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Which programs are stepping up and which are slipping?
Posted on 1/17/18 at 11:37 am
Posted on 1/17/18 at 11:37 am
Here are how various programs ranked in terms of the Total number of 4* and 5* recruits signed during the 5 years from 2009-2013:
1. Alabama- 89
2. Texas- 81
3. Florida- 76
3. Ohio St.- 76
5. LSU- 74
6. USC- 70
7. Florida St.- 62
8. Georgia- 61
9. Michigan- 60
10. Oklahoma- 58
11. Auburn- 57
11. Notre Dame- 57
13. UCLA- 49
14. Tennessee- 44
15. Oregon- 43
16. Clemson- 42
17. Texas A&M- 41
18. Miami- 39
19. California- 36
20. S. Carolina- 35
Now here are the number of 4* and 5* kids signed by school during the 5 years from 2014-2018 (includes commitments in the current 2018 class not yet signed):
1. Alabama- 96
2. Ohio St.- 87
3. Georgia- 79
4. LSU- 75
5. Auburn- 74
6. USC- 69
6. Florida St.- 69
8. Texas- 62
9. Notre Dame- 61
10. Oklahoma- 59
11. Michigan- 58
12. Tennessee- 54
12. Clemson- 54
14. Penn St.- 50
15. Texas A&M- 49
16. UCLA- 46
16. Miami- 46
18. Florida- 41
19. Stanford- 36
20. Oregon- 35
If you compare the most recent 5-year period (2014-2018) to the previous 5-year period (2009-2013), these are the programs that have stepped up their game the most in terms of recruiting:
1. Georgia +18
1. Penn St.- +18
3. Auburn- +17
4. Clemson- +12
5. Ohio St.- +11
6. Tennessee- +10
7. Washington- +9
7. Kentucky- +9
9. Texas A&M- +8
9. TCU- +8
And here are the programs that have seen the greatest drop-off in incoming talent (Note: its not a good thing to be at the top):
1. Florida: -35
2. California: -27
3. Texas: -19
4. Nebraska: -13
5. Oregon: -8
6. Missouri: -7
7. Oklahoma St.: -6
7. Virginia Tech: -6
9. UCLA: -3
**Note: Alabama led the way with the most 4* and 5* recruits during both time periods. They actually signed 7 more during the most recent 5-year period compared to the previous 5-year period.
If you want to know why Florida is struggling these days, its because they don't have the talent. They're averaging 7 fewer 4* and 5* kids signing PER YEAR. Multiply that over 4 or 5 years and you have a team totally depleted of talent compared to how it used to be.
Was McElwain truly a bad coach or did he just fail to bring in enough talent to be nationally relevant? If Dan Mullen wants to succeed at Florida he's going to have to start signing Top 5 or Top 10 classes annually. Here are where the last several Florida signing classes ranked:
2018: #17 (current ranking)
2017: #11
2016: #12
2015: #21
2014: #9
2013: #3
2012: #3
2011: #11
2010: #1
2009: #7
This is about to be the 4th consecutive Florida signing class outside the Top 10. If you are in the SEC, you can't be competitive without at least Top 10 talent. Mullen was not particularly known for his recruiting abilities in Starkville. However he now has a better program to recruit from. Will be interesting to see if he turns it around.
When the Class of 2020 is all signed, if Mullen hasn't signed a Top 8 class, go ahead and write him off. Florida has got to sign Top 5 talent if it want to compete for SEC/National Titles.
