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re: Alabama Basketball Megathread | 26-7 (16-2)
Posted on 1/19/21 at 11:57 am to Chadaristic
Posted on 1/19/21 at 11:57 am to Chadaristic
That is pretty interesting
1
Posted on 1/19/21 at 12:00 pm to SummerOfGeorge
Tennessee with a 99% Offensive SQ rate and a 100% defensive SQ rate
Damn
Damn
Posted on 1/19/21 at 12:01 pm to Chadaristic
I'd like to see those stats for the games we won. He implies that we should be undefeated based on shot quality, but I'm just curious to see if there are any trends present across all of our games.
Posted on 1/19/21 at 12:02 pm to SummerOfGeorge
Kentucky with the 7th lowest Rim & 3 Rate in the country.
It's wild to me that a guy like Cal has not adapted at all to modern college basketball.
It's wild to me that a guy like Cal has not adapted at all to modern college basketball.
Posted on 1/19/21 at 12:12 pm to SummerOfGeorge
I'll be honest, I don't expect a close game. Not because they aren't both good teams, but this is like a championship game in football: both teams are good enough that if you fall behind or get in foul trouble, it's going to snowball on you fast. Somebody is winning this puppy by double digits.
Posted on 1/19/21 at 12:18 pm to phil4bama
$$$ must be coming in on the tide. That line is moving Ala's way.
Posted on 1/19/21 at 12:19 pm to Chadaristic
quote:
quote:
Why it was obvious Alabama was great even when they started 4-3:
Based on the shots taken, Bama was expected to win every single game they lost (even the 18-point Stanford loss)
Some games shots may not fall, but all you can do is continue to take em until your luck turns!
quote:
Despite losing these three games, if you look at the "SQ Result" column it's obvious that the Bama was getting the right shots, they just didn't go fall in those games.
In those games they lost, they were supposed to win by:
^15 in Clemson gm
^8 in Stanford gm
^7 in WKU gm
quote:
And now, Alabama is on a 7 game win streak and tearing up the SEC!
It's obvious that teams that are getting unlucky, will get better and those that are getting lucky, welp, will get worse. If you want to read more on Record Luck, here's a link: Record Luck = (SQ Win Percentage - Actual Win Percentage) *100
quote:
This thread was inspired by the KING @kenpomeroy who told me yesterday to post more team-based tweets as a proof of concept that ShotQuality is predictive
LINK
I already told all of you something similar in December. Except that I had us losing to Stanford. But that's it using our predictive shooting compared to how we actually shot in the games through the Ole Miss game.
Here and Here.
This post was edited on 1/19/21 at 12:24 pm
Posted on 1/19/21 at 12:29 pm to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
Yep, Crede nailed it. It's math, and if you piece together enough of it and do enough of it well you get to a point where, to lose, you have to do MULTIPLE things poorly.
You aren't reliant on one or two things and your margins are not super slim (like when you play the game in the 50s). Can you still lose? Absolutely. Are the odds that you lose games against teams you are equal to or better than high? No, they aren't.
Find areas of the game where you can maximize your chances, fit your roster/game to be good at those, play the odds. That's basketball in the analytics age.
Also LSU is not some sort of exceptional defensive team. If we take care of the basketball we should get good shots and score.
They could, however, out rebound us and just outscore us. They are obviously pretty good.
Cam Thomas also seems like a bit of a wildcard. He could go 1-10 from 3 or 5-10. I haven't seen enough of him to know how much of his inefficient shooting is because of shot selection or just streakiness.
Edit: My guess is shot selection, since he's a 90% FT shooter. That usually means you're a pretty good shooter in general, but he's only 30% from 3 (on a ton of them).
This post was edited on 1/19/21 at 12:33 pm
Posted on 1/19/21 at 12:32 pm to DLev45
It seems almost unfathomable at this point that Alabama could score only 56 points in a game. (Clemson game)
Posted on 1/19/21 at 1:29 pm to DLev45
quote:
I already told all of you something similar in December. Except that I had us losing to Stanford. But that's it using our predictive shooting compared to how we actually shot in the games through the Ole Miss game.
