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re: SOG Prediction Model (1st real week) - #1 Alabama (-17.5) @ Texas A&M

Posted on 10/5/21 at 8:20 am to
Posted by TideSaint
Hill Country
Member since Sep 2008
75854 posts
Posted on 10/5/21 at 8:20 am to
It's way too hard to predict how Georgia would perform against our offense.

They have played some abysmal offensive teams so far.
Posted by Crimsonite94
Member since Jul 2021
3564 posts
Posted on 10/5/21 at 10:37 am to
I’m excited for this one because of how bad A&M is offensively. This game gives us a chance to build more confidence defensively. Sack city coming up.
Posted by tattoo
Fantasy Island
Member since Oct 2017
1805 posts
Posted on 10/6/21 at 11:48 pm to
quote:

And LSU fans try to act like Woodward is some wizard of an AD.

Part of the reason is that that is Finebaum's take. PF is often fairly perceptive when it comes to that type of evaluation but I'm with you on Woodward. IMO, Fisher is one of the most overrated coaches in college football.

I was shocked that many, including Bama fans, really thought that A&M would be a threat to Alabama this year. They are even worse than I thought they would be and most of it has little to do with King going down. They have a nice DL and good RBs and Smith but are replacing their QB and 4 OL and have no WRs to match a bad secondary.
Posted by phaz
Waddell, AZ
Member since Jan 2009
5828 posts
Posted on 10/7/21 at 12:54 am to
quote:

It's way too hard to predict how Georgia would perform against our offense.

They have played some abysmal offensive teams so far.




I thought i was the only one that thought this way, Bo Nix will be the best QB they have faced.

Bo Nix!
Posted by tide06
Member since Oct 2011
11165 posts
Posted on 10/9/21 at 7:58 am to
quote:

I was shocked that many, including Bama fans, really thought that A&M would be a threat to Alabama this year. They are even worse than I thought they would be and most of it has little to do with King going down.

No one knew how bad that OL was and even if King was only average they were top 5 last year with Kellen Mond at QB.

Not hard to see how many had them down as capable of big things this year.

But the only plus units at this point for them are DL and TE (which has been useless since they can’t get them the ball).
Posted by Old Sarge
Dean of Admissions, LSU
Member since Jan 2012
55254 posts
Posted on 10/9/21 at 8:22 am to
This will be 64-3 if Aggie is lucky

Our defense could properly keep you below 30 if our offense had a pulse but they will be worn out constantly being put back on the field after quick 3 and outs by our deer in the headlights qb


Gonna be a terrible game for us
Posted by tide06
Member since Oct 2011
11165 posts
Posted on 10/9/21 at 8:35 am to
quote:

Our defense could properly keep you below 30 if our offense had a pulse but they will be worn out constantly being put back on the field after quick 3 and outs by our deer in the headlights qb

I think the demoralization factor is as important as the TOP issue.

When the defense knows the offense can’t score and now you throw in some major injuries in the secondary things have the potential to unravel if the momentum goes towards Bama early.
Posted by Old Sarge
Dean of Admissions, LSU
Member since Jan 2012
55254 posts
Posted on 10/9/21 at 8:38 am to
quote:

momentum goes towards Bama early.


Like in the first 60 seconds

You’re absolutely right, our poor defense has had their spirit broken knowing no matter what they do or how well they play, we cannot score points on even fcs level competition
Posted by tide06
Member since Oct 2011
11165 posts
Posted on 10/9/21 at 8:41 am to
quote:

You’re absolutely right, our poor defense has had their spirit broken knowing no matter what they do or how well they play, we cannot score points on even fcs level competition

Were there injuries on the OL or what happened there?

I really thought Spiller and crew were primed to have a huge year. I get that defenses are crowding the LOS because they don’t respect Calzada, but the failure to establish the LOS has been shocking to me.
This post was edited on 10/9/21 at 8:45 am
Posted by Old Sarge
Dean of Admissions, LSU
Member since Jan 2012
55254 posts
Posted on 10/9/21 at 8:53 am to
Yes, lost 3 or 4 OL to leaving and injury in total I believe, should have better depth moving forward next year, but no one saw the qb struggles coming, I’ve never seen anything like it and I’ve seen a lot in my days
Posted by CapstoneGrad06
Little Rock
Member since Nov 2008
72177 posts
Posted on 10/9/21 at 9:00 am to
Quit sandbagging.
Posted by Old Sarge
Dean of Admissions, LSU
Member since Jan 2012
55254 posts
Posted on 10/9/21 at 9:09 am to


Posted by SummerOfGeorge
Member since Jul 2013
102699 posts
Posted on 10/13/21 at 5:45 pm to
FYI

Alabama Offense - Expectations (Results)
Points : 33 (38) (+5)
Yards : 436 (522) (+86)
Overall YPP : 6.41 (6.37) (+0.04)
Pass YPP : 9.66 (7.69) (-1.98)
Rush YPP : 3.69 (4.50) (+0.81)

Alabama Defense - Expectations (Results)
Points : 12 (41) (+29)
Yards : 267 (379) (+112)
Overall YPP : 4.24 (6.53) (+2.29)
Pass YPP : 4.35 (9.19) (+4.85)
Rush YPP : 4.16 (3.48) (-0.68)
Posted by TideSaint
Hill Country
Member since Sep 2008
75854 posts
Posted on 10/13/21 at 5:52 pm to
quote:

Pass YPP : 4.35 (9.19) (+4.85)


fricking oof.

And I was almost over the game. Thanks, George.
Posted by East Coast Band
Member since Nov 2010
62754 posts
Posted on 10/13/21 at 9:03 pm to
I don't expect much else from aTm the rest of the way.
It'll be up and down, but I'll give them at least 2 more losses.
Posted by 1BamaRTR
In Your Head Blvd
Member since Apr 2015
22521 posts
Posted on 10/13/21 at 9:41 pm to
quote:

It'll be up and down, but I'll give them at least 2 more losses.

I thought so too but their schedule isn’t too hard.

But I don’t expect their QB to play anywhere near that good again
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