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re: UA Basketball (16-15, 8-10)
Posted on 2/24/20 at 12:30 am to mistaken4193
Posted on 2/24/20 at 12:30 am to mistaken4193
Was doing some research on what teams got in with 19 and 20 wins last year and what their resumes looked like compared to ours and here's what I came up with.
The first number is strength of schedule
The second number is NET ranking
Made it in with 19
Florida 16 31
Baylor 29 39
Ohio State 23 55
Oklahoma 15 37
made it with 20
Louisville 12 22
ole miss 43 36
Syracuse 33 42
Seton Hall 40 57
We are currently
Alabama - 36 40
Just going by this our number is pretty similar to Baylors who got in with 19 wins and really similar to Ole Miss, Syracuse, Seton Hall who got in with 20. Our net still has a chance to raise a good bit, maybe close to 30, if we got on the run needed to make the NCAAT these last 4 games.
All of these teams had at least three quad 1 wins. We currently have two, but I wouldn't focus on that too much yet since in a conference tourney we could pick up two quad one wins in two days.
With 19 wins I'd say we would be right on the bubble with decent chance to get in.
With 20 wins I think we would very likely get in.
With that being said, with how up and down we've been, I'm not counting on us to go on this run needed to make the tournament. If we make it great, but I'm not getting my hopes up.
The first number is strength of schedule
The second number is NET ranking
Made it in with 19
Florida 16 31
Baylor 29 39
Ohio State 23 55
Oklahoma 15 37
made it with 20
Louisville 12 22
ole miss 43 36
Syracuse 33 42
Seton Hall 40 57
We are currently
Alabama - 36 40
Just going by this our number is pretty similar to Baylors who got in with 19 wins and really similar to Ole Miss, Syracuse, Seton Hall who got in with 20. Our net still has a chance to raise a good bit, maybe close to 30, if we got on the run needed to make the NCAAT these last 4 games.
All of these teams had at least three quad 1 wins. We currently have two, but I wouldn't focus on that too much yet since in a conference tourney we could pick up two quad one wins in two days.
With 19 wins I'd say we would be right on the bubble with decent chance to get in.
With 20 wins I think we would very likely get in.
With that being said, with how up and down we've been, I'm not counting on us to go on this run needed to make the tournament. If we make it great, but I'm not getting my hopes up.
This post was edited on 2/24/20 at 1:58 am
1
Posted on 2/24/20 at 12:32 am to mistaken4193
Not sure but when it showed him on camera last night he still looked a little pudgy. He may have lost some weight but still doesn't look in shape.
This post was edited on 2/24/20 at 1:20 am
Posted on 2/24/20 at 6:14 am to mistaken4193
Just thinking....Saturday was probably our best offensive game in a good 15 years
Posted on 2/24/20 at 7:42 am to mistaken4193
I think Tuesday night is pretty much an elimination game between us and State. We win and I think we are in good shape. Lose and I don’t think we end up getting in.
Posted on 2/24/20 at 7:55 am to Allthatfades
Would definitely make it a lot harder if we lose it but I don’t think it would eliminate us.
Could still win the last 3 then two in the tourney to get to 20 wins.
Could still win the last 3 then two in the tourney to get to 20 wins.
This post was edited on 2/24/20 at 7:56 am
Posted on 2/24/20 at 8:05 am to CrimsonFever
This team seems to respond to adversity (losing streaks, bad losses, etc) pretty well, and seemingly doesn’t handle success that well, so who knows
A State win put us in pretty good shape, but we could easily lose 2 of our next 3 after that. On the other hand, we could lose to State and then win 3 in a row.
There is a completely alternative explanation though - that it really doesn’t have much to do with how we deal with adversity or handle success. That we’re a relatively high variance team that isn’t that great - we shoot a lot of 3s and generally shoot them pretty well, but we don’t get to the basket enough, we don’t rebound that well, we’re not especially good defensively, and we foul too much.
A team like that will win some games but will struggle to run off 3-4 wins in a row. Especially considering our schedule.
A State win put us in pretty good shape, but we could easily lose 2 of our next 3 after that. On the other hand, we could lose to State and then win 3 in a row.
