban dynasty (and any sports dynasty really) is to be in the title picture year in/year out and hopefully win one every few years at least. Minus the Clemson game last year, Bama never gets blown out in losses. It usually takes a fantastic team/performance (LSU this year) or some voodoo (Auburn any time) to make us lose a game.
We lost two this year, but every single year under Saban we could have easily lost two games, even the championship years.
2009: Needed Mt Cody to block two kicks to secure a win vs Tennessee. Needed a last minute drive to come back and beat Auburn. Could have easily lost both.
2011: We did lose to LSU in the GotC. Dont think we were close to losing another one, BUT we still needed some fortune via Iowa State Cyclones.
2012: Lost to A&M/Jonny Football. Had a crazy fortunate situation vs Georgia in the SECC where they caught a pass which ran the clock out. If they get another play who knows.
2015: Lost to Ole Miss. Pretty dominant otherwise, but still needed an amazing performance and some special teams magic (Kenyan Drake TD return and onside kick) to beat Clemson in the championship game.
2017: Lost to Auburn. And we all remember the circumstances it took to come back and beat Georgia (Tua 2nd half, 2nd and 26).
So even our best years we have been THAT close to losing a couple of games. And I don’t mean that as a slight at the dynasty but to reinforce that winning it all takes a great amount of fortune (injuries, crazy arse plays) to put you over the margin into championship territory.
So this year, we were again competitive, right up to that championship margin line, but just fell a little short. For visualization just imagine the Champion Margin line is the goal line on a football field. I still think we were in the red zone this year, probably even close to the 5 yard line. It’s not like we are are stuck at midfield.
And I see no reason Saban won’t have us back and with an opportunity to win it all next year.
TLDR: This year had some misfortune with injuries and a young defense, but was not as bad as many are making it out to be. Even our best years we could have easily lost a couple of games with similar misfortune.
I think the main overarching point in the Saban dynasty (and any sports dynasty really) is to be in the title picture year in/year out and hopefully win one every few years at least. Minus the Clemson game last year, Bama never gets blown out in losses. It usually takes a fantastic team/performance (LSU this year) or some voodoo (Auburn any time) to make us lose a game.
We lost two this year, but every single year under Saban we could have easily lost two games, even the championship years.
2009: Needed Mt Cody to block two kicks to secure a win vs Tennessee. Needed a last minute drive to come back and beat Auburn. Could have easily lost both.
2011: We did lose to LSU in the GotC. Dont think we were close to losing another one, BUT we still needed some fortune via Iowa State Cyclones.
2012: Lost to A&M/Jonny Football. Had a crazy fortunate situation vs Georgia in the SECC where they caught a pass which ran the clock out. If they get another play who knows.
2015: Lost to Ole Miss. Pretty dominant otherwise, but still needed an amazing performance and some special teams magic (Kenyan Drake TD return and onside kick) to beat Clemson in the championship game.
2017: Lost to Auburn. And we all remember the circumstances it took to come back and beat Georgia (Tua 2nd half, 2nd and 26).
So even our best years we have been THAT close to losing a couple of games. And I don’t mean that as a slight at the dynasty but to reinforce that winning it all takes a great amount of fortune (injuries, crazy arse plays) to put you over the margin into championship territory.
So this year, we were again competitive, right up to that championship margin line, but just fell a little short. For visualization just imagine the Champion Margin line is the goal line on a football field. I still think we were in the red zone this year, probably even close to the 5 yard line. It’s not like we are are stuck at midfield.
And I see no reason Saban won’t have us back and with an opportunity to win it all next year.
TLDR: This year had some misfortune with injuries and a young defense, but was not as bad as many are making it out to be. Even our best years we could have easily lost a couple of games with similar misfortune.
10
Posted on 12/8/19 at 9:46 am to bodask42
quote:
2015: Lost to Ole Miss.
We also were down late against Tennessee and needed a last-minute drive, including two very clutch third down conversions, to seal the deal.
Posted on 12/8/19 at 9:50 am to RollTide1987
quote:
We also were down late against Tennessee and needed a last-minute drive, including two very clutch third down conversions, to seal the deal.
Didn’t remember that one! Now I feel humbled that there are better Bama historians than myself
Posted on 12/8/19 at 1:05 pm to bodask42
Some people just want to be upset is what I've seen from this.
Posted on 12/8/19 at 1:13 pm to bodask42
LSU in 2012, 2014 and 2016 in Baton Rouge were absolute dog fights that could've easily gone the other way. The SEC is brutal and the margin for error is small. Alabama and Saban are definitely great but other programs are highly competitive as well. If anything, the addition of Saban to Alabama has upped the ante in college football like never before.
Posted on 12/8/19 at 2:15 pm to bodask42
quote:
2015: Lost to Ole Miss. Pretty dominant otherwise, but still needed an amazing performance and some special teams magic (Kenyan Drake TD return and onside kick) to beat Clemson in the championship game.
Also, we needed the wackiness of Arkansas beating Ole Miss that year to even get in the SECCG. Arky converted a 4th and 25 in OT on a crazy blind 20-yard backward lateral to extend possession, leading to an unlikely TD...and then going for two, missing, getting a redo via penalty, and converting to win the game...
