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The spread for Saturday.

Posted on 9/16/21 at 7:01 am
Posted by RFDAWG
Aiken SC
Member since Sep 2012
1957 posts
Posted on 9/16/21 at 7:01 am
They still have us -32.

Was looking at other games and the Clemson - Tech spread is only 28.

I'm surprised. Even though SC struggled with ECU, they didn't look as bad as Tech has.

Thoughts?
Posted by IT_Dawg
Georgia
Member since Oct 2012
21717 posts
Posted on 9/16/21 at 7:04 am to
We have a defense that could hold South Carolina to 0 points and under 150 total yards

Our offense clicked a little last week and we put up 50+, SC has one of the weakest defensive backfields in the SEC

35-0 or 42-10 seem perfectly reasonable and that’s just to hit the spread. Wouldn’t be surprised to see 49-0
Posted by dhuck20
SCLSU Fan
Member since Oct 2012
20294 posts
Posted on 9/16/21 at 7:34 am to
I think Kirby is 100% ok with taking what the defense gives him and not forcing it one way or the other. If we can run it for 5 yards a pop, we will do that and take shots every now and then. If they sell out vs. the run, we will take more shots and possibly gets big plays a la UAB.

With that in mind, I am not betting on UGA at all. Because it really depends on the S. Car coaching staff's deciding to die by the rock or hard place.
Posted by RealDawg
Dawgville
Member since Nov 2012
9362 posts
Posted on 9/16/21 at 8:37 am to
I wouldn’t touch that spread. UGA has to be one of the worst teams against spread. It could happen but like other poster said Kirby will take 5 yard runs and short passes if it’s what we get.
Posted by TrackDawg
Sugar Hill
Member since Sep 2013
966 posts
Posted on 9/16/21 at 8:48 am to
UGA is no where near the worst team against the spread. Since Kirby has been here UGA
2016 6-7
2017 11-4
2018 8-6
2019 8-6
2020 4-6
2021 2-0
Total 39-29 74%
Thats $
Posted by dhuck20
SCLSU Fan
Member since Oct 2012
20294 posts
Posted on 9/16/21 at 8:50 am to
That's actually surprising.

Thanks for sharing with the class.
Posted by fibonaccisquared
The mystical waters of the Hooch
Member since Dec 2011
16898 posts
Posted on 9/16/21 at 10:30 am to
quote:

2016 6-7
2017 11-4
2018 8-6
2019 8-6
2020 4-6
2021 2-0
Total 39-29 74%
Thats $


FWIW, that's one money season and a pretty even split otherwise really because we consistently outperformed expectations in 2017.

Remember the late season Auburn loss also took some shine off of the program leading to easier spreads against KY and Tech.

This year's season might be difficult to hammer the spread as hard as we did in 17 because basically between now and the end of the season we're going to be *heavily* favored in most matchups I believe. TBD on maybe the October games if Auburn beats Penn St and Ark/KY continue to win, they could decrease the differential with improved perception.

I think UGA is not a team I'd want to bet regularly against big spreads, just because we haven't shown a consistent identity of a high scoring team... that of course can and probably will change this year, but you may be counting on Carson Beck or another below 2nd string QB to get your late cover on a high spread or counting on the third string defense to not give up a late score and prevent a back door cover more than you'd like. Our starters vs everyone else's starters and running the offense for a whole game... I like our chances to cover more often than not, but I don't think we'll see that too much... Have to manage playing time around injury/health concerns over the season at this point with big goals.

When betting, you like to typically have a narrower "most likely outcomes" grouping, and I'm not sure with so many of the offensive question marks that I can reasonably expect Stetsplosions each week while we wait on JT, nor what JT will look like exactly once he's healthy.

