re: Bama Football Tidings

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Cincy’s ground game in general, and Ford’s rushing numbers in particular, should be taken with a whole shaker of salt. It is a run-first offense, but Ford has been a boom-bust player. There were several games where he went well over 10 YPC...and an equal number where he was at 3-4 YPC. In the two games against Power 5 teams, he was very much Just A Guy: 37 carries for 137 carries (3.7 YPC), and just two TDS — neither of which were against Notre Dame.

In fact, UC underperformed the average rushing output by all opponents of ND and IU, both in YPA and YPG.
The performance of the running game against P5 opponents hints at an offensive line that is very average at its heart. The Bearcats allow a 16% play-disruption rate, which has resulted in a rushing efficiency of just 24%. And, when only 1/4th of your running plays are efficient ones, you run the ball 56% of the time, and yet 1 out of evert 6 plays are no-gainers or losses, then you see a fairly high negative-drive offense (for a playoff team); one that sits at just 44th.

That is a whole lot of negative drives. This means the Bearcats are geting behind the chains a great deal. For a team that wants to win by controlling the LOS, RTDB, and making manageable throws, that is brutal. This is by far the worst negative-drive efficiency offense of the 2021 playoff field, and narrowly edges out the 2015 Washington Huskies and 2017 Clemson Tigers for the worst of the playoff era.

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With all of these negative drives putting UC into bad spots, it’s no surprise then that the Bearcats are fairly mediocre on 3rd down. They sit at just 41% on the year (57th). Against teams with winning records, that number falls to 39%. Against the two Power 5 teams, Cincy was simply awful: 28% conversion rate. And against two ranked teams on the schedule, UC was indescribably bad — just 10.53%.

It goes without saying that all of these marks are lows for the 2021 playoff field, and the very worst of the playoff era. In fact, until Participation Trophy Expansion begins, I don’t think we’ll see a worse output.

Alabama BTW? Second-best in the nation in creating disruptive plays on 3rd down — 51% of all 3rd down snaps are going for no-gain, losses, batted passes, sacks and the like. Godspeed, Bearcats.

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Where does that blame lie? It’s equally apportioned, but we can start with Ridder who is, on third down, everything that Bryce Young is not. He completes just 44% of his tosses on 3rd down, has not thrown a score on 3rd and long all season, and has generated just two explosive passing plays of 25+ on third down...all year. In addition, his passer rating drops fully 60 points overall when 3rd down arrives

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Cincinnati took in the Dallas Cowboys’ 56-14 win over Washington on Sunday at AT&T Stadium. Alabama did not.

Other than attending practice, the top-ranked Crimson Tide won’t be leaving the Hilton Anatole much this week as it continues to prepare for the Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic semifinal. With COVID cases rising and bowl games all across the country being affected, that was a decision made by Alabama’s leaders shortly after the Tide landed in Dallas on Sunday.

“As the leadership group, we came together and we just had to tell the team, ‘We know what’s at stake. It’s either win or go home, and we don’t wanna go home. We wanna win,’” linebacker Will Anderson said Monday. “It was like a medical call. I think everybody just needs to be locked in on what’s going on right now, and the main focus is winning this game and being all in. Nobody needs to be distracted, going out, running the streets or anything like that.

“And I think when you have a group of guys like that on leadership that we all can come to the same thing, nobody was being selfish, everybody had a mutual understanding of we know what’s going on, it was really good. … The team has responded very well. There hasn’t been any complaining, no negativity. Nobody’s been a cancer. Everybody responded the right way, and practice has been great. And I think that’s what it’s all about.”

Anderson, a sophomore, is one of Alabama’s four permanent team captains, which are voted on by UA’s players. Only in his second year in the program, the 6-foot-4, 253-pound linebacker has developed into one of the Crimson Tide’s most vocal leaders as the year has progressed.

“I think it’s very rare to have a guy with his skill set, his ability to be the type of person that he is,” defensive coordinator Pete Golding said. “It’s rare for your best players to be your best leaders and your best people. Normally, there’s a flaw in people. And I’m not saying he doesn’t have flaws, but I ain’t found one. He’s a kid that loves football, works his butt off. He’s in there with Coach Sal all the time, getting extra tape.

“He’s another guy that puts it on tape, whether it’s practice or a game. Nobody can question his work ethic, his attitude, his intensity. So when he steps at somebody, there’s nothing they can say.”
Prior to traveling to Dallas after Christmas, Alabama implemented its COVID-19 protocols from last season, such as wearing masks and social distancing in meetings. Offensive coordinator Bill O’Brien and offensive line coach Doug Marrone tested positive for the virus last week, but the Crimson Tide hasn’t had any players affected, Nick Saban said on Sunday.

To try and avoid any further complications, Alabama’s leadership council voted the way it did. After all, if one semifinal team is unable to play, the unavailable team “shall forfeit the game and its opponent would advance to the national championship game,” per new CFP protocols.
What the Tide is experiencing reminded Golding of the 2020 season, which didn’t feature a lot of bowl-game activities for Alabama’s players in either Dallas (Rose Bowl) or Miami, but ended in the desired result – the Crimson Tide hoisting the golden national championship trophy.

“We’ve been through this, which has helped,” Golding told reporters via Zoom. “I think we’ve got very unselfish guys. I think we’ve got good leadership on our football team. And they stood up the other day and one guy on our team said, ‘I’ve never experienced a bowl week, but I have experienced getting a national championship. And that’s what we’re here for.’

“I think bowl games are a great concept, but we’re playing to win a championship. And in order to win a championship, you’ve gotta win this game versus a very quality, good football team. If our entire focus of every individual on our team is not on that, then we’re not gonna give ourselves our best chance. Having been there before, I think our kids understand that through great leadership, obviously, of Coach Saban, but then through leadership of our team.

“I don’t think they’re worried about going to the Cowboys game. I don’t think they’re worried about Six Flags. I think they’re worried about what can they do consistently, play in and play out, to put the best product on the field to be able to win the football game. And I think that’s not easy, especially with guys at that age, but having been here and the culture that Coach Saban has set, that’s what’s expected, and that’s what these kids expect.” 

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