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re: 5 star PG Ashton Hagans decommits from UGA
Posted on 4/11/18 at 12:39 am to GatorsGators
Posted on 4/11/18 at 12:39 am to GatorsGators
quote:
it's not nearly as clear-cut as you think
Even still, it really is if Harper/Doughty are tougher competition to beat out than Green/Quickley and the answer is yes
Best case scenario with Harper is to share significant minutes with him.
Best case at UK is to be the dominate starting PG
Also, AU would likely play Hagan's at both PG/SG to ensure the most talent is on the floor. Thatisn't ideal for a PG trying to make the NBA
quote:
Hagans is better than Harper imo
At this point in time, I definitely disagree. Hagans obviously has a much higher ceiling, but he isn't a great shooter and has been TO prone
I don't see him consistent enough to play the entire year at clear cut 1st Team All SEC levels
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Posted on 4/11/18 at 1:52 am to GenesChin
I'm not arguing that UK doesn't offer Hagans a clearer path to minutes and I'm not really sure why the argument matters beyond Bowl doing his usual trolling. But if Auburn did get Hagans Doughty would probably play exclusively off-the-ball and Auburn would definitely run a bunch of three-guard sets with Harper, Hagans, and Brown on the court at the same time with Harper off-the-ball on offense but defending the other team's smallest guard.
And I don't think Harper was a 1st-team All-SEC performer last year and wouldn't pick him for a 1st-team All-SEC preseason list either so not sure why that's a point
And I don't think Harper was a 1st-team All-SEC performer last year and wouldn't pick him for a 1st-team All-SEC preseason list either so not sure why that's a point
Posted on 4/11/18 at 8:19 am to GenesChin
Hagans even reclassifying to the 2018 class is still the 2cd best PG in the class...some analysts even say he pushes Tre Jones for the top spot. You are delusional to think a player like Hagans would not push for the starting spot on any team...especially if he went to Auburn. The kid is a bulldog (no
Pun UGA fans) and will make noise next season.
Pun UGA fans) and will make noise next season.
Posted on 4/11/18 at 8:19 am to GatorsGators
quote:
Harper off-the-ball
You clearly don't watch a lot of SEC or AU basketball with a statement like this. Harper would not be a good off ball option.
In general though, it makes zero sense to put the best ball distributor and facilitator on the court off ball
quote:
And I don't think Harper was a 1st-team All-SEC performer last year and wouldn't pick him for a 1st-team All-SEC preseason list either so not sure why that's a point
No idea why UF fans in particular are always down on Harper. Not sure if it is some reflex to try and defend Chiozza. Just weird AF
Harper had a higher off efficiency than all the 1st team guards, neck and neck w Chiozza for Assist:TO lead + assist rate and he was not a liability on defense
This post was edited on 4/11/18 at 8:21 am
Posted on 4/11/18 at 8:34 am to GenesChin
quote:
Harper had a higher off efficiency than all the 1st team guards, neck and neck w Chiozza for Assist:TO lead + assist rate and he was not a liability on defense
Chiozza was a much better defensive player than Harper.
Harper had a negative defensive box+- of -0.4, Chiozza had a DBPM of +3.4. Harper's total BPM was only +5.2 while Chiozza's was +8.4.
Even Waters had a DBPM of +0.6 and total BPM of +6.5. So both Waters and Chiozza had higher BPM over the whole season. Both also had slightly better PER.
Harper is a good player but he wasn't really any better than those 2. There's not a lot really separating the 3 for that matter.
This post was edited on 4/11/18 at 8:37 am
Posted on 4/11/18 at 11:25 am to thunderbird1100
quote:
Chiozza was a much better defensive player than Harper.