This post was edited on 12/8/19 at 2:16 pm
Posted on 12/8/19 at 2:32 pm to bodask42
2014 - we lost 2 and didn’t win it all, but we also barely escaped against Arkansas (14-13) with a late interception by Landon to seal it.
Posted on 12/8/19 at 4:05 pm to bodask42
Posted on 12/8/19 at 5:14 pm to TiderNAL
I urge you to read it the OP and everyone above you all made excellent points.
Posted on 12/8/19 at 5:45 pm to OldPete
quote:
Also, we needed the wackiness of Arkansas beating Ole Miss that year to even get in the SECCG. Arky converted a 4th and 25 in OT on a crazy blind 20-yard backward lateral to extend possession, leading to an unlikely TD...and then going for two, missing, getting a redo via penalty, and converting to win the game..
Oh yeah, that’s another one for sure! One of the plays ever got us back to controlling our own destiny.
Posted on 12/8/19 at 5:49 pm to bodask42
You always expect to get the train back on the tracks with Nick Saban. With that said Bama needs two really good ILBers for 2020 and JMO we don't have them on the current roster.
Posted on 12/8/19 at 6:15 pm to bodask42
People also forget that 2012 defense looked pretty helpless against LSU and Metsiah. Saban runs a process designed for high percentages of success. It isn’t fool proof. Also, sometimes we have several inexplicable turn overs and a ball bounce off a helmet for a touchdown.
Saban will get his finger on the pulse of college football again.
Saban will get his finger on the pulse of college football again.
Posted on 12/8/19 at 6:20 pm to LovetheLord
quote:
People also forget that 2012 defense looked pretty helpless against LSU and Metsiah.
LSU put up some yards but they also averaged 5.1 ypp and scored 17 points. So I wouldn’t say our D look pretty helpless.
Posted on 12/8/19 at 6:27 pm to bodask42
quote:
TLDR: This year had some misfortune with injuries and a young defense, but was not as bad as many are making it out to be. Even our best years we could have easily lost a couple of games with similar misfortune.
Hot take
Posted on 12/8/19 at 6:30 pm to 3down10
quote:
Some people just want to be upset is what I've seen from this.
This is why the first version of the Matrix failed. Entire crops were lost.
Posted on 12/8/19 at 6:36 pm to bodask42
OP 
Responses
Two things I’d add...
Bama lost along the way to some teams that were Sr laden or had their once in a generation player with good surrounding talent. The Tide plays so many guys who are 3 and done, sometimes that levels the playing field vs a bunch of 4-5 year 4 stars. Until Clemson last year, it hadn’t felt like a butt kicking since tOSU in 2014. And we had our chance back then.
The consistency of Saban teams has been remarkable in the run . It’s been lonely at the top with just tOSU being a consistent visitor. Clemson has crashed the party lately and it will be interesting to follow Dabo’s run to see if he can match CNS.
More good times ahead i bet.
Responses
Two things I’d add...
Bama lost along the way to some teams that were Sr laden or had their once in a generation player with good surrounding talent. The Tide plays so many guys who are 3 and done, sometimes that levels the playing field vs a bunch of 4-5 year 4 stars. Until Clemson last year, it hadn’t felt like a butt kicking since tOSU in 2014. And we had our chance back then.
The consistency of Saban teams has been remarkable in the run . It’s been lonely at the top with just tOSU being a consistent visitor. Clemson has crashed the party lately and it will be interesting to follow Dabo’s run to see if he can match CNS.
More good times ahead i bet.
Posted on 12/8/19 at 6:50 pm to bodask42
quote:
TLDR: This year had some misfortune with injuries and a young defense, but was not as bad as many are making it out to be. Even our best years we could have easily lost a couple of games with similar misfortune.
Alabama lost to the two best teams on its schedule this year. Hence the freefall in rankings after the Auburn loss. The schedule was abysmal this season, full of mediocre to terrible teams outside of LSU and Auburn.
If Alabama plays Auburn's schedule this year, Alabama has four to five losses. That's not misfortune. That's just a big step back in terms of team quality.
This post was edited on 12/8/19 at 6:51 pm
Posted on 12/8/19 at 6:59 pm to LockDown
quote:
If Alabama plays Auburn's schedule this year, Alabama has four to five losses. That's not misfortune. That's just a big step back in terms of team quality.
No way. Control factor in all other games was 99.9%. Youth and inexperience found a way to cluster up two biggest tests of the year. But good luck to your Tigers in their bowl game.
Posted on 12/8/19 at 7:02 pm to LockDown
Get the frick off our board.
Posted on 12/8/19 at 9:26 pm to bodask42
Great take OP. I think most of the doom and gloom fans are recent fans. Those of us that lived through the dark ages are a little more realistic about the current state and future of the program. To put this in perspective; a comment on the Bama board barn game day thread said they would name their kid Najee If Bama pulled it out. Well, I almost had to name my first born Freddie Millons, Jr. Let that sink in.
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