There is a completely alternative explanation though - that it really doesn’t have much to do with how we deal with adversity or handle success. That we’re a relatively high variance team that isn’t that great - we shoot a lot of 3s and generally shoot them pretty well, but we don’t get to the basket enough, we don’t rebound that well, we’re not especially good defensively, and we foul too much.
A team like that will win some games but will struggle to run off 3-4 wins in a row. Especially considering our schedule.
Posted on 2/24/20 at 9:24 am to Crede15
Regarding Hawkins, it is pretty evident that Nate has decided he’s not going to play a role this year. I don’t know if that’s because of his physical condition or because he’s just not good enough or mot good enough yet. The low post in the SEC is a man’s game and you can get pushed around pretty easily if you aren’t up to the challenge. Whatever the reason, it’s obvious Nate has made a decision on him that he’s not going to play much at all. The question becomes is he trying to save him for when he is ready next season or after or is he trying to send the message that he can’t make it here?
Posted on 2/24/20 at 10:59 am to Allthatfades
I think we could overcome a loss Tuesday if we win the last 3 plus 1 in the tourney.
But if we could somehow win these last 4 , I think we're in regardless of the Tourney. Obviously winning a game in the tourney would solidify it, but finishing 19-12 (11-7) I think we're on the 10 or 11 line.
But if we could somehow win these last 4 , I think we're in regardless of the Tourney. Obviously winning a game in the tourney would solidify it, but finishing 19-12 (11-7) I think we're on the 10 or 11 line.
Posted on 2/24/20 at 11:02 am to CrimsonFever
Bracketlogy odds has us at 80% chance with 18 wins..90% at 19 wins..
We have to get to 19 wins total imo. Even if one of those is in the SEC T
We have to get to 19 wins total imo. Even if one of those is in the SEC T
Posted on 2/24/20 at 11:04 am to cmayes56
Posted on 2/24/20 at 11:08 am to cmayes56
I've said all year, even after the chicken littles abandoned ship in the first couple of weeks, that I still think we can make the tourney. And I haven't changed my mind. However, it's crunch time now and they're going to have to go on a run.
But, I'm just focusing on watching the games and enjoying the ride. You'll drive yourself crazy if you spend too much time crunching the tournament numbers.
But, I'm just focusing on watching the games and enjoying the ride. You'll drive yourself crazy if you spend too much time crunching the tournament numbers.
Posted on 2/24/20 at 11:14 am to Teague
Alabama Basketball has been driving me crazy since Leon Douglas missed freethrows against Indiana in 1976..
I'm a lost cause..lol
I'm a lost cause..lol
Posted on 2/24/20 at 11:24 am to cmayes56
the committee takes road/neutral wins into consideration so I doubt there's any scenario where we 1 and done in the SEC tourney and get in I'm thinking at least 2 wins in conference tournament and not on Kentucky side of the bracket will help us out big time
Posted on 2/24/20 at 12:16 pm to 256bradley
Posted on 2/24/20 at 12:17 pm to 256bradley
last year, the committee said they didnt use any conference tournament results in deciding the teams that made the tournament. They did use it for seeding. Obviously they had to take the conf champs though.
This post was edited on 2/24/20 at 12:18 pm
Posted on 2/24/20 at 12:17 pm to rockiee
Rockiee with the goods
Posted on 2/24/20 at 12:24 pm to SummerOfGeorge
Saw that on my timeline and was one of the most useful and easiest graphics to look at quickly and see where most of the bubble teams stand
It can be a very stressful time but these next four weeks or so are my favorite time of the year, even when my team isn't involved.
It can be a very stressful time but these next four weeks or so are my favorite time of the year, even when my team isn't involved.
Posted on 2/24/20 at 12:25 pm to rockiee
quote:
when my team isn't involved.
Your team is very much involved - why aren't they on that list?
This post was edited on 2/24/20 at 12:26 pm
Posted on 2/24/20 at 12:39 pm to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
Your team is very much involved - why aren't they on that list?
Yeah they are still alive but I mean even in years when it is already concluded.
I'm not sure why we are not there. I don't think we are in that first four out or even next 8 tbh but I believe we are somewhere in the next 16 teams
Posted on 2/24/20 at 12:41 pm to rockiee
HOGS BACK AMERICA FVVVVVCKED
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