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re: Why do you think all of a sudden your team with 3 losses will make it to the playoffs?
Posted on 7/7/24 at 5:18 pm to UGADawg1988
Posted on 7/7/24 at 5:18 pm to UGADawg1988
Looking at the commttees rankings in the 2015 and 2016 seasons only one SEC team would have made the 12 team playoff from the SEC those years under the new rules and that was the SEC Champions Alabama. And that was with the easier schedules back then.
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Posted on 7/7/24 at 5:20 pm to theballguy
I think it's dumb as shite.
Posted on 7/7/24 at 5:29 pm to 49 to nada
I agree but that’s what I thought was the set up
This post was edited on 7/7/24 at 5:30 pm
Posted on 7/7/24 at 5:42 pm to theballguy
I think LSU is an outlier with UCLA and USC on its schedule plus the SEC gauntlet. Just depends on how the season plays out for other contenders.
Posted on 7/7/24 at 8:29 pm to Jack Daniel
Saban has left. It’s my opinion now. I see at most 3 Sec teams getting in. There will not be 4 or more.
Posted on 7/7/24 at 9:24 pm to theballguy
quote:
Saban has left. It’s my opinion now. I see at most 3 Sec teams getting in. There will not be 4 or more.
Nearly every year will have 3 or 4 teams from the SEC. 2 is almost impossible unless the SEC teams lose a ton of OOC games. It's just a math problem.
The ACC and Big 12 don't have a lot of big name teams. They're not going to have a bunch of top 10 teams. In their best years, they'll get 2 teams in the playoff each. there will be one other conference champ from outside the top 4 conferences each year as well.
So in the best case there will be 5 spots taken.
That leaves 7 spots for the SEC, Big 10 and ND... in a bad year for those teams. So even in those years it will likely be 3-4 split between the two or 3-3-1 with ND grabbing a spot.
With the SEC teams having 8 conference games compared to 9 for the Big 10, the SEC will be on the side of getting 4 compared to 3 for the Big 10 more often than not, simply because of math.
It's actually possible for Ole Miss, Alabama and Texas to ALL go undefeated in conference this season for the SEC. If UGA goes undefeated it's possible that Bama, Ole Miss and Texas all finish with 1 loss, LSU, Tennessee, Mizzou. and A&M to have 2 conference loss seasons.
That's a season where if they win their OOC games, EIGHT SEC teams would finish with 10+ wins. Most of them would end up in the playoff (though likely not all).
UGA - no conference losses
Bama - loses only to UGA.
Texas - loses only to UGA.
Ole Miss - loses only to UGA.
Tennessee - loses to Bama and UGA
LSU - loses to Ole Miss and Bama
A&M - loses to TExas and LSU
Mizzou - loses to A&M and Bama
Is that likely to happen? No. but it wouldn't be shocking if it did. Heck, Texas, Bama and Ole Miss could all lose to OU (dropping them down to 2 losses) and OU could finish 9-3 (and replace LSU, Mizzou or Tennessee if they also beat one of those teams to go with the others).
The reality is the SEC schedule makes 4 teams in the playoff the expectation. 3 would be a slight underperformance and 2 would be nearly impossible.
This post was edited on 7/7/24 at 9:25 pm
Posted on 7/7/24 at 9:27 pm to tigerbait2010
quote:
I think LSU is an outlier with UCLA and USC on its schedule plus the SEC gauntlet. Just depends on how the season plays out for other contenders.
More than likely if LSU is good enough to win 2 out of the 4 conference games of Bama, OU, A&M and Ole Miss, they'll likely beat USC and UCLA pretty soundly and finish 10-2. If they only go 1-3 or 0-4 in those games, they could pick up another loss OOC..
Posted on 7/7/24 at 9:30 pm to DawginSC
See 2015 and 2016 with balance below Bama. Situations like that will happen with OK and TX added especially. I think it's true that it will be hard to get 4 teams in most years unless there is a shortage of 10-2 or better teams in the ACC and Big 12.
