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re: Week 8 Power Ratings and SEC slate
Posted on 10/21/26 at 3:29 pm to 3down10
Posted on 10/21/26 at 3:29 pm to 3down10
quote:
I literally explained the rest and you purposely choose to ignore it.
OH, I understood it all. You claimed you had a model that made a better spread, and you bet the gaps between when you thought Vegas missed it.
How much money have you cashed ?
I'll guess none. Because you wouldn't flaunt your system if it made money.
Posted on 10/21/26 at 3:31 pm to ScoggDog
quote:
How much money have you made ? Because we can ALL use "a model".
Even a "just picking winners" model. Here's a new one of mine. Georgia wins. Good for around 5 of 6 outcomes.
I used to know a couple guys that though Sagarin cracked the code. They stopped a few grand under.
You are an idiot who can't read where I already answered this question.
You pick against the fricking spread.
What does the model do?
It tries to determine the fricking spread.
What happens? They come to the same damn conclusion.
Is Vegas going to pay me because I call them up and say - yep, that's a pretty good spread? Or do you want to bet your money against Vegas and their 15.5 spread against your 16 point spread?
This post was edited on 10/21/26 at 3:32 pm
Posted on 10/21/26 at 3:35 pm to 3down10
I'm pretty sure Kentucky is host to a lot of inbreds (bless their souls), and I think ScoggDog might be one of them.
This post was edited on 10/21/26 at 3:36 pm
Posted on 10/21/26 at 3:36 pm to 3down10
I just came up with a "New Model".
Vegas Spread EQUALS My Spread.
I'm so smart.
Vegas Spread EQUALS My Spread.
I'm so smart.
Posted on 10/21/26 at 3:37 pm to ScoggDog
quote:
OH, I understood it all. You claimed you had a model that made a better spread, and you bet the gaps between when you thought Vegas missed it.
How much money have you cashed ?
I'll guess none. Because you wouldn't flaunt your system if it made money.
I never claimed that. I don't gamble for starters, I do this because I enjoy it.
The point of the spread wasn't that it was better, it was that they are so close there is no real difference or direction on which way to bet. Sometimes they are exactly the same.
So you obviously didn't understand it all, or much of it.
Posted on 10/21/26 at 3:37 pm to ScoggDog
quote:
You claimed you had a model that made a better spread, and you bet the gaps between when you thought Vegas missed it.
This is not even close to what he said or meant.
Posted on 10/21/26 at 3:41 pm to MilkJug
Here's my newest Model. Just coded this one up.
Whatever DraftKings sets the line at IS the line of my model.
DraftKings LIne == ScoggLine !
Tracks 100% !!!
Bow to my brilliance.
Whatever DraftKings sets the line at IS the line of my model.
DraftKings LIne == ScoggLine !
Tracks 100% !!!
Bow to my brilliance.
Posted on 10/21/26 at 3:53 pm to ScoggDog
quote:
Here's my newest Model. Just coded this one up.
Whatever DraftKings sets the line at IS the line of my model.
DraftKings LIne == ScoggLine !
Tracks 100% !!!
Bow to my brilliance.
Ok. my "Draft Kings" predicts Kentucky to go 9-3 ranked around #20. I guess your model agrees.
Posted on 10/21/26 at 3:58 pm to 3down10
Guys ... I just came up with a model. It doesn't explain or predict a fricking thing ... but I put some time into it !!!
Posted on 10/21/26 at 4:00 pm to WG_Dawg
quote:
Just so everyone else can see how dumb this dude is here was last week's version:
WEek 7
Notre dame had the highest rating in america, and now despite losing to a scrub team they are STILL the highest rated team in america.
Last week Texas had the 9th highest rating. This week they have the....8th highest. AFter a home loss they actaully gained ground!
Last week LSU was 8 and now after beating a "pretty solid with their best player and all american caliber QB but pretty arse without him playing" msu, they skyrocket all the way to 3.
In some defense of the OP, they state that it's to predict score and spread. Neither of those indicate if a team is actually good or not. Nor does it indicate the teams they played are actually good or not.
TAMU and Clemson are not above average, and MS State not having KT skewed that game (how much is debatable; we'll never know), so I don't know how much body of work is really counting here other than strictly score and spread when LSU is beating bad teams at home and losing to good teams on the road.
Posted on 10/21/26 at 4:03 pm to ScoggDog
quote:
Guys ... I just came up with a model. It doesn't explain or predict a fricking thing ... but I put some time into it !!!
Says the guy butt hurt to the point of joining this conversation for no other reason than to shite on the discussion and put his ignorance of the topic on display for all to see.
Posted on 10/21/26 at 4:06 pm to 3down10
I just whipped up a new model. It shows LSU beats Kentucky and 'Bama beats Tenner.
Its got Math and Such.
But I'll give you a "behind the scenes" look at my code.
001 LSU >>>> Kentucky + Saban == CoachBama !
End Program
Its got Math and Such.
But I'll give you a "behind the scenes" look at my code.
001 LSU >>>> Kentucky + Saban == CoachBama !
End Program
Posted on 10/21/26 at 4:12 pm to ScoggDog
quote:
I just whipped up a new model. It shows LSU beats Kentucky and 'Bama beats Tenner.
Its got Math and Such.
But I'll give you a "behind the scenes" look at my code.
001 LSU >>>> Kentucky + Saban == CoachBama !
End Program
Your meltdown over a computer ranking is off the charts.
