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Optimistic that we can duplicate much of the results from Game 1
Posted on 1/7/22 at 11:12 am
Posted on 1/7/22 at 11:12 am
I am typically concerned before big games and love to hype up our opponent. Its helped me temper expectations and appreciate the amazing run we've had. My pessimistic theory is below. Then I get to do the fun part and deep dive into our reasons to feel confident.
WORRY: Bama made a ton of super timely plays in the 2nd and 3rd quarters that made feel like more of a beating than it actually was
Following the dropped pick-six, Bama went down 10-0 and was routinely put in a position to make plays. Which it did remarkably well.
-3rd and 2 Jameson Williams touchdown while down 10-0. Completely flips the game. Even if we simply convert that 3rd down, we almost certainly need a score on that drive to win
-1st and 20 at Bama's 10 after a holding call. Bryce throws a perfect ball to Metchie to the left for 40 yards. We would later score and make it 14-0
-Up 14-10 backed up. Bryce makes an incredible play on third down throwing to Billingsley while falling down. Bama later kicks a field goal to go up 17-10
-Tied 17-17. Busted coverage on 3rd & 10 leaves Metchie wide open for the first. Bama scores just before the half as well as prevents UGA from getting the ball in a 2 minute situation
-Tied 17-17. Bryce converts a 2nd and 10 with his legs and somehow recovers his own fumble amongst 4 UGA defenders. Bama would score to go up 24-17 at half.
-Up 31-17 in the 3rd. We force a redzone int as UGA looked to cut the game to 7. Our offense has to play the game quite differently if they score there
-Overall, Georgia was effective moving the ball. They just sputtered out. Excluding their 1 play kneel at the end of the half, 6 of their first 10 drives went for 50+ yards. But among those 6 were being held to a field goal, a redzone int, and a 4th down stop deep in Bama territory.
OPTIMISTIC VIEWPOINT: Despite all of the above, I don't see much or any of the first game being fluky and that much of it we can duplicate. Both teams were largely who they were
-The elite offenses have gotten to UGA lately. Tua comeback game, Jalen comeback game, Joe Burrow in the SECCCG, Bama last year, Bama this year.
-Bama was incredibly consistent on offense when the game was close. On Bama's first 7 drives, 6 went for 30+ yards and 5 went for 75+. The one poor drive in that span was due to a dropped ball on 3rd down on Bama's very first drive. It didn't matter where Bama's started field position was either
-Ifs and buts. You can play what-if with pretty much any competitive game. Afterall, the first huge missed play was a dropped pick-six by Bama that completely alters the feel of the game early. No 10-0 deficit that Bama has to make huge plays to overcome. And their best response drive was when they received a few questionable PIs when they were down 17-10
-Speaking of interceptions, we have now seen this song and dance with Bennett twice. He'll make multiple really nice throws which will help them move the ball. But a lot of those throws to Bowers and others were razor close and could easily fall incomplete. He wants to be a gunslinger even when his team is in a good situation. When the pressure is really on, his issues are exacerbated. And we have the personnel to pressure him plenty in passing situations
-The predictions of Bama's D versus Georgia's O mostly came true. UGA runs the ball pretty well but not elite in YPC. Bama is super elite at stopping the run. UGA had some success but not enough to carry the offense. This is obviously repeatable. They'll likely need throwing success
-Georgia's Offense is super efficient, but not very explosive. UGA hasn't relied on explosive plays, they aren't necessarily built to have them, and none of their skill players are particularly prone to have them. They had to be perfect in Game 1 for 10 plays to score a touchdown. It's likely they will be in that same scenario again.
-Similarly, if a team is gonna have a 3-play 70 yard drive, it'll most likely be Bama. Its not like Jameson's first TD was out of character for us. We have the biggest gamebreaker in CFB and have utilized him as such. Alabama has more capability to quickly counterpunch and/or blow the game open. And if UGA has a lead, we should be confident in our run defense keeping them from slowly choking away our chances.