On the other hand, all 5 schools who have stepped up their game the most in recruiting the last 5 years played in NY6 Bowls: Georgia- CFP/NCG... Penn St- Fiesta... Auburn- Peach... Clemson- CFP.... Ohio St.- Cotton
1. Alabama- 89
2. Texas- 81
3. Florida- 76
3. Ohio St.- 76
5. LSU- 74
6. USC- 70
7. Florida St.- 62
8. Georgia- 61
9. Michigan- 60
10. Oklahoma- 58
11. Auburn- 57
11. Notre Dame- 57
13. UCLA- 49
14. Tennessee- 44
15. Oregon- 43
16. Clemson- 42
17. Texas A&M- 41
18. Miami- 39
19. California- 36
20. S. Carolina- 35
Now here are the number of 4* and 5* kids signed by school during the 5 years from 2014-2018 (includes commitments in the current 2018 class not yet signed):
1. Alabama- 96
2. Ohio St.- 87
3. Georgia- 79
4. LSU- 75
5. Auburn- 74
6. USC- 69
6. Florida St.- 69
8. Texas- 62
9. Notre Dame- 61
10. Oklahoma- 59
11. Michigan- 58
12. Tennessee- 54
12. Clemson- 54
14. Penn St.- 50
15. Texas A&M- 49
16. UCLA- 46
16. Miami- 46
18. Florida- 41
19. Stanford- 36
20. Oregon- 35
If you compare the most recent 5-year period (2014-2018) to the previous 5-year period (2009-2013), these are the programs that have stepped up their game the most in terms of recruiting:
1. Georgia +18
1. Penn St.- +18
3. Auburn- +17
4. Clemson- +12
5. Ohio St.- +11
6. Tennessee- +10
7. Washington- +9
7. Kentucky- +9
9. Texas A&M- +8
9. TCU- +8
And here are the programs that have seen the greatest drop-off in incoming talent (Note: its not a good thing to be at the top):
1. Florida: -35
2. California: -27
3. Texas: -19
4. Nebraska: -13
5. Oregon: -8
6. Missouri: -7
7. Oklahoma St.: -6
7. Virginia Tech: -6
9. UCLA: -3
**Note: Alabama led the way with the most 4* and 5* recruits during both time periods. They actually signed 7 more during the most recent 5-year period compared to the previous 5-year period.
If you want to know why Florida is struggling these days, its because they don't have the talent. They're averaging 7 fewer 4* and 5* kids signing PER YEAR. Multiply that over 4 or 5 years and you have a team totally depleted of talent compared to how it used to be.
Was McElwain truly a bad coach or did he just fail to bring in enough talent to be nationally relevant? If Dan Mullen wants to succeed at Florida he's going to have to start signing Top 5 or Top 10 classes annually. Here are where the last several Florida signing classes ranked:
2018: #17 (current ranking)
2017: #11
2016: #12
2015: #21
2014: #9
2013: #3
2012: #3
2011: #11
2010: #1
2009: #7
This is about to be the 4th consecutive Florida signing class outside the Top 10. If you are in the SEC, you can't be competitive without at least Top 10 talent. Mullen was not particularly known for his recruiting abilities in Starkville. However he now has a better program to recruit from. Will be interesting to see if he turns it around.
When the Class of 2020 is all signed, if Mullen hasn't signed a Top 8 class, go ahead and write him off. Florida has got to sign Top 5 talent if it want to compete for SEC/National Titles.
On the other hand, all 5 schools who have stepped up their game the most in recruiting the last 5 years played in NY6 Bowls: Georgia- CFP/NCG... Penn St- Fiesta... Auburn- Peach... Clemson- CFP.... Ohio St.- Cotton
This post was edited on 1/17/18 at 11:38 am
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Posted on 1/17/18 at 11:48 am to BHMKyle
We ain’t done yet, and everyone knows it.
Posted on 1/17/18 at 11:49 am to BHMKyle
Good info.
A few points of interest.
Recruiting the kids and retaining/playing the kids are 2 different things. Lots of programs bring in a 4 star or better QB almost every year. But in a 5 year span, only 2 of them may contribute any quality production.
The same issue can be said for programs who stack tight ends.
Also of interest regarding a top 10 class in the country... it may only be 7th best in the conference. It is in the thick of things. But expecting division championships every year with a 5th-7th best talented class based on talent alone is foolish.
A few points of interest.
Recruiting the kids and retaining/playing the kids are 2 different things. Lots of programs bring in a 4 star or better QB almost every year. But in a 5 year span, only 2 of them may contribute any quality production.
The same issue can be said for programs who stack tight ends.
Also of interest regarding a top 10 class in the country... it may only be 7th best in the conference. It is in the thick of things. But expecting division championships every year with a 5th-7th best talented class based on talent alone is foolish.
