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re: Gene Chestnik-“Indiana is going to roll Alabama. They’re a better team
Posted on 12/22/25 at 9:32 pm to SummerOfGeorge
Posted on 12/22/25 at 9:32 pm to SummerOfGeorge
The biggest underdiscussed thing about this game is the fact that Indiana has played 3 defenses in the same realm as Alabama : Ohio State, Oregon and Iowa.
They averaged:
19 PPG (7 vs Oregon was a pick 6)
334 YPG
5.36 YPP
They have a Tennessee bit to their game that they are ruthlessly efficient at their base offense, and if you can't stop it they are going to get 10 yards or more on every play the entire game. So against average to bad defenses they absolutely annihilate stat lines.
But if a team can stop that base play and make them do other things without bringing down a safety, they all of a sudden become a much less effective offense.
Scoring 56 vs Purdue, 56 vs UCLA and 63 vs Illinois mean absolutely zero to this game. The things they could do without any push back against those 3 teams do not exist in a game against us. It is entirely irrelevant.
Interestingly enough, that's basically what we averaged against Top 10 defenses this year. We just played almost all Top 17 defenses. The times we didn't - Vandy, Wisconsin, ULM, EIU, Tennessee - we averaged about 40 PPG. But we played a lot of "bad" teams overall (Carolina, Auburn, LSU) who weren't great teams but were EXCELLENT defenses.
They averaged:
19 PPG (7 vs Oregon was a pick 6)
334 YPG
5.36 YPP
They have a Tennessee bit to their game that they are ruthlessly efficient at their base offense, and if you can't stop it they are going to get 10 yards or more on every play the entire game. So against average to bad defenses they absolutely annihilate stat lines.
But if a team can stop that base play and make them do other things without bringing down a safety, they all of a sudden become a much less effective offense.
Scoring 56 vs Purdue, 56 vs UCLA and 63 vs Illinois mean absolutely zero to this game. The things they could do without any push back against those 3 teams do not exist in a game against us. It is entirely irrelevant.
Interestingly enough, that's basically what we averaged against Top 10 defenses this year. We just played almost all Top 17 defenses. The times we didn't - Vandy, Wisconsin, ULM, EIU, Tennessee - we averaged about 40 PPG. But we played a lot of "bad" teams overall (Carolina, Auburn, LSU) who weren't great teams but were EXCELLENT defenses.
This post was edited on 12/22/25 at 9:37 pm
2
Posted on 12/22/25 at 9:36 pm to Amarillo Tide
2 things we have going for us:
Ohio St was a highly emotionally charged game. Their super bowl game.
Indiana is #1 and not used to the weight of wearing the crown.
Ohio St was a highly emotionally charged game. Their super bowl game.
Indiana is #1 and not used to the weight of wearing the crown.
Posted on 12/22/25 at 9:40 pm to Shocco
I really hope having a month off throws off a lot of timing in their offense, at least for the first few series.
Posted on 12/22/25 at 9:45 pm to SummerOfGeorge
That’s a good stat line and a good barometer of what’s to come.
When I look at the scores of those games
OSU 10-13
Oregon 20-30 (pick 6) as you mentioned so really 20-23
Iowa 20-15 (Iowa isn’t known for great offense) Iowa tied the game with 2 mins left in the 4th.
They can be beaten. Just don’t give them anything to take advantage of.
When I look at the scores of those games
OSU 10-13
Oregon 20-30 (pick 6) as you mentioned so really 20-23
Iowa 20-15 (Iowa isn’t known for great offense) Iowa tied the game with 2 mins left in the 4th.
They can be beaten. Just don’t give them anything to take advantage of.
Posted on 12/22/25 at 9:55 pm to CrimsonBoz
I think the Brooks Austin guy hit the nail on the head in his film breakdown of the first round game. I just watched it and he sorta laid out something I've felt about our offense for weeks.
If Alabama gets around a dozen effective runs where 1 or 2 are explosive, they are hard to beat on offense. Alabama doesn't need to run for 200 or more. Alabama doesn't even need to run for 100 yards. They just need enough of their runs to be effective that they can still threaten the DC with a possibility of a run in the 4th quarter.
If Alabama can get that kind of run game on NYD, I feel like they've got a real shot at it.
If Alabama gets around a dozen effective runs where 1 or 2 are explosive, they are hard to beat on offense. Alabama doesn't need to run for 200 or more. Alabama doesn't even need to run for 100 yards. They just need enough of their runs to be effective that they can still threaten the DC with a possibility of a run in the 4th quarter.
If Alabama can get that kind of run game on NYD, I feel like they've got a real shot at it.
Posted on 12/22/25 at 10:01 pm to PastorJ
quote:
Indiana has not played a defense like the one Bama has.
This just isn't true. They played OSU and beat them head up. Give them their due.
quote:
Indiana is not as battle tested as Bama is.
Yes but they are battle tested. They beat Oregon in Autzen and the scoreline didn't represent the arse kicking. They had last minute drives to win letdown games and held off a very talented OSU.
quote:
Indiana is a good team but they are not the world beaters the sports media is making them out to be.
I agree here. I believe OSU, Indiana, Georgia, Alabama are the same level at full health; any team can win.
I feel we have a good shot because our DC has shown he can adjust on the fly and won't marry a bad gameplan. We also have fantastic DBs and can get pressure on QBs without blitzing. Indiana has a Heisman winner but the guy is a pocket passer. We eat those
Posted on 12/22/25 at 10:02 pm to Diego Ricardo
The only way we will get those runs is to vertically challenge defenses to keep their safeties honest
Posted on 12/22/25 at 10:03 pm to Diego Ricardo
quote:
They're a flat 1st quarter v. Texas A&M after that war in Baton Rouge from probably being a legit GOAT team with a 14-0 record. I think 2012 may be Saban's best team but the blemish v. Manziel will keep them from ever being very high on a non-partisan top teams of all-time list.
Yeah Johnny Football was just unconscious good that day. It seemed for a time that only coked out QBs having games of their lives could beat Bama
Posted on 12/22/25 at 10:05 pm to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
You don't fake those 2 wins. They are legit.
100% agree. Vegas isnt fooled by padded stats. That 7 point advantage tells us a lot too
Posted on 12/22/25 at 10:11 pm to SummerOfGeorge
Ohio State was a shanked field goal away from sending that game into overtime. They were favored and didn’t play well at all. Fortunately for Alabama, we have played some very tough games throughout the season. Our win at UGA is equivalent to their win at Oregon. Oh and their win at Penn State where they had to convert multiple crazy throws to beat a team with an interim coach. IU is a very good team. No doubt. But I like how battle tested we are. I liked that DeBoer said that we are healthier than we’ve been in a long time.
This post was edited on 12/22/25 at 10:13 pm
Posted on 12/22/25 at 10:14 pm to Diego Ricardo
Way too many people are impressed with OSU, they are deadly...on paper. Bama has seen better defenses and offenses this year than what Indiana brings. If Bama does not shoot themselves in the foot (and that is a big if with this squad) then Bama wins convincingly. The level of competition Bama has played and what Indiana has played are not the same. This is not a good matchup for Indiana.
Posted on 12/22/25 at 10:15 pm to My2Bits
They aren’t very deep
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