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re: Lets Talk Politics
Posted on 2/2/16 at 8:32 am to Old Sarge
Posted on 2/2/16 at 8:32 am to Old Sarge
quote:
I think it was more that trump didn't participate in the last debate.
Maybe, but I wouldn't bet on it Sarge. What the debates provide more than anything is a personal brand boost for the candidates involved. Trump already had a very visible brand- I bet 80% of Americans know who he is and know he is running for president.
That is not to say Trump can't win the nomination. Bush dislikes Rubio, so he isn't going to fold his support in that direction if he can help it. All Trump has to do is RIGHT NOW go to party leaders hat-in-hand and say "I am willing to shut up and be a team player" and they might back him over Rubio.
The best thing Trump (and Rubio) has going for him is how much the RNC hates Cruz. I think they were rather see Clinton be elected honestly. So he just needs to own the role of the Cruz-killer and get the RNC behind him before Bush and other non-Rubio establishment candidates fold.
At a personal level I hope he does that. He is probably my favorite of the three.
This post was edited on 2/2/16 at 8:43 am
1
Posted on 2/2/16 at 8:48 am to Iosh
quote:
Rubio is a "moderate" on immigration and only immigration
Not true.
He voted to continue flood insurance subsidies, voted to increase budget in the Miller-Sanders deal, voted to extended the export-import bank, voted against warrants in order to obtain electronic communications, voted against reducing $ to the RDA.
Posted on 2/2/16 at 10:25 am to cardboardboxer
So, should I venture downstairs to the poliboard this morning?
I'm tempted
I'm tempted
Posted on 2/2/16 at 10:28 am to TbirdSpur2010
Trumpkins are rationalizing furiously
My hunch right now is that this will be a Rubio-Clinton joint and LE/IC will balk at being muzzled and leak enough to sink Clinton in the general
Not my ideal scenario since Rubio is str8 neocon but hopefully the Dems can take back the Senate and force some compromises
My hunch right now is that this will be a Rubio-Clinton joint and LE/IC will balk at being muzzled and leak enough to sink Clinton in the general
Not my ideal scenario since Rubio is str8 neocon but hopefully the Dems can take back the Senate and force some compromises
This post was edited on 2/2/16 at 10:29 am
Posted on 2/2/16 at 10:55 am to Iosh
quote:
Trumpkins are rationalizing furiously
This.
Posted on 2/2/16 at 11:25 am to Iosh
quote:
Trumpkins are rationalizing furiously
I'm on record on that board (as are other Trumpkins) saying Cruz would win Iowa.
Its a heavily evangelical state. There was a reason why people were saying before the caucus that if Trump won Iowa, it was over: because Iowa was stacked for Cruz.
Rubio didn't surge with Cruz/Trump voters as much as he consolidated the failed candidates' voters. Fiorina, Bush, Christie, Kasich, etc were all polling 3-5%. Most of them didn't even get more than 1% at the end. Those went to Rubio. Even with the support of all those last minute voters, Rubio couldn't top Trump in a heavily evangelical state. But Rubio supporters are going nuts over it like he won the nomination. We've got a long way to go.
It's definitely going to be Rubio/Trump down the GOP stretch, but we're a long way from that. This next debate is going to be interesting, to say the least. Trump takes NH, and Rubio will surge for the same reason he did in Iowa. South Carolina will be the test that sets the tone for the SEC primary, and after that I think we'll know.
Also, Clinton is still not a sure thing on the DNC side. She has a large enthusiasm gap; I'd say if they get to super Tuesday and she hasn't pulled away significantly, then Sanders has a good shot. But I'm not following that race as closely.
This post was edited on 2/2/16 at 11:27 am
Posted on 2/2/16 at 1:09 pm to cokebottleag
quote:
It's definitely going to be Rubio/Trump down the GOP stretch,
Cruz just burst Trump's biggest selling point: that he's a winner and the polls all favor him.
Cruz also did it campaigning against ethanol.