Posted on 1/17/18 at 11:50 am to BHMKyle
To some extent, Saban is a Tide that is lifting all boats
Please credit me when you put that on your airbrushed license plates, bammers
Please credit me when you put that on your airbrushed license plates, bammers
Posted on 1/17/18 at 11:50 am to BHMKyle
quote:
And here are the programs that have seen the greatest drop-off in incoming talent (Note: its not a good thing to be at the top):
1. Florida: -35
While this explains why they suck...
quote:
these are the programs that have stepped up their game the most in terms of recruiting:
6. Tennessee- +10
7. Kentucky- +9
9. Texas A&M- +8
Why do these teams suck?
Posted on 1/17/18 at 11:51 am to BHMKyle
And here are the # of 4* and 5* kids signed by SEC programs the last 5 years (includes current commitments in 2018 class):
1. Alabama- 96
2. Georgia- 79
3. LSU- 75
4. Auburn- 74
5. Tennessee- 54
6. Texas A&M- 49
7. Florida- 41
8. Ole Miss- 33
8. S. Carolina- 33
10. Arkansas- 23
11. Miss. St.- 21
12. Kentucky- 19
13. Missouri- 9
I didn't count up Vandy's but its probably right around where Mizzou sits.
That gap between #4 and #5 is MASSIVE.
1. Alabama- 96
2. Georgia- 79
3. LSU- 75
4. Auburn- 74
5. Tennessee- 54
6. Texas A&M- 49
7. Florida- 41
8. Ole Miss- 33
8. S. Carolina- 33
10. Arkansas- 23
11. Miss. St.- 21
12. Kentucky- 19
13. Missouri- 9
I didn't count up Vandy's but its probably right around where Mizzou sits.
That gap between #4 and #5 is MASSIVE.
Posted on 1/17/18 at 11:54 am to BHMKyle
Look for Tennessee, Florida and A&M to close the gap since they hired new coaching staffs.
Posted on 1/17/18 at 11:54 am to GameCocky88
quote:
these are the programs that have stepped up their game the most in terms of recruiting:
6. Tennessee- +10
7. Kentucky- +9
9. Texas A&M- +8
Why do these teams suck?
Kentucky still isn't in the top 20 for the most recent period. Tennessee and a&m are in the bottom half of the top 20.
Also, these are recruiting classes. Not who is playing on the field (Tennessee kicking kids off the team or not playing them like kamara)
Posted on 1/17/18 at 12:00 pm to GameCocky88
quote:
6. Tennessee- +10
7. Kentucky- +9
9. Texas A&M- +8
Why do these teams suck?
Just because they've stepped up their game doesn't mean they are recruiting near the top of the country. Tennessee ranks 13th in 4* and 5* kids signed the past 5 seasons.... Texas A&M ranks 15th.... and Kentucky ranks 29.
That's decent talent, but for being in the SEC its not good.
Recruiting Rankings are really only accurate if you compare programs within the same region. I mean Wisconsin has signed zero 5* kids and only 20 kids with a 4* rating over the past decade... that's only 2 kids with a 4-5* ranking per year. Yet they seem to finish in the Top 10 annually.
Why? Because they are signing kids who fly under the radar during recruitment. Kids in the Midwest are not participating in the All-Star games and the 7 on 7 tournaments like the top tier kids in the South. So many are unknown. Doesn't mean they don't have talent.
So while Tennessee and Texas A&M are ranking in the Top 15... you can probably count on at least 5-10 or so other programs signing equal or better talent that just didn't show up in the rankings.
Then you have to also consider the fact that they are playing such difficult schedules. Texas A&M plays in the SEC West. Tennessee plays Bama every season along with the SEC East which means they have a pretty brutal schedule..... so while there is obvious talent on those teams, it may not show up in the W/L records.
Lastly much of the talent is just not being developed. Butch had plenty of talent.... there is no excuse for 0-8 in SEC play.
Posted on 1/17/18 at 12:00 pm to BHMKyle
I think Georgia slipped in the championship game
Posted on 1/17/18 at 12:03 pm to BHMKyle
I didn't realize that Auburn had improved that much in recruiting. They have pretty much always recruited well, but seem to be turning it up a notch.