Posted on 7/7/24 at 9:35 pm to Gator Fever
quote:
See 2015 and 2016 with balance below Bama. Situations like that will happen with OK and TX added especially. I think it's true that it will be hard to get 4 teams in most years unless there is a shortage of 10-2 or better teams in the ACC and Big 12.
I guess my main disagreement is that with an 8 game conference schedule, there will be few seasons where the SEC doesn't produce at least 4 teams at 10-2 or better.
And 10-2 SEC teams will be ahead of 10-2 ACC and Big 12 teams the vast majority of the time.
I think the SEC ends up with 5 10-2 or better teams this season for example. I'd be absolutely shocked if it were 3 or less.
The main difference is by adding OU and Texas but not increasing the number of conference games, it makes it more likely that top teams aren't scheduled each year against other top teams.
Let's say we consider UGA, Bama, LSU, Tennessee, OU, Texas and Ole Miss as the top teams in the SEC this year. 7 teams.
OU plays 5 of those teams. UGA plays 4 of them. Bama plays 4. LSU plays 3. Tennessee plays 3. Ole Miss plays 3. Texas plays 2.
That means that if they win their other games, 6 of those 7 "top" teams this year can afford to go .500 or worse against the other top teams and still finish with 10 wins.
If you add A&M as a top team, Texas goes to 3 games, LSU goes to 4 and A&M only plays 2 of the other top teams.
Of course OOC losses can happen, but the reality is that with 8 conference games it's going to be very rare to end up with less than 4 teams with 2 or more conference losses.
And if one of them does struggle... let's say OU loses all of their games against top opponents... that just makes it easier for the other teams. Texas is likely a lock with a win over OU. Ole Miss can lose to UGA and LSU and still finish 10-2 with a win over OU. Alabama can lose to LSU and UGA and if they beat Tennessee to go with a win over OU, they'll likely finish at 10-2. Tennessee can lose to Bama and UGA and still get to 10 wins if they beat OU (their next toughest opponent would be UK, UF or Arkansas).
Having 2-3 great teams go undefeated and the rest cannibalize each other is the "best" way for the SEC to only have 3 teams in the playoff. But there are few enough matchups between top contenders to really make that likely. It's going to require unexpected OOC losses or lots of upsets from the bottom of the SEC rather than the middle.
This post was edited on 7/7/24 at 9:54 pm
Posted on 7/7/24 at 10:31 pm to DawgsLife
Where does Notre Dame fit?
Posted on 7/8/24 at 12:56 am to DawginSC
Not sure it's going to work out that way. I think even some of the computer simulations say 3 losses would be similar to 2 losses before. Need to look at it but I am curious how many teams project 10 or more wins regular season with the FPI in the SEC. I doubt even four project 10 or more wins.
This post was edited on 7/8/24 at 12:57 am
Posted on 7/8/24 at 8:37 am to theballguy
SOS lose 3 but whip 3 u r in consideration
This post was edited on 7/8/24 at 8:38 am
Posted on 7/8/24 at 9:28 am to theballguy
3 loss teams outside of an upset in a conf championship will not get in.
The SEC and Big 10 will get each get 3 every year.
The ACC AND B12 will each get 2 most years.
1 G5 champ; however don’t put it past 2.. highly doubtful but an undefeated Tulane and Boise st, both could be in the top 10 and get a champ and at large, more than likely they would knock out a B12 or ACC team #2.
A 1 loss ND is a lock.
Based on the revenue split and how the confs don’t have divs anymore; and the importance of the conf championship games..
The 2 teams in each of the P4 conf champ games are locks if they have 1-2 losses. If they start having conf champ #2s getting eliminated for teams that didn’t have to play; there would be no reason for the CCGs.
Based on preseason predictions..