I don't think it's supportable to say that Rubio/Trump will "definitely" be the two men standing. As other protest candidates drop out, like Carson and Paul, I think their voters are much more likely to gravitate to Cruz than to Trump.
Posted on 2/2/16 at 1:14 pm to Mirthomatic
quote:
Cruz also did it campaigning against ethanol mandate.
FIFY
Posted on 2/2/16 at 1:15 pm to Mirthomatic
Just to be clear: he's not talking about the ethanol I drink, right?
Posted on 2/2/16 at 1:20 pm to Farmer1906
You are absolutely correct.
Posted on 2/2/16 at 1:22 pm to Mirthomatic
Also, this doesn't sound like a guy in it for the long haul:
quote:
Donald J. Trump ? @realDonaldTrump
I don't believe I have been given any credit by the voters for self-funding my campaign, the only one. I will keep doing, but not worth it!
10:39 AM - 2 Feb 2016
2,554 2,554 Retweets 8,277 8,277 likes
Posted on 2/2/16 at 1:28 pm to Mirthomatic
quote:
I don't believe I have been given any credit by the voters for self-funding my campaign, the only one. I will keep doing, but not worth it!
1. I wonder how much he is actually "self funding".
2. "not worth it" makes me sounds like if he hits bump in NH, SC, or NV then he's done.
Posted on 2/2/16 at 1:40 pm to Farmer1906
quote:
"not worth it" makes me sounds like if he hits bump in NH, SC, or NV then he's done.
and the country rejoices.
Posted on 2/2/16 at 2:21 pm to finestfirst79
Please go to loser.com
Posted on 2/3/16 at 5:09 am to Mirthomatic
Unless Republicans are able to inch into the coastal strongholds, it's going to be a repeat of 2014. Too many votes in the Northeast and West Coast to dismiss them.
Personally think Cruz is too divisive to really make it all the way. He's not going to carry more moderate states, and thus really has no chance on the national stage. The electoral college would push the Democratic candidate to victory. I suspect both Clinton and Sanders would secure the Northeast, and thus it's only California -- the crown jewel -- that would be left to push the Republican candidate over the hump. And even if Cruz/Rubio carried Florida, there would be less likelihood of a lone swing state in the Northeast to chip away at their numbers (as it was in 2000).
I suspect the election results would look fairly close to this:
Personally think Cruz is too divisive to really make it all the way. He's not going to carry more moderate states, and thus really has no chance on the national stage. The electoral college would push the Democratic candidate to victory. I suspect both Clinton and Sanders would secure the Northeast, and thus it's only California -- the crown jewel -- that would be left to push the Republican candidate over the hump. And even if Cruz/Rubio carried Florida, there would be less likelihood of a lone swing state in the Northeast to chip away at their numbers (as it was in 2000).
I suspect the election results would look fairly close to this:
Posted on 2/3/16 at 5:19 am to Mirthomatic
quote:
Cruz just burst Trump's biggest selling point: that he's a winner and the polls all favor him.
Cruz also did it campaigning against ethanol.
I don't think it's supportable to say that Rubio/Trump will "definitely" be the two men standing. As other protest candidates drop out, like Carson and Paul, I think their voters are much more likely to gravitate to Cruz than to Trump.
Great points.
However, I'm not sure how many Trump voters would swing to Cruz. They're so dynamically opposed in their stature. I personally think Rubio has a better chance of garnering the bulk of those votes.
And you can't discount the old guard in the Republican Party -- many who are still futilely pushing Jeb Bush -- who are unlikely to fall in with Cruz. Quite the opposite, to the point that I fully expect the GOP establishment to work against Cruz behind the scenes. It is no secret that Cruz has rankled a slew of Republican geezers, who still (despite their lack of prominence) have some pull.
Not to mention the general, current disdain for politicians from Florida and Texas. Times have changed since Reagan was able to carry the more liberal states, since voters on the coasts were able to identify him as one of their own. The reverse of which worked for Clinton in 1992.
