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Posted on 5/6/20 at 1:14 pm to 3down10
quote:
What do they do anytime someone gets sick? They should do the same thing.
You think that’s gonna be the directive from public health officials, the CDC, etc? Schools are not gonna go against whatever directives those agencies set forth.
Posted on 5/6/20 at 1:17 pm to Dolphin
I could see it maybe starting late, but at this point, would be shocked if the season didn't happen. Quite frankly, schools cannot afford not to have football. Their entire yearly budget depends on football. If football doesn't happen, schools will fall into tens of millions of dollars into dept and would crush a lot of athletic departments permanently. They may play without fans or limited fans, but they will play.
Posted on 5/6/20 at 1:18 pm to djsdawg
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This is already killing far more than most of y'all reds ever expected, and that was WITH a shut down.
The early projections predicted 2 million people dying...
quote:
How many would need to die for you to say it isn't ridiculous?
a whole lot more than have or will
Posted on 5/6/20 at 1:19 pm to Hugh McElroy
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That's pretty much my point. Even "Trump's crew" was impacted by expectations that are not and will not become a reality.
The models that predicted 2.2 mil if we did nothing predicted min 100k with social distancing, and we are set to hit a little above 100k now.
But go ahead and continue to ignore and/or fail to understand basic probability.
Posted on 5/6/20 at 1:21 pm to lsufball19
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early projections predicted 2 million people dying...
With a time least 2 qualifiers like Doing nothing and it occurring Over a full year, right?
quote:
whole lot more than have or will
Lookin for a number. One that is likely going to be much higher than what you would have said in March.
Posted on 5/6/20 at 1:24 pm to Dolphin
LSU athletics sure gobbled up my ticket fees like season is starting on time...
Posted on 5/6/20 at 1:26 pm to TigerLunatik
quote:
This hasn't exactly been treated like any other illness though, has it?
Eta: damn autocorrect
Nope. But I think people are starting to wake up.
Shock fear is usually short lived.
Posted on 5/6/20 at 1:27 pm to PlateJohnsonIII
quote:
The models that predicted 2.2 mil if we did nothing predicted min 100k with social distancing, and we are set to hit a little above 100k now.
But go ahead and continue to ignore and/or fail to understand basic probability.
You straight made this up. Where is this model?
Posted on 5/6/20 at 1:30 pm to djsdawg
quote:
Lookin for a number. One that is likely going to be much higher than what you would have said in March.
Why do you need a number? We aren't going to get to a death toll to justify shutting down the economy in my opinion, so there's really no point in me trying to make up some hypothetical number where it would be ok.
Posted on 5/6/20 at 1:30 pm to JPLSU1981
quote:
Fall season with no fans: 0%
This is one of the most likely scenarios, not sure what you’re talking about.
Posted on 5/6/20 at 1:32 pm to djsdawg
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Of course, You always whine about politics in an attempt to avoid a real discussion about the issues at hand.
You are the one who brought up politics, I just pointed out you are politically motivated.
Why can't you talk about the topic without bringing up politics and trying to stereotype people into 2 political sides? You see politics in everything because that is YOUR focus. Stop projecting it on everyone else.
In doing so you suggest that all other possibilities do not exist, when maybe some people just care about dealing with the shite that's going on and don't give a crap about the election in November.
Posted on 5/6/20 at 1:38 pm to PlateJohnsonIII
quote:
predicted min 100k with social distancing
I think you're misquoting. Fauci announced new models ranging from a low end of 100k-200k deaths after we imposed social distancing, not before.
This was the original model from March 18
quote:
To understand how mitigation or suppression would play out, the Imperial College team, led by Neil Ferguson, OBE, ran a model based on three scenarios. In the first, US officials do nothing to mitigate the spread of COVID-19, schools and businesses are kept open, and the virus is allowed to move through the population.
This would result in 81% of the US population, about 264 million people, contracting the disease. Of those, 2.2 million would die, including 4% to 8% of Americans over age 70. More important, by the second week in April, the demand for critical care beds would be 30 times greater than supply.