No argument here. I think Harper was correctly placed on the 2nd team but he was definitely in contention/ballpark (Macon is the one who got unfairly Fugged tbh)
The idea that no 1st Guards are returning but Harper shouldn't be preaseason 1st team is stupid AF
quote:
Harper had a negative defensive box+-
First, I'll start out by saying I work in statistics. This is my field and you are using it like a toddler with a Colt 45
If you are using box +/- for the college game you can't be take seriously. Box +/- isn't designed for the college game and the notes even acknowledges that it does poorly
That's before you get into how trash defensive box +/-. They fricking back into it
You're the same moron who said Bryce Brown was AUs worst defender and a bad defender overall right. That alone is proof of how trash this metric is
This post was edited on 4/11/18 at 11:35 am
Posted on 4/11/18 at 11:47 am to beaver
offseason basketball threads get heated 
Posted on 4/11/18 at 12:05 pm to rockiee
quote:
offseason basketball threads get heated
I will say, Thunderbird's weird use of box +/- really puzzles me. It's weird to consistently use one of obscure, lesser known metrics.....
Especially when it was designed for the NBA not NCAA and has some acknowledged major flaws
Posted on 4/11/18 at 12:13 pm to GenesChin
I'm just glad there is some talk. Hard to find any this time of the year, which is understandable tbh
Posted on 4/11/18 at 12:21 pm to GenesChin
Quantifying defensive play is ridiculously hard, but it's better to use than say defensive rating when comparing beyond your own teammates. Brown never struck me as some great on ball defender, a vocal leader perhaps, but a guy who can shut down someone else? Not really at all.
When McLemore went down the defense as a whole just nosedived. He was by far the glue to that defense.
When McLemore went down the defense as a whole just nosedived. He was by far the glue to that defense.
This post was edited on 4/11/18 at 12:23 pm
Posted on 4/11/18 at 12:50 pm to thunderbird1100
quote:
Quantifying defensive play is ridiculously hard
Exactly, that's why most respected places like KenPom don't provide defensive efficiency ratings
quote:
but it's better to use than say defensive rating
It absolutely is not better than defensive rating and the fact that you'd even make this statement is just absurd.
Yes there are major flaws in defensive rating, but taking a NBA metric, with NBA specific coefficients unadjusted for college play and then backing into defensive ratings based on offensive coefficients is in no way better
quote:
Brown never struck me as some great on ball defender
Brown easily was one of the better defenders and enters the conversation of best on ball defenders in the SEC. Only someone who has never seen him play would suggest otherwise
Just look through the game logs, a ton of top opposing guards played well below their season averages in efficiency and production vs AU. The correlation is pretty high with Brown being the primary defender
This post was edited on 4/11/18 at 1:11 pm
Posted on 4/11/18 at 5:06 pm to GenesChin
quote:Chill dude, I watched plenty of SEC and AU basketball
You clearly don't watch a lot of SEC or AU basketball with a statement like this. Harper would not be a good off ball option.
Harper would be a very good off-the-ball offensive option. Might get him more open looks from three. That's also not to say he's a bad on-the-ball option. Guards who can play both spots are valuable. Harper would be a better fit to play off-the-ball than Hagans would, which is why it would work.
quote:I'm not that down on Harper but I'd definitely put Waters on preseason 1st team over him so whether or not he's first team is dependent on how big the team is. He's the second best returning PG imo although if Peters ever puts it together consistently he's up there, too
No idea why UF fans in particular are always down on Harper. Not sure if it is some reflex to try and defend Chiozza. Just weird AF
Don't know why you're getting offended.
This post was edited on 4/11/18 at 5:07 pm
Posted on 4/11/18 at 5:28 pm to GatorsGators
quote:
Harper would be a very good off-the-ball offensive option. Might get him more open looks from three.
If you'd watch a lot of AU, you'd know that Harper is from the Brett Farve "harder the play, higher success rate" school of 3FG shooting
Wide open 3FG on a catch and shoot? Harper will put up more bricks than a SEC campus. Contested 3FG off a screen or rhythm pull up shot form the half court logo? Works 60% of the time, every time
The consistent trend though is that Harper is not a good catch and shoot option
quote:
I'm not that down on Harper but I'd definitely put Waters on preseason 1st team over him
Waters' usage will likely make him a more appealing conf team candidate than Harper. I still expect Harper to have a more efficient and consistent year though
quote:
if Peters ever puts it together
I am extremely high on MSU's ceiling, wouldn't shock me if they win the league.