From that standpoint, Trump might be able to secure some Northeast states -- which I don't think neither Rubio or Cruz would be able to do.
This is pretty much how I believe the old guard views Cruz:
Ted Cruz
This post was edited on 2/3/16 at 5:22 am
Posted on 2/3/16 at 6:43 am to CowTownReb
quote:
It is no secret that Cruz has rankled a slew of Republican geezers, who still (despite their lack of prominence) have some pull.
They do for sure which honestly might be one of the best traits of Cruz for a lot of people who are sick of establishment politicians.
I think Cruz is the only politician running who can actually deliver what he promises. The government wouldn't grow under President Cruz because everyone in Washington would be so pissed he got elected that it would be 100% legislative grid lock for four years. If you are a libertarian then that probably sounds really appealing. It is the Ron Paul promise basically.
I just don't think the RNC will willingly sign up for that. No career politician likes the idea of inaction in DC because eventually people will wonder why we even elect politicians if they aren't going to do anything. It is bigger than politics, it is self preservation of the party itself. Someone like Dole is a Republican first and a conservative second.
Posted on 2/3/16 at 9:31 am to Farmer1906
Don't know why I posted in the crootin thread by mistake but: Rand's out early (probably because he got a credible challenger for his Senate seat) so I now have nothing but spectator interest in the R primary
Definitely voting lolbertarian in the general, might vote against HRC in the Dem primary
Definitely voting lolbertarian in the general, might vote against HRC in the Dem primary
This post was edited on 2/3/16 at 9:32 am
Posted on 2/3/16 at 9:40 am to Iosh
I hope/expect Rand's following jumps on with Cruz. I was truly undecided early on between Rand & Teddy. Both would make excellent presidents. Easily the best best since RR.
Posted on 2/3/16 at 11:25 am to Mirthomatic
quote:
Cruz just burst Trump's biggest selling point: that he's a winner and the polls all favor him.
Cruz also did it campaigning against ethanol.
I don't think it's supportable to say that Rubio/Trump will "definitely" be the two men standing. As other protest candidates drop out, like Carson and Paul, I think their voters are much more likely to gravitate to Cruz than to Trump.
You are welcome to your opinion, but its wrong.
One big takeaway from Iowa is that Cruz won by getting almost only the 'very conservative' vote, per exit polls. Rubio and Trump split the 'somewhat conservative' and 'moderate' groups, with Trump doing ok in the 'very conservative' segment as well.
This is why people say Cruz has no path to the nomination: If there isn't a huge turnout with very conservative voters or evangelicals (and low turnout for the others), he can't win. Iowa picked Santorum and Huckabee as well, who both appealed to the evangelical vote. Then they cratered soon after.
Another thing to note: Cruz spent almost 100% of the last 2 months in Iowa, and almost all of his funding there. Rubio has spent almost all his time and money in the state as well. Trump spent significantly less time in the state, and had a skeleton crew of organization in comparison to Cruz.
With all those factors, Rubio still came in third by eating up the other GOPe votes and Cruz only won by 4%. Cruz is skipping NH and going directly to SC, where he will spend the majority of the rest of his time (and FL). Rubio is moving to NH, where the pundits are saying he will surge.
Rubio has a problem though: His surge in Iowa can be attributed to Kasich/Bush/Fiorina/Christie basically ignoring that state. His surge was in effect at their expense. Now he has to compete with them in NH where they have all been spending their money and time for the past month. It will be a victory for him if he can get past 20% at all.
So Trump still wins NH by a large margin, then they all go down to SC.
SC is going to be Rubio's last stand; if he can't win SC, he is probably done. Likewise for Cruz. Polling for SC is old, so its pretty useless at this point, but that is going to be the end of the road for most of the candidates. Remember Gingirch won SC 4 years ago; his personal life and appeal was similar to Trump's, and SC isn't as chock full of evangelicals as Cruz needs it to be.
Nevada is going to Trump.
Then we have the SEC primary.
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