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Posted on 2/22/21 at 11:58 am to Glorious
I wouldn't say I'm worried about it. I think if all else is equal our major advantage in Q1 wins will 100% keep us above them in seeding if it comes to that. I just don't really care for how much weight NET puts on efficiency numbers and I think Houston being ahead of teams like us and Ohio State is reflective of a glitch in their formula. Same goes for teams like Virginia, Loyola Chicago, and Colgate being so high based solely on efficiency despite their resumés not being very impressive.
This post was edited on 2/22/21 at 11:58 am
Posted on 2/22/21 at 12:00 pm to mistaken4193
Never would I state "easily" make title game
Posted on 2/22/21 at 12:09 pm to mistaken4193
I’m a little weary of Ole Miss. I remember a few years where we were on the bubble and we gave the 1 or 2 seed in the SEC the fight of their lives
Posted on 2/22/21 at 12:12 pm to Robot Santa
quote:
I just don't really care for how much weight NET puts on efficiency numbers and I think Houston being ahead of teams like us and Ohio State is reflective of a glitch in their formula. Same goes for teams like Virginia, Loyola Chicago, and Colgate being so high based solely on efficiency despite their resumés not being very impressive.
Agreed. Results should absolutely be the biggest criteria. As of right now though the committee definitely respects the fact that we have a bunch of good wins and no particularly bad losses
Posted on 2/22/21 at 12:20 pm to Robot Santa
quote:
I don't like how Houston is ahead of us in NET despite the fact that we have almost as many Q1 wins (7) as they have Q1/2 games played (8).
I said this the other day. Any ranking that has Houston above us I can't take seriously. They are above us on Kem Pom as well.
The AP has us at 6 and them at 12 and I think that's about right.
This post was edited on 2/22/21 at 12:23 pm
Posted on 2/22/21 at 12:59 pm to CrimsonFever
I really like Torvik's "Win Above Bubble" metric
1. Gonzaga (+7.4)
2. Michigan (+6.3)
3. Ohio State (+5.8)
4. Baylor (+5.5)
5. Illinois (+5.1)
6. Alabama (+4.6)
7. Iowa (+4.0)
8. West Virginia (+3.9)
9. Villanova (+3.7)
10. Clemson (+3.5)
15. Arkansas (+3.0)
22. Missouri (+2.7)
29. Tennessee (+1.8)
32. LSU (+1.6)
41. Florida (+1.2)
69. Georgia (-0.9)
80. Ole Miss (-1.4)
96. Texas A&M (-2.3)
101. Auburn (-2.3)
108. Kentucky (-2.4)
123. Mississippi St (-2.8)
157. South Carolina (-4.0)
183. Vanderbilt (-5.0)
Some other interesting ones...
21. Houston (+2.8)
24. Drake (+2.4)
26. North Carolina (+2.2)
28. Texas (+1.8)
37. Loyola (+1.4)
42. Texas Tech (+1.2)
46. Maryland (+1.1)
52. Seton Hall (+0.5)
58. Stanford (+0.2)
70. Duke (-1.0)
quote:
The basic explanation of WAB is that it is precisely what the name sounds like: the number of wins a team has above a typical bubble team’s expectation. In other words, it answers the question, “How many more wins does Team A have than the number of wins a bubble team would be expected to have against the same schedule?”
For example, if Team A is 14-2, and a bubble team would be expected to go 11-5 against Team A’s schedule, then Team A will have a WAB of 3. A negative WAB indicates a team that has won fewer games than what would be expected of a bubble team against its schedule; if Team A were instead 10-6 against that same schedule, its WAB would be -1. A notable feature of WAB is that it doesn’t take into account margin of victory. It isn’t attempting to predict future results, rather it’s analyzing the strength of a team’s résumé based purely on wins and losses.
1. Gonzaga (+7.4)
2. Michigan (+6.3)
3. Ohio State (+5.8)
4. Baylor (+5.5)
5. Illinois (+5.1)
6. Alabama (+4.6)
7. Iowa (+4.0)
8. West Virginia (+3.9)
9. Villanova (+3.7)
10. Clemson (+3.5)
15. Arkansas (+3.0)
22. Missouri (+2.7)
29. Tennessee (+1.8)
32. LSU (+1.6)
41. Florida (+1.2)
69. Georgia (-0.9)
80. Ole Miss (-1.4)
96. Texas A&M (-2.3)
101. Auburn (-2.3)
108. Kentucky (-2.4)
123. Mississippi St (-2.8)
157. South Carolina (-4.0)
183. Vanderbilt (-5.0)
Some other interesting ones...
21. Houston (+2.8)
24. Drake (+2.4)
26. North Carolina (+2.2)
28. Texas (+1.8)
37. Loyola (+1.4)
42. Texas Tech (+1.2)
46. Maryland (+1.1)
52. Seton Hall (+0.5)
58. Stanford (+0.2)
70. Duke (-1.0)
This post was edited on 2/22/21 at 1:07 pm
Posted on 2/22/21 at 1:06 pm to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
“How many more wins does Team A have than the number of wins a bubble team would be expected to have against the same schedule?”
Do they share their data? Or simply provide the WAB metric? I’d be interested to see which games they projected a bubble team to lose from our schedule. I’m guessing we probably had a negative WAB in OOC games and made up a lot of ground once conference play started.
Posted on 2/22/21 at 1:10 pm to CaptainMorgan
quote:
Do they share their data? Or simply provide the WAB metric? I’d be interested to see which games they projected a bubble team to lose from our schedule. I’m guessing we probably had a negative WAB in OOC games and made up a lot of ground once conference play started.