If mitigation practices are put in place, including a combination of case isolation, home quarantine, and social distancing of those most at risk (over age 70), the peak critical care demand would reduce by 60%, and there would be half the number of deaths. But this scenario still produces an eightfold demand on critical care beds above surge capacity.
LINK
So with social distancing, they thought the death toll would be cut in half from 2.2 million to about 1 million. We are going to be at about 10-15% of those projections based on current models that predict 125-150k deaths
Posted on 5/6/20 at 1:40 pm to Peepdip
quote:
Do rednecks not understand cause and effect?
I swear people used to be smarter than this.
“We’ve been in an unprecedented lockdown with millions isolated, and this thing’s only killed 100k.”
There are people that seriously think and read this and can’t comprehend the connection between the two.
It’s frightening. The math and science behind all this isn’t even complicated either, but people treat the “models” like it’s voodoo magic.
Posted on 5/6/20 at 1:41 pm to 3down10
quote:
You are the one who brought up politics,
Nice try, but I did not. Stop making up BS.
The problem is You see any critique of our current presidential failures throughout this pandemic as political, and then you take offense to it, which is hypocritically due to your political mindset. No way you acted this way when people critiqued the previous president. No way.
This post was edited on 5/6/20 at 1:42 pm
Posted on 5/6/20 at 1:46 pm to lsufball19
quote:
I think you're misquoting
Well, to be fair, I’m paraphrasing Trump, so it could be complete bullshite.
In the press conference where they announced the 100k, Trump said multiple times that the “without the social distancing” number was 2M. I assume this would be from the same model that gave the 100k just with the infection rate distributions changing to reflect no social distancing. If he’s citing two completely different models than that’s on him for being dumb.
Although I guess it’s also semantics. Change those underlying distributions and you could very easily argue they are “different models”.
Posted on 5/6/20 at 1:46 pm to djsdawg
quote:
our current presidential failures
care to list them?
The democrats were calling this a nothing burger until it became politically advantageous to say we were unprepared because of Trump. They lost their collective minds when a travel ban was imposed on China at the end of January. But now, pivot to he didn't act soon enough. At the end of the day, it really doesn't matter what he would have done, it would have been portrayed as wrong, which is nothing new in our political climate the past 4 years
Posted on 5/6/20 at 1:47 pm to lsufball19
quote:
Why do you need a number? We aren't going to get to a death toll to justify shutting down the economy in my opinion, so there's really no point in me trying to make up some hypothetical number where it would be ok.
After seeing 2k die a day for a month, you have been desensitized to covid deaths at this current level. I imagine you would have thought of 125k dead in a couple of months quite differently in March. Now you yawn about it. When would that yawning stop, 500k? 1 million?
Posted on 5/6/20 at 1:54 pm to djsdawg
quote:
Nice try, but I did not. Stop making up BS.
You referred to people as "reds".
Is that crap so ingrained into your mind now that you don't even realize it anymore?
That's sad.
quote:
The problem is You see any critique of our current presidential failures throughout this pandemic as political, and then you take offense to it, which is hypocritically due to your political mindset. No way you acted this way when people critiqued the previous president. No way.
I do not vote. They are all a bunch of shitheads and it's a complete waste of time even if I were to pretend my vote made a difference.
Again, you just project yourself onto other people. You say in 1 paragraph you did not, but then you accuse everyone who doesn't go along with your viewpoint as being in bed with the other side, blah blah blah.
Posted on 5/6/20 at 1:57 pm to djsdawg
quote:
After seeing 2k die a day for a month, you have been desensitized to covid deaths at this current level. I imagine you would have thought of 125k dead in a couple of months quite differently in March. Now you yawn about it. When would that yawning stop, 500k? 1 million?
Did you know over 700k people died in the US over the last 3 months?
And that it was a normal amount. Well, 3% below average, but basically normal. The last month higher than normal for obvious reasons.
LINK
This post was edited on 5/6/20 at 2:02 pm
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