Edit: Our defense is so damn good though, that if they consistently keep putting up Pick 6s or extreme positive field position advantages, it may nullify the offensive concerns. I just don't love counting on less controllable factors like that.
This post was edited on 9/16/21 at 10:32 am
Posted by WG_Dawg
Hoover
Member since Jun 2004
86434 posts
Posted on 9/16/21 at 12:23 pm to
On paper we could EASILY win by 32 but a big variable I'm curious abotu is kirby's relationship with shane beamer. Not saying he'll go easy but I mean it wouldn't shock me if we're up 3 TDs in teh second half
Posted by Jefferson Dawg
Member since Sep 2012
31961 posts
Posted on 9/16/21 at 3:15 pm to
quote:

On paper we could EASILY win by 32 but a big variable I'm curious abotu is kirby's relationship with shane beamer. Not saying he'll go easy


Beamer is just an aquaintance. He's not at "relationship" level like a Muschamp or Bobo that might bring about mercy.

Yesterday's press conference was telling. Beamer tried to complement Kirby this week and said that Kirby's 2021 team is probably the most talented team in UGA football history. When asked about it Sick Naban was not flattered and said something ice cold like "Yeah, and I'm sure he'll be saying that about whoever his opponent is next week."

Sick took that shite as an insult. Rightfully so. And now Carolina will pay.
Posted by Jefferson Dawg
Member since Sep 2012
31961 posts
Posted on 9/16/21 at 3:19 pm to
No former Sick Naban assistant has ever defeated him as a head coach.

None. Zero. Nada
Posted by Aguga
Southeast
Member since Aug 2021
2012 posts
Posted on 9/16/21 at 7:09 pm to
I don’t know why but “Sick Naban” makes me laugh.
Posted by BreezyDawg
Trembling Earth
Member since Dec 2016
3320 posts
Posted on 9/17/21 at 1:26 am to
quote:

t could happen but like other poster said Kirby will take 5 yard runs and short passes if it’s what we get.



I think in a game like this Kirby is willing to air it out a little more. Look at last week, we were up 35 points and he was airing it out. I think he is trying to emphasize not taking your foot off the gas this season.
Posted by meansonny
ATL
Member since Sep 2012
25520 posts
Posted on 9/17/21 at 5:48 am to
quote:

think in a game like this Kirby is willing to air it out a little more. Look at last week, we were up 35 points and he was airing it out. I think he is trying to emphasize not taking your foot off the gas this season.



It is more about what the defense gives us than "foot on the gas". UAB rotated to a ton of cover 1 with man underneath. Even when we were up big.

That is why we continued to take shots.
If it was cover 3 or cover 4 or tampa 2, we would have been much more conservative.
Posted by Jefferson Dawg
Member since Sep 2012
31961 posts
Posted on 9/17/21 at 9:12 am to
Greatest Nick Saban cover band in all the land. Plays all the greatest hits right down to the note.

(*Except for the offensive philosophy evolution song)
Posted by Jefferson Dawg
Member since Sep 2012
31961 posts
Posted on 9/17/21 at 9:17 am to
quote:

They still have us -32.

Since Carolina joined SEC, this game has never been decided by 32 points or more.

This will be the first time. Time to get rich as shite
Posted by deeprig9
Unincorporated Ozora, Georgia
Member since Sep 2012
63831 posts
Posted on 9/17/21 at 12:07 pm to
JD, can you go into the upside down and tell me who downvoted my Norm tribute?
Posted by Jefferson Dawg
Member since Sep 2012
31961 posts
Posted on 9/17/21 at 5:50 pm to
Sandwich
BrotherDawg
LuciousClay
&
PorterOsbourneJr
Posted by deeprig9
Unincorporated Ozora, Georgia
Member since Sep 2012
63831 posts
Posted on 9/17/21 at 5:58 pm to
Thanks. Making a note.
Posted by VADawg
Wherever
Member since Nov 2011
44681 posts
Posted on 9/17/21 at 6:14 pm to
quote:

Remember the late season Auburn loss also took some shine off of the program leading to easier spreads against KY and Tech.


Yet we were favored in the SECCG.

I think that point spread speaks to the Georgia defense. I would set the over/under for South Carolina points scored at 9.5.

IMO, if Georgia scores 40 points, they'll definitely have the spread covered. I think something like 38-6 is a realistic expectation.
Posted by VADawg
Wherever
Member since Nov 2011
44681 posts
Posted on 9/17/21 at 6:16 pm to
quote:

I think he is trying to emphasize not taking your foot off the gas this season


Every team in this damn state needs this mentality . I'd rather be accused of running up the score than be known for blowing leads.
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