OPTIMISTIC CONCLUSION In game 1, both teams were mostly who they were. The only true outliers were the Bama O-Line being better and the UGA D-backs being worse than expected. It'd be nice if Bama ran the ball well, but a modest 3.4 ypc from a hobbled Brian Robinson got the job done. On the other side, UGA's offensive output wasn't best case scenario for them, but other than better redzone efficiency, is exactly what they could hope for. If the true UGA d-backs are the ones that got exposed by the first elite offense they faced, then I love our odds
I know this is kinda ramble-y. But interested to see yall's take on both sides of the argument
WORRY: Bama made a ton of super timely plays in the 2nd and 3rd quarters that made feel like more of a beating than it actually was
Following the dropped pick-six, Bama went down 10-0 and was routinely put in a position to make plays. Which it did remarkably well.
-3rd and 2 Jameson Williams touchdown while down 10-0. Completely flips the game. Even if we simply convert that 3rd down, we almost certainly need a score on that drive to win
-1st and 20 at Bama's 10 after a holding call. Bryce throws a perfect ball to Metchie to the left for 40 yards. We would later score and make it 14-0
-Up 14-10 backed up. Bryce makes an incredible play on third down throwing to Billingsley while falling down. Bama later kicks a field goal to go up 17-10
-Tied 17-17. Busted coverage on 3rd & 10 leaves Metchie wide open for the first. Bama scores just before the half as well as prevents UGA from getting the ball in a 2 minute situation
-Tied 17-17. Bryce converts a 2nd and 10 with his legs and somehow recovers his own fumble amongst 4 UGA defenders. Bama would score to go up 24-17 at half.
-Up 31-17 in the 3rd. We force a redzone int as UGA looked to cut the game to 7. Our offense has to play the game quite differently if they score there
-Overall, Georgia was effective moving the ball. They just sputtered out. Excluding their 1 play kneel at the end of the half, 6 of their first 10 drives went for 50+ yards. But among those 6 were being held to a field goal, a redzone int, and a 4th down stop deep in Bama territory.
OPTIMISTIC VIEWPOINT: Despite all of the above, I don't see much or any of the first game being fluky and that much of it we can duplicate. Both teams were largely who they were
-The elite offenses have gotten to UGA lately. Tua comeback game, Jalen comeback game, Joe Burrow in the SECCCG, Bama last year, Bama this year.
-Bama was incredibly consistent on offense when the game was close. On Bama's first 7 drives, 6 went for 30+ yards and 5 went for 75+. The one poor drive in that span was due to a dropped ball on 3rd down on Bama's very first drive. It didn't matter where Bama's started field position was either
-Ifs and buts. You can play what-if with pretty much any competitive game. Afterall, the first huge missed play was a dropped pick-six by Bama that completely alters the feel of the game early. No 10-0 deficit that Bama has to make huge plays to overcome. And their best response drive was when they received a few questionable PIs when they were down 17-10
-Speaking of interceptions, we have now seen this song and dance with Bennett twice. He'll make multiple really nice throws which will help them move the ball. But a lot of those throws to Bowers and others were razor close and could easily fall incomplete. He wants to be a gunslinger even when his team is in a good situation. When the pressure is really on, his issues are exacerbated. And we have the personnel to pressure him plenty in passing situations
-The predictions of Bama's D versus Georgia's O mostly came true. UGA runs the ball pretty well but not elite in YPC. Bama is super elite at stopping the run. UGA had some success but not enough to carry the offense. This is obviously repeatable. They'll likely need throwing success
-Georgia's Offense is super efficient, but not very explosive. UGA hasn't relied on explosive plays, they aren't necessarily built to have them, and none of their skill players are particularly prone to have them. They had to be perfect in Game 1 for 10 plays to score a touchdown. It's likely they will be in that same scenario again.
-Similarly, if a team is gonna have a 3-play 70 yard drive, it'll most likely be Bama. Its not like Jameson's first TD was out of character for us. We have the biggest gamebreaker in CFB and have utilized him as such. Alabama has more capability to quickly counterpunch and/or blow the game open. And if UGA has a lead, we should be confident in our run defense keeping them from slowly choking away our chances.
