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FLObserver
LSU Fan
Jacksonville
Member since Nov 2005
7400 posts

Recruiting rankings and college Teams success
Here is the Ap Poll and here is the recruiting rankings so far . I'll its not the end all and there are some players that are lowered ranked that turn out really good but as far as team rankings it has followed the polls the last few years.Not many teams making the playoff that arent ranked high in recruiting the last 5 years.I know this is current polls dealing with 2020 recruiting but just goes to show recruits flock to highly ranked teams.
Image: https://i.postimg.cc/V6fkYQpY/rankings.jpg


RebelTheBear
Ole Miss Fan
Saban's spare bedroom
Member since Aug 2016
2367 posts
 Online 

re: Recruiting rankings and college Teams success
Talent wins games. Coaching obviously helps, but even the best coach can't win a championship with a bad team.


fibonaccisquared
Georgia Fan
The mystical waters of the Hooch
Member since Dec 2011
15350 posts

re: Recruiting rankings and college Teams success
The point still stands but you're using future recruiting rankings to prove current AP rankings correlation... Gotta look at last several years instead... Or just use 247 team talent composite...


IStillMissDanny
Col. of Charleston Fan
S TX
Member since Aug 2016
2142 posts

re: Recruiting rankings and college Teams success
He's showing an illustration of success on the field breeds success in recruiting.
All of those teams are winning big and highly ranked, and kids want to be a part of winning programs.
Shows how tough it is for a school to make that break into this level, as you generally need one to have the other.


fibonaccisquared
Georgia Fan
The mystical waters of the Hooch
Member since Dec 2011
15350 posts

re: Recruiting rankings and college Teams success
The problem with that is that those teams were generally ranked about in that spot before the games were played this season... Their 2019 rankings had nothing to do with the 2020 commitments they have currently...

It's just some misplaced correlation... It exists, but the visuals chosen don't really support the claim very well.


Todd Fagan
Member since Jan 2019
225 posts

re: Recruiting rankings and college Teams success
It helps, but you need coaching. Looking at the team composite, FSU has the SIXTH most talented roster, NOT playing like it


NashvilleTiger09
LSU Fan
Nashville
Member since Jul 2014
686 posts
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re: Recruiting rankings and college Teams success
We always had high classes with Les... unfortunately they were mostly skill positions. Give me a 4 and 5 star OL/DL and 3 star skill positions all day.


TidalSurge1
Alabama Fan
Ft Walton Beach
Member since Sep 2016
22011 posts

re: Recruiting rankings and college Teams success
quote:

Not many teams making the playoff that arent ranked high in recruiting the last 5 years (1st point). I know this is current polls dealing with 2020 recruiting but just goes to show recruits flock to highly ranked teams (2nd point).

The illustrations in your post relate more to your 2nd point -- that generally speaking, top recruits want to play at top programs with very talented teammates. And the following relates more to your 1st point:

2019 College Football Team Talent Composite
This post was edited on 9/12 at 4:31 pm


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CP3LSU25
LSU Fan
Louisiana
Member since Feb 2009
41918 posts

re: Recruiting rankings and college Teams success
quote:

We always had high classes with Les... unfortunately they were mostly skill positions. Give me a 4 and 5 star OL/DL and 3 star skill positions all day.



this we were blinded when we were starting losing in the trenches.


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armtackledawg
Georgia Fan
Member since Aug 2017
4277 posts
 Online 

re: Recruiting rankings and college Teams success
Stars don't matter. Those ranking sites just play to the teams with the most subscribers. Look at all the 5 star busts. Look at all the 3 star NFL players.

etc. etc. etc.


Miznoz
Missouri Fan
St. Louis
Member since Dec 2018
388 posts

re: Recruiting rankings and college Teams success
I really think it only goes as far as the 5 stars though, and there's only so many of those. Beyond that recruiting rankings are a crapshoot, but anyone who watches football can pick out a five star.


armtackledawg
Georgia Fan
Member since Aug 2017
4277 posts
 Online 

re: Recruiting rankings and college Teams success
quote:

I really think it only goes as far as the 5 stars though


If this were true, Bama would sign 5-6 5 stars per year and then an equal mix of 4, 3, 2 stars. There is reason that the ranking sites and the best teams all seem to agree on who the best players are.


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djsdawg
Georgia Fan
Member since Apr 2015
17246 posts
 Online 

re: Recruiting rankings and college Teams success
quote:

Stars don't matter.


Evidence claims otherwise


fibonaccisquared
Georgia Fan
The mystical waters of the Hooch
Member since Dec 2011
15350 posts

re: Recruiting rankings and college Teams success
quote:

Look at all the 5 star busts. Look at all the 3 star NFL players.

math is super hard...

Look at the PERCENTAGE of 5, 4, and 3 stars that make it to the NFL and get back to me.

Seems totally reasonable to compare an annual subgroup of 30ish to one that's significantly larger...
Roughly 300 kids are 4 star (10x) and more than 1000 kids end up ranked 3 star (I stopped counting... But thats over 30x)...

Edit to add: Also worth noting that the cutoff between 4 and 5 star while rigid in practice is not really a huge delineation between the 32nd and 33rd ranked kid. There's a strong correlation to recruits ranked in the top 50/100/150/etc... There's been enough articles on it at this point that if you don't believe it, I'd likely assume you are equally likely to believe in flat Earth logic.
This post was edited on 9/10 at 10:40 pm


Dawgsontop34
Georgia Fan
Member since Jun 2014
29831 posts

re: Recruiting rankings and college Teams success
quote:

fibonaccisquared


I thought armtackle was being facetious.


koreandawg
Georgia Fan
South Korea
Member since Sep 2015
2318 posts

re: Recruiting rankings and college Teams success
It helps but it's not the end all. Kirby had us at no. 3 in recruiting when we were 8-5. Florida had a great rebound year last year and haven't taken advantage of it in recruiting.


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fibonaccisquared
Georgia Fan
The mystical waters of the Hooch
Member since Dec 2011
15350 posts

re: Recruiting rankings and college Teams success
If so, I clearly missed it..


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surgicalvenom
Missouri Fan
Omaha
Member since Jan 2014
3241 posts

re: Recruiting rankings and college Teams success
The top ranked, blue chip kids do make a difference when the program also has blue chip recruits for depth.

Using the NFL isn't an accurate measure, as being drafted is an individual honor and doesn't necessarily add up to wins for the team.

The key is recruiting the 5 stars and developing like they are 3 stars. Some coaches are recruiters, some are developers, and the elite do both.


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420 in Dallas
TCU Fan
Member since Sep 2019
14 posts

re: Recruiting rankings and college Teams success
Recruiting and evaluation used to be based on playing football with your team during football season, now it's all elite 11, camps, 7 on 7 etc. I'm very sorry for picking on this good kid again, but QB King had 3tds 5 ints half way through his season.

How is that 5 star?


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11
tattoo
Harvard Fan
Fantasy Island
Member since Oct 2017
1030 posts

re: Recruiting rankings and college Teams success
There are a lot of reasons for the relationship between recruiting rankings and on field play.

Another is that the "analysts" trust the higher ranked coaches' evaluations more. In some cases like Saban, who is a great evaluator, it is reasonable in other cases no.

Related to the above, the Alabama/OSU/etc. bumps have validity.

Look at the history of many of the rankings and see how erratic (sometimes dropping or rising 100s of points and back) many are and most may not be erratic but still change significantly.

But overall higher ranked classes usually result in better teams on the field but there are exceptions where good teams were not that highly ranked - except for the top 4 or 5.


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