SEC- UGA, Texas, Bama
B10- OSU, Oregon, Michigan
ACC- FSU, Clemson
B12- Utah, Ok St
G5- Boise St
Final spot- ND, OM, PSU
The SEC and Big 10 will get each get 3 every year.
The ACC AND B12 will each get 2 most years.
1 G5 champ; however don’t put it past 2.. highly doubtful but an undefeated Tulane and Boise st, both could be in the top 10 and get a champ and at large, more than likely they would knock out a B12 or ACC team #2.
A 1 loss ND is a lock.
Based on the revenue split and how the confs don’t have divs anymore; and the importance of the conf championship games..
The 2 teams in each of the P4 conf champ games are locks if they have 1-2 losses. If they start having conf champ #2s getting eliminated for teams that didn’t have to play; there would be no reason for the CCGs.
Based on preseason predictions..
SEC- UGA, Texas, Bama
B10- OSU, Oregon, Michigan
ACC- FSU, Clemson
B12- Utah, Ok St
G5- Boise St
Final spot- ND, OM, PSU
Posted on 7/8/24 at 9:53 am to theballguy
So Bammer "IS" not gonna be one of the two............then you'd scream for 3 wouldn't you......................
Posted on 7/8/24 at 12:08 pm to Gator Fever
quote:
Need to look at it but I am curious how many teams project 10 or more wins regular season with the FPI in the SEC.
Because the FPI gives teams "portions" of wins rather than giving a team either a win or a loss in each game, it averages out lower that other win projections.
But here are the top 10 teams in projected win totals according to the FPI
1 - Oregon - 10.8
2 - UGA - 10.3
3 - OSU - 10.2
4 - PSU - 10.1
5 - ND - 10.1
6 - Texas - 10.0
7 - Bama - 9.3
8 - Mizzou - 9.0
9 - FSU - 8.8
10 - Kansas - 8.7
That's 4 SEC teams, 3 Big 10 teams, 1 Big 12, 1 ACC and ND.
After than comes Liberty and UTSA, but in reality only one conference champ outside the big 4 would get in.
Then comes Tennessee.
So of the top 11 win total projections for the FPI from major conference schools, 5 of them are SEC teams.
Posted on 7/8/24 at 12:16 pm to 3rddownonthe8
quote:
The ACC AND B12 will each get 2 most years
I'm not sure about this.
I think they'll be fairly evenly split between years they'd get one and years they'd get two. Last year, even with OU and Texas in the big 12 and the Pac 12 still existing, the 2nd best Big 12 team was 12th (outside of the playoff as the 12th spot would instead go to a non major conference champion) and the second best ACC team was 15th.
Posted on 7/8/24 at 12:42 pm to theballguy
DEPENDS..lose 3 biggies but whip 3 biggies..you could be in the mix..depends
Posted on 7/8/24 at 12:49 pm to Dawgfanman
What record did those teams have after the final regular season games?
Last I looked they won't wait until all the bowl games are played to chose the 12 teams for the playoffs.
Last I looked they won't wait until all the bowl games are played to chose the 12 teams for the playoffs.
Posted on 7/8/24 at 12:59 pm to theballguy
Going to need to wait and see how it shakes out over a few years. I bet teams start getting a bit more forgiveness if a QB is out for a tough game.
Coaches are going to be a lot more hesitant to bring a QB or other major player back early if they know they may get a bit of a mulligan.
Coaches are going to be a lot more hesitant to bring a QB or other major player back early if they know they may get a bit of a mulligan.
Posted on 7/8/24 at 3:27 pm to java_UT
quote:
Where does Notre Dame fit?
What I was reading is they could not get a top 4 bye, because they do not play a conference champonship game. So, the highest seed they can get is #5.
I suspect they might start looking at a conference to join, and most people think if they do, it would be B1G. But, they are a brand that thinks they can stand alone, and they like to be able to negotiate their own TV Contracts, not share bowl money, etc....so they might just decide to swallow the bitter pill and know they will never get a first round bye.
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