OPTIMISTIC CONCLUSION In game 1, both teams were mostly who they were. The only true outliers were the Bama O-Line being better and the UGA D-backs being worse than expected. It'd be nice if Bama ran the ball well, but a modest 3.4 ypc from a hobbled Brian Robinson got the job done. On the other side, UGA's offensive output wasn't best case scenario for them, but other than better redzone efficiency, is exactly what they could hope for. If the true UGA d-backs are the ones that got exposed by the first elite offense they faced, then I love our odds
I know this is kinda ramble-y. But interested to see yall's take on both sides of the argument
This post was edited on 1/7/22 at 11:21 am
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Posted on 1/7/22 at 11:26 am to Glorious
Good post. I've been saying since the first game, this narrative that Bama dominated and really controlled that game is overblown. Obviously Bama made more of the key plays than Georgia did, but Georgia had enough success on offense and on defense (except for basically the middle 20 minutes of the game) to give me pause that with a few plays/breaks flipped the other way the outcome could be different.
Really bummed for the team and Metchie that he won't be out be there. I have suspicion/hope that Georgia will sell out to stop Williams and one or two surprise WR will be the breakout stars.
Really bummed for the team and Metchie that he won't be out be there. I have suspicion/hope that Georgia will sell out to stop Williams and one or two surprise WR will be the breakout stars.
Posted on 1/7/22 at 11:30 am to elposter
Alabama Defense vs Georgia Offense is pretty simple - do we force them into 3rd and 4+ (or 3rd and 7+) like we did enough in the 1st game.
Bennett is not a quality QB when he is in those situations.
Bennett is not a quality QB when he is in those situations.
Posted on 1/7/22 at 11:32 am to Glorious
Bama was getting the ball out in 3 or so seconds almost every attempt.
Yes BOB helped with some TE protect stuff but no one can pressure the QB in 3 seconds in college.
The OL change was mostly just eliminating the garbage slow developing pass attempts we couldn’t protect previously and some solid man/zone beater concepts that punished UGA for blitzing.
Oh and Bryce played one of the best games I’ve ever seen from a Bama QB, much less a sophomore.
UGA blitzed a ton and showed all kinds of new and exotic schemes, Bryce and BOB just had an answer for everything they did.
Yes BOB helped with some TE protect stuff but no one can pressure the QB in 3 seconds in college.
The OL change was mostly just eliminating the garbage slow developing pass attempts we couldn’t protect previously and some solid man/zone beater concepts that punished UGA for blitzing.
Oh and Bryce played one of the best games I’ve ever seen from a Bama QB, much less a sophomore.
UGA blitzed a ton and showed all kinds of new and exotic schemes, Bryce and BOB just had an answer for everything they did.
Posted on 1/7/22 at 11:34 am to Glorious
Agreed with most of your points, that game and I hate to oversimplify 3rd down conversions.
Alabama has been an elite 3rd down team all year, and it showed majorly in that game. Georgia was finally forced into some unfavorable 3rd downs and they struggled like they had all year.
I think Georgia is the one who has to manufacture some way to score points on big plays, which has been a struggle for them
Alabama has been an elite 3rd down team all year, and it showed majorly in that game. Georgia was finally forced into some unfavorable 3rd downs and they struggled like they had all year.
I think Georgia is the one who has to manufacture some way to score points on big plays, which has been a struggle for them
Posted on 1/7/22 at 11:37 am to UltimaParadox
quote:
Agreed with most of your points, that game and I hate to oversimplify 3rd down conversions.
Alabama has been an elite 3rd down team all year, and it showed majorly in that game. Georgia was finally forced into some unfavorable 3rd downs and they struggled like they had all year.
I think Georgia is the one who has to manufacture some way to score points on big plays, which has been a struggle for them
Yea, it's kind of the thing that neutralizes a lot of the other stuff. Georgia is an elite standard down defense and we are an average standard down offense, so it almost makes those moot. But we are the best 3rd (including 3rd and long) offense in the country, and Georgia is good but not great on 3rd and long defense. We basically just looked and said we'll play every down like it's 3rd and 6+, which led to how we played the game. Honestly, I don't expect to see much different this time, regardless of what they do.
Posted on 1/7/22 at 11:38 am to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
Alabama Defense vs Georgia Offense is pretty simple - do we force them into 3rd and 4+ (or 3rd and 7+) like we did enough in the 1st game.