Posted on 1/17/18 at 12:10 pm to BHMKyle
quote:
If you are in the SEC, you can't be competitive without at least Top 10 talent.
I understand where you wanted to go with this thread ... but the statement above is not really accurate.
The recruiting services have gotten better over the years. But they still miss on a lot of players. The NFL is littered with players who were 3* and less outta HS.
That's not to say high rankings don't mean anything, because they do. But you most certainly can be competitive with a proper chemical mix of highly rated players and blue collar players.
There is such a thing as having too many blue chippers and not enough blue collars.
Posted on 1/17/18 at 12:13 pm to scrooster
quote:
There is such a thing as having too many blue chippers and not enough blue collars.
That is definitely true. But, nobody outside of UCF has won a recent NC without top-10 recruiting talent.
Posted on 1/17/18 at 12:22 pm to BHMKyle
quote:
If Dan Mullen wants to succeed at Florida he's going to have to start signing Top 5 or Top 10 classes annually.
I think you need to be near the top 10 at least. I don't think he'll have to be top 5 to be very successful though. Keep in mind Mullen took this type of recruits to the top spot in the poll for a few weeks. It wasn't a fluke, they were pretty legit for a couple of years:
And here are the # of 4* and 5* kids signed by SEC programs the last 5 years (includes current commitments in 2018 class):
1. Alabama- 96
2. Georgia- 79
3. LSU- 75
4. Auburn- 74
5. Tennessee- 54
6. Texas A&M- 49
7. Florida- 41
8. Ole Miss- 33
8. S. Carolina- 33
10. Arkansas- 23
11. Miss. St.- 21
12. Kentucky- 19
13. Missouri- 9
As long as Dan gets his style of QB and some solid athletes on defense they'll be competing for the East annually. He'll take some of those high level 3 stars from Florida and have a dynamic offense that shreds people.
Posted on 1/17/18 at 12:30 pm to AllUrCrootsRBlong2Us
And that's the thing about Florida talent. They, unlike any other state, have so much high-3* talent available at skill positions ... it's kinda like Georgia has with linemen.
I'd take a high-3* skill player from Florida and a high-3* DLineman from Georgia any day of the week because the way the services are set-up there is a cap on how many 4* and 5* players they award at any one position per state based on capita.
I'd take a high-3* skill player from Florida and a high-3* DLineman from Georgia any day of the week because the way the services are set-up there is a cap on how many 4* and 5* players they award at any one position per state based on capita.
Posted on 1/17/18 at 12:33 pm to AllUrCrootsRBlong2Us
quote:
Mullen took this type of recruits to the top spot in the poll for a few weeks.
His best team in '14 was crushed by GT and he was 0-3
vs top 20's
Yea blue chips matter and the more you have the better
your odds of winning big
Posted on 1/17/18 at 12:35 pm to DawgsLife
quote:
I didn't realize that Auburn had improved that much in recruiting. They have pretty much always recruited well, but seem to be turning it up a notch.
They have. Which is why Auburn has been competitive for the SEC Title in recent years unlike Florida, Texas A&M, etc.
Here is the average 247Sports ranking score for the past 5 classes (including this year):
1. Alabama- 305.94
2. Ohio St.- 296.41
3. Georgia- 289.79
4. LSU- 282.79
5. USC- 280.44
6. Florida St.- 275.22
7. Auburn- 269.43
8. Texas- 260.28
9. Notre Dame- 258.06
10. Clemson- 258.01
They've brought in the 7th most talent of any program... good for 4th best in the SEC, behind Bama, Georgia, and LSU.
Posted on 1/17/18 at 12:36 pm to BHMKyle
quote:
from 2009-2013
quote:
2. Texas- 81
Recruiting isn't everything
Posted on 1/17/18 at 12:37 pm to DuncanIdaho
quote:
That is definitely true. But, nobody outside of UCF has won a recent NC without top-10 recruiting talent.
Posted on 1/17/18 at 12:38 pm to scrooster
quote:
There is such a thing as having too many blue chippers and not enough blue collars.
Who says a blue chopper can't be blue collar?They work
just as hard to get to where they're at as any other
star ranked kid.
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