Alabama Team Page
The "WAB" column tells you the aggregate WAB (which you can obviously figure out game by game from). Our WAB going into conference play was -0.7.
Biggest Drops
1. Western Kentucky (-0.7)
2. Stanford (-0.5)
2. Clemson (-0.5)
4. @ Missouri (-0.4)
5. @ Oklahoma (-0.3)
Biggest Gains
1. @ Tennessee (+0.7)
1. @ LSU (+0.7)
3. @ Kentucky (+0.6)
4. @ Auburn (+0.5)
4. Florida (+0.5)
4. Kentucky (+0.5)
4. LSU (+0.5)
This post was edited on 2/22/21 at 1:18 pm
Posted on 2/22/21 at 3:13 pm to mistaken4193
where's auburn?
Posted on 2/22/21 at 4:13 pm to SummerOfGeorge
#7 in the Coaches poll
Haters in the coaches poll have the Tide at #7
Missouri and Tennesse drop out
Haters in the coaches poll have the Tide at #7
Missouri and Tennesse drop out
Posted on 2/22/21 at 4:28 pm to Alabama_Fan
Alabama Is Looking Like An SEC Powerhouse … In Basketball
The all-consuming wave of the Alabama Crimson Tide was supposed to dissipate in January after Nick Saban claimed his seventh national title. Instead, it appears to have swelled and swallowed the SEC again, this time on a different field of play.
Shortly after capping its best season in program history on the gridiron, Alabama is in the midst of its best season in program history on the hardwood. The Alabama men’s basketball team went from unranked in the AP preseason poll to the top 10 and figures to snap a 15-season streak of failing to appear in the AP postseason poll.
In less than two seasons as head coach, Nate Oats has already been awarded a nearly $1 million-per-year pay raise and an extension through 2026-27. He turned an SEC afterthought into the conference standard bearer, with a vice grip on the standings. Suddenly and surprisingly, a team that was picked to finish fifth in the SEC standings now has a 30.1 percent chance of entering the NCAA Tournament as a No. 1 seed for the first time.....
The all-consuming wave of the Alabama Crimson Tide was supposed to dissipate in January after Nick Saban claimed his seventh national title. Instead, it appears to have swelled and swallowed the SEC again, this time on a different field of play.
Shortly after capping its best season in program history on the gridiron, Alabama is in the midst of its best season in program history on the hardwood. The Alabama men’s basketball team went from unranked in the AP preseason poll to the top 10 and figures to snap a 15-season streak of failing to appear in the AP postseason poll.
In less than two seasons as head coach, Nate Oats has already been awarded a nearly $1 million-per-year pay raise and an extension through 2026-27. He turned an SEC afterthought into the conference standard bearer, with a vice grip on the standings. Suddenly and surprisingly, a team that was picked to finish fifth in the SEC standings now has a 30.1 percent chance of entering the NCAA Tournament as a No. 1 seed for the first time.....
Posted on 2/22/21 at 5:01 pm to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
The "WAB" column tells you the aggregate WAB (which you can obviously figure out game by game from). Our WAB going into conference play was -0.7.
Much appreciated!
The WKU loss still pisses me off. A lot of basketball fans hate Calipari or Roy Williams, maybe Bill Self, but I can't stand Rick Stansbury. If it wasn't for that game jump starting our run this season, I don't think I could have dealt with that loss. I was absolutely pissed that day and didn't watch another game until we beat UT.
We're currently 6th (4.6) in WAB with opportunities to pick up 0.69 WAB @ Arkansas and 0.54 WAB @ MSU. That would get us to 5.83 WAB and tied for 3rd with Ohio State, although they have some good opportunities as well.
Also, Torvik has great information for a free site.
This post was edited on 2/22/21 at 5:46 pm
Posted on 2/22/21 at 6:27 pm to Alabama_Fan
I thought we were going to move past 'Nova too.
Posted on 2/22/21 at 6:53 pm to LovetheLord
quote:
I thought we were going to move past 'Nova too.
We’re only 8 points behind them, but I kind of though we would jump them too after they got thumped by Creighton. They play Creighton again a week from tomorrow, so we might have a chance there if we take care of Arkansas. As much credit as the B1G is getting this year, I’m not sure we will get a chance to beat out any of those three for a top 5 spot though.
Posted on 2/22/21 at 6:54 pm to LovetheLord
quote:
Oats said his guess is that Alabama will pick up a road game for Saturday, March 6 but it won’t be Texas A&M. He said an announcement is expected by Thursday or Friday of this week.
Interesting. Leaves Vandy, Florida, Ole Miss, and UGA
Hopefully Vandy
This post was edited on 2/22/21 at 6:55 pm
Posted on 2/22/21 at 6:56 pm to mistaken4193
That’s the only game we missed, but they postponed 4 or 5, right? I guess they have a game that takes precedent, but it will definitely be interesting to see who we get.
Wish we could play LSU again
Wish we could play LSU again
Posted on 2/22/21 at 6:56 pm to mistaken4193
I bet Aggy doesn't play another game this year.
Posted on 2/22/21 at 6:58 pm to Robot Santa
My guess it'll be Vandy or Georgia.
Posted on 2/22/21 at 7:00 pm to Panthers4life
I’m gonna say it will be bullshite if they make us go to Gainesville or Oxford to play a hungry/desperate Ole Miss.
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