Which I think we can reasonably expect unless the rush defense yields or perhaps UGA throws the ball a lot on early downs. I could see them attacking the young corners but a medium passing game to the outside on 1st and 2nd down would be a massive tendency break for them. Arguably the exact opposite of what made them so uber efficient
This post was edited on 1/7/22 at 11:41 am
Posted on 1/7/22 at 11:40 am to Glorious
quote:
Which I think we can reasonably expect unless the rush defense yields or perhaps UGA throws the ball a lot on early downs. I could see them attacking the young corners but a medium passing game to the outside on 1st and 2nd down would be a massive tendency break for them
And, it threatens to immediately put them behind the chains, which they desperately do not want.
It will be interesting how Monken decides to play this game. If Pickens is healthy and ready to play I'd expect no less than 6-7 deep shots to him on downs of their choosing (2nd and short, a few 1st downs, 3rd and short when they might go for it on 4th). Between our inexperience at CB and his abilities, it's by far their biggest chance to get explosive plays.
Posted on 1/7/22 at 12:18 pm to Glorious
Its pretty simple to me.
Winning Games:
(a) Our oline plays like they did in round 1
(b) Bryce steps into pressure and makes them pay early for bringing the house like many expect them to commit to doing this time (by going over the top, screen passes, hot routes or whatever) bama wins. Bryce has struggled some there, so I'm sure there will be tons of work on that end.
(c) If we struggle to a more middling offensive output like we have seen in other games, but front 7 gets a lot of pressure, I think we still win in a closer game with the superior QB and offense.
Losing Game: Essentially looks like 1st Quarter of SEC Championship early with them getting a lead but we aren't able to find the same page offensively without Metchie and aren't able to use our offense to take them out of their offensive gameplan.
I guess I should note that an oline effort in lower tier of what we have seen this year is also a loser but that seems obvious.
Winning Games:
(a) Our oline plays like they did in round 1
(b) Bryce steps into pressure and makes them pay early for bringing the house like many expect them to commit to doing this time (by going over the top, screen passes, hot routes or whatever) bama wins. Bryce has struggled some there, so I'm sure there will be tons of work on that end.
(c) If we struggle to a more middling offensive output like we have seen in other games, but front 7 gets a lot of pressure, I think we still win in a closer game with the superior QB and offense.
Losing Game: Essentially looks like 1st Quarter of SEC Championship early with them getting a lead but we aren't able to find the same page offensively without Metchie and aren't able to use our offense to take them out of their offensive gameplan.
I guess I should note that an oline effort in lower tier of what we have seen this year is also a loser but that seems obvious.
This post was edited on 1/7/22 at 2:10 pm
Posted on 1/7/22 at 1:38 pm to Glorious
What a great post. I think we were close to really blowing that game open but as you said, a few plays go the other way and it’s a nail biter. But that’s football.
I think this will be where the game is won. Bennett can certainly beat us but he has shown that when we put pressure on him, his issues come to the surface. That can be literal pressure from the defense but also the mental pressure that can come from trying to keep up with us if our offense gets hot. His frustration in the last two games has been very visible.
If we can get up on them early, I think he’ll get a big case of “here we go again” and will try to force things even more.
quote:
Speaking of interceptions, we have now seen this song and dance with Bennett twice. He'll make multiple really nice throws which will help them move the ball. But a lot of those throws to Bowers and others were razor close and could easily fall incomplete. He wants to be a gunslinger even when his team is in a good situation. When the pressure is really on, his issues are exacerbated. And we have the personnel to pressure him plenty in passing situations
I think this will be where the game is won. Bennett can certainly beat us but he has shown that when we put pressure on him, his issues come to the surface. That can be literal pressure from the defense but also the mental pressure that can come from trying to keep up with us if our offense gets hot. His frustration in the last two games has been very visible.
If we can get up on them early, I think he’ll get a big case of “here we go again” and will try to force things even more.
This post was edited on 1/7/22 at 1:38 pm
Posted on 1/7/22 at 2:11 pm to UltimaParadox
quote:
Alabama has been an elite 3rd down team all year, and it showed majorly in that game. Georgia was finally forced into some unfavorable 3rd downs and they struggled like they had all year.