Given that Howland is their coach and he is the pinnacle of inconsistency, wouldn't shock me to see them NIT bound once again too
This post was edited on 4/11/18 at 5:29 pm
Posted on 4/11/18 at 5:33 pm to GatorsGators
quote:
I'm not that down on Harper but I'd definitely put Waters on preseason 1st team over him
Agreed
Posted on 4/11/18 at 5:40 pm to GenesChin
quote:I'm sure most of that is mental and given enough minutes off-the-ball he'd acclimate
If you'd watch a lot of AU, you'd know that Harper is from the Brett Farve "harder the play, higher success rate" school of 3FG shooting
Wide open 3FG on a catch and shoot? Harper will put up more bricks than a SEC campus. Contested 3FG off a screen or rhythm pull up shot form the half court logo? Works 60% of the time, every time
The consistent trend though is that Harper is not a good catch and shoot option
quote:Waters was already a bit more efficient than Harper last season (exact same TS%, much higher eFG%, better PER), on much higher usage, and I'd expect Waters' USG to drop a bit next year with their added weapons
Waters' usage will likely make him a more appealing conf team candidate than Harper. I still expect Harper to have a more efficient and consistent year though
quote:I don't disagree although it shouldn't be tough for them to just make the tourney if their schedule isn't horseshite again. Peters probably has the highest upside of any returning PG in the SEC but he needs to stay focused for sure. Starks from A&M is another similar case.
I am extremely high on MSU's ceiling, wouldn't shock me if they win the league.
Given that Howland is their coach and he is the pinnacle of inconsistency, wouldn't shock me to see them NIT bound once again too
Posted on 4/11/18 at 7:20 pm to GatorsGators
quote:
I'm sure most of that is mental and given enough minutes off-the-ball he'd acclimate
Maybe, but he'd have to make up a ton of ground
quote:
Waters was already a bit more efficient than Harper last season (exact same TS%, much higher eFG%, better PER),
First, PER is an NBA origin per minute metric that is not a great season long statistic due to variations in unique CBB opponent quality fluctuations from OOC / scheduling differences plus the lack of parity in CBB vs NBA. I've yet to see any PER calculation that adequately adjusts PER for the college game.... as in no one has even tried
In similar competition conference play though PER
- Harper 20.6 vs Waters 17.6
quote:
on much higher usage
As I said, PER is a per minute efficiency and not a usage efficiency metric. PER is actually designed to reward higher usage players most of the time. There are rare occasions this doesn't hold true, but it's more or less rewarding for players playing at league avg or better
Metrics like KenPom ORating on the other hand are not meant to compare unless a usage adjustment is made
Also, PER does a very poor job of capturing defensive ability (as in it doesn't and Hollinger admits this) of which I'd argue Harper, while not great, is better than Waters
Harper in similar competition conference play was significantly better than Waters though
Win Shares per 40 : JH 2.6 vs TW 1.5
KenPom ORtg: JH 118.4 vs TW 102.0 (Season 116 vs 110.7)
- TS% - JH 57.8% vs TW 49.8%
- efG% - JH 45.9% vs TW 44.1%
- AST% - JH 33.4% vs TW 32.4%
- TOV% - JH 15.1% vs TW 15.3%
This post was edited on 4/11/18 at 7:49 pm
Posted on 4/12/18 at 8:10 am to GenesChin
quote:
Wide open 3FG on a catch and shoot? Harper will put up more bricks than a SEC campus. Contested 3FG off a screen or rhythm pull up shot form the half court logo? Works 60% of the time, every time
It really is strange, but this is spot on
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