Yep, you did
Posted on 1/19/21 at 1:36 pm to SummerOfGeorge
Posted on 1/19/21 at 2:11 pm to McGregor
I think we win tonight. They don’t want to play defense like us. We make our shots we win
Posted on 1/19/21 at 2:32 pm to Crede15
quote:
Cam Thomas also seems like a bit of a wildcard. He could go 1-10 from 3 or 5-10. I haven't seen enough of him to know how much of his inefficient shooting is because of shot selection or just streakiness.
He is a consistent scorer. He hasn't scored under 15 in a game yet this year. Has scored 25+ points in 7 out of their 11 games. He is the leading scorer in the SEC.
Watford is 3rd in the SEC in scoring.
We are probably gonna have to score a lot to win, I think we pull it out.
This post was edited on 1/19/21 at 3:01 pm
Posted on 1/19/21 at 2:43 pm to CrimsonFever
quote:
He is a consistent scorer. He hasn't scored under 15 in a game yet this year. He has scored over 20 in 8 out of their 11 games.
Has scored 25+ points in 7 out of their 11 games. He is the leading scorer in the SEC.
Watford is 3rd in the SEC in scoring.
We are probably gonna have to score a lot to win, I think we pull it out.
Yeah I know, but I'm talking about efficiency. Sometimes he's great, sometimes he gets those numbers by chucking it.
And shooting a lot of free throws - that's actually the one thing he's really consistent with. As usual, we need to try to avoid fouling too much, but specifically with him.
Posted on 1/19/21 at 2:44 pm to Crede15
True.
Posted on 1/19/21 at 2:59 pm to CrimsonFever
If the Refs let both teams play I think we will be Ok. If they are calling it tight, it may not be pretty for the good guys
This is directed at our bigs
This is directed at our bigs
This post was edited on 1/19/21 at 3:03 pm
Posted on 1/19/21 at 3:24 pm to Crede15
quote:
Obviously none of that means we’re guaranteed to win, but last year it just felt like we didn’t have much of a chance unless we shot the 3 ball super well. Because we couldn’t defend, we fouled a ton, and we weren’t especially good at getting to the rim.
It really is amazing to see how well they defend at the pace they are playing.
To put it more into perspective, Bama is 16th in the nation in defensive efficiency according to Kenpom. They are 14th in the nation in pace. The only team that does better than them in those two combined areas is Gonzaga at 13th in defensive efficiency and 7th in pace.
To really show how remarkable that is, there are 13 teams ahead of Bama in pace. Besides Gonzaga, the average rank of those teams in regards to defensive efficiency is 217.25th.
It is easy to play fast, it is not hard to score a high number of points while playing fast but it is very difficult to play a high pace while being elite defensively.
This post was edited on 1/19/21 at 3:26 pm
Posted on 1/19/21 at 3:36 pm to rockiee
quote:
The NCAA announced dates for its men’s basketball tournament this March. The tournament, which will be held entirely in the Indianapolis area due to COVID-19 protocols, is now slated to begin Thursday, March 18, instead of Tuesday, March 16. The Final Four will remain Saturday, April 3 and the national championship game will be held Monday, April 5.
The major adjustment to the schedule is a slightly delayed start compared to normal years, allowing for additional time following Selection Sunday for teams to arrive in Indianapolis and clear safety measures. The First Four, which in a normal year would be played on the Tuesday and Wednesday following Selection Sunday, will this year be held entirely on Thursday, March 18. Two First Four games will be held at Purdue’s Mackey Arena, while the other two will be played at Assembly Hall in Bloomington.
Pushing these games back moves the first round of the event to Friday, March 19 and Saturday, March 20, and the second round to March 21 and 22. Sweet 16 games will be played the following Saturday and Sunday, a two-day delay from the usual Thursday/Friday setup. Those games will be played at Bankers Life Fieldhouse and Hinkle Fieldhouse.
Elite Eight, Final Four, and national championship games will all be played at Lucas Oil Stadium. The Elite Eight games, which are are traditionally held on a weekend, will be contested on Monday, March 29 and Tuesday March 30.
LINK
Posted on 1/19/21 at 3:37 pm to rockiee
quote:
To really show how remarkable that is, there are 13 teams ahead of Bama in pace. Besides Gonzaga, the average rank of those teams in regards to defensive efficiency is 217.25th.
Hell of a stat.
Posted on 1/19/21 at 3:39 pm to Chadaristic
Snowden needs some credit for the conditioning program he put together so the guys are able to pull this off as well.
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