Per NCAA official stats...
2 Alabama 205 108 .527
19 Georgia 163 74 .454
So we had a third more attempts, and were much more successful.
There's a lot of complaints I've had this season. But there's one thing that's undeniable. This team has been through the fricking trenches. They've played a ton of close, hard fought games. They've been in crunch time too many times, but almost always ended up on top. Georgia never got punched until the SEC Championship. They've yet to prove they can win when the pressure is on. And with the Bama streak and the title drought, the pressure in this game is insane.
Posted on 1/7/22 at 2:32 pm to CCTider
No doubt about it. Another thing that I believe could help us is that, despite the final score, I felt like Cincinnati challenged us in a different way and made Bryce be patient instead of forcing things. Their defense and secondary in particular was very good. Also think that Georgia beating Michigan is getting a little bit too much credit. Michigan can't throw the ball for shite. They struggled against Michigan State who has the worst pass defense statistically in college football. Hopefully we can get our passing game going and keep it going. Hopefully someone outside of Williams, Brooks and Slade Bolden can break out.
Posted on 1/7/22 at 2:33 pm to CCTider
“In war there is but one favorable moment; the great art is to seize it!” - Napoleon
In our case there will be multiple. In the last game we jumped at their every mistake other than the pick six on the first drive. If we’re focused then those opportunities will come again and we’ll exploit them. I trust Bryce to seize those opportunities better than Stetson. Revenge for Georgia be damned. I feel like our guys will treat this game business-like and play with determination and not reckless abandon.
In our case there will be multiple. In the last game we jumped at their every mistake other than the pick six on the first drive. If we’re focused then those opportunities will come again and we’ll exploit them. I trust Bryce to seize those opportunities better than Stetson. Revenge for Georgia be damned. I feel like our guys will treat this game business-like and play with determination and not reckless abandon.
This post was edited on 1/7/22 at 2:34 pm
Posted on 1/7/22 at 2:41 pm to CCTider
quote:
They've yet to prove they can win when the pressure is on
They haven't been in a 4th quarter within one score since Clemson in their very first game of the season. Obviously that is mostly because they have been so good they dominated everyone, but they basically haven't had to play under end of game pressure all year.
Posted on 1/7/22 at 3:23 pm to elposter
I think Saban or BoB changed the offense after the first drive of the second half and never had to return to the original plan since the game was not in danger after that. And I think they did so to allow UGA to believe they had made good adjustments and to focus on those adjustments for this game.
Saban is always playing a game within the game, and I think UGA is going to go into halftime down by at least 17 and not sure what to do.
Saban is always playing a game within the game, and I think UGA is going to go into halftime down by at least 17 and not sure what to do.
Posted on 1/7/22 at 3:48 pm to elposter
How much difference will it make to have B Rob back at 100% ? Obviously he played great against Cincy but Georgia is a different match up. We have to have some balance but a run first game plan won't work against this front seven.
Posted on 1/7/22 at 5:51 pm to Glorious
Every play in a contested game is huge. No different in the SEC Championship or for the Natty. 2 or 3 plays will be remembered as the key plays but they all are of equal value.
Posted on 1/7/22 at 6:18 pm to bamatide07
quote:
How much difference will it make to have B Rob back at 100% ? Obviously he played great against Cincy but Georgia is a different match up. We have to have some balance but a run first game plan won't work against this front seven.
Robinson being healthy will help just from a pass-blocking standpoint even if his rush yards are limited. He's a big guy, and the last thing a tired defense who's been chasing receivers all night wants is to tackle a big RB in the 4th quarter. It showed in Atlanta, and he even had a few nice runs earlier in the game.
Posted on 1/7/22 at 9:33 pm to Marktastic86
Other than SOG, I've not seen anyone else mention Pickens as an X factor...am I over-worrying about him changing UGA's gameplan into a much different one than was in SECCG?
Posted on 1/7/22 at 9:40 pm to Marktastic86
Hopefully Trey Sanders can finally start hitting his stride. He was looking good at the end of the game on Friday.
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