But yeah:
LSU would be 11 point favorites if a rematch was to happen @ Kentucky. 18 point favorites at home and 14.5 point favorites on a neutral field.
Alabama would be 0.5 favorites @ Tennessee. 4 point favorites on a neutral site and 7 point favorites at home.
Roughly anyway, that's my model which isn't as good as others.
Posted on 10/21/26 at 4:12 pm to ScoggDog
My God ... its like my mind is a raging torrent, flooded with rivulets of thought, cascading into a waterfall of creative alternatives.
And one of these alternatives is My New Math Model of College Football !!!
It goes like this ...
Alabama = One Zillion / ( 1 - YearsStNickNotThere ) * We Don't Care, We Got NoWhere Else To Go.
LSU == HaveYouSeenHowPoorWeAre * We'll Love This Coach Until The Next One ;
End Statement
And one of these alternatives is My New Math Model of College Football !!!
It goes like this ...
Alabama = One Zillion / ( 1 - YearsStNickNotThere ) * We Don't Care, We Got NoWhere Else To Go.
LSU == HaveYouSeenHowPoorWeAre * We'll Love This Coach Until The Next One ;
End Statement
Posted on 10/21/26 at 4:18 pm to ScoggDog
I gotta' give my fingers a break. And my brilliant mind. But Yet One More College Football Model just came in.
And this one's historical. Based upon my dead ol' GrandMa'. Who had not a fricking clue about anything computer.
But if she could have coded ? I'm sure she would have typed ...
Probably (queary) Alabama > Tenner If||Or
LSU NOT OT LOSE Statement Kentucky
One Hand Wish == shite in Other
Queary (Execute);
Full Fastest ?
End Queary
Result ... Equal
And this one's historical. Based upon my dead ol' GrandMa'. Who had not a fricking clue about anything computer.
But if she could have coded ? I'm sure she would have typed ...
Probably (queary) Alabama > Tenner If||Or
LSU NOT OT LOSE Statement Kentucky
One Hand Wish == shite in Other
Queary (Execute);
Full Fastest ?
End Queary
Result ... Equal
Posted on 10/21/26 at 4:20 pm to SparkyWilson
quote:
TAMU and Clemson are not above average
My model:
TAMU is #31
Clemson is #51
ESPN FPI:
TAMU is #23
Clemson is #48
SP+:
TAMU is #33
Clemson is #56
There are 138 FBS teams. Average would be #69.
You can think they aren't above average all you want, but you are wrong.
quote:
I don't know how much body of work is really counting here other than strictly score and spread
Strength of the opponent is at the core of how the model works. It is how spreads are produced. This is the whole purpose of the rating value you see on the list. Then, the results of a game are judged against that predicted spread. So if a team overperforms then they get a bump. If they underperform, they get docked. More specifically, it looks at how Team A's offense faired against Team B's defense. And how Team A's defense faired against Team B's offense.
This post was edited on 10/21/26 at 4:30 pm
Posted on 10/21/26 at 4:29 pm to ScoggDog
quote:
I gotta' give my fingers a break. And my brilliant mind. But Yet One More College Football Model just came in.
And this one's historical. Based upon my dead ol' GrandMa'. Who had not a fricking clue about anything computer.
But if she could have coded ? I'm sure she would have typed ...
Probably (queary) Alabama > Tenner If||Or
LSU NOT OT LOSE Statement Kentucky
One Hand Wish == shite in Other
Queary (Execute);
Full Fastest ?
End Queary
Result ... Equal
Your "brilliant mind" misspelled "query" multiple times.
Posted on 10/21/26 at 4:52 pm to MilkJug
quote:
My model:
TAMU is #31
Clemson is #51
ESPN FPI:
TAMU is #23
Clemson is #48
SP+:
TAMU is #33
Clemson is #56
There are 138 FBS teams. Average would be #69.
You can think they aren't above average all you want, but you are wrong.
Those teams are not above average in ability. That's clear from their schedules and performances thus far this season. When measured against the entire FBS, yeah, you can say that, but there's 67 teams in the P4. So, if this is about predicting spreads across the entire FBS, then, yeah, fine, call them above average.
quote:
Strength of the opponent is at the core of how the model works. It is how spreads are produced. This is the whole purpose of the rating value you see on the list. Then, the results of a game are judged against that predicted spread. So if a team overperforms then they get a bump. If they underperform, they get docked. More specifically, it looks at how Team A's offense faired against Team B's defense. And how Team A's defense faired against Team B's offense.
Doesn't really capture the strength of a team. meeting or beating a spread against bad or overrated teams doesn't say much about the team doing it necessarily.
Posted on 10/21/26 at 6:33 pm to SparkyWilson
quote:
So, if this is about predicting spreads across the entire FBS, then, yeah, fine, call them above average.
Why would this be about some subset of the entire FBS? My power rating rates all 138 teams in FBS. It's not a Power 4 only power rating. Why would I do that?
quote:
Doesn't really capture the strength of a team. meeting or beating a spread against bad or overrated teams doesn't say much about the team doing it necessarily.
Absolutely it does. You are continuing to miss the point. The point of the model is TO PREDICT SCORES. Scoring is what matters most.
The model starts week 1 with its rating based solely on talent (because it has no scoring data). Week 2, the model is 75% talent, 25% scoring data. Week 3 is it 50% talent, 50% scoring data. Week 4 it is 25% talent, 75% scoring data. At Week 5, the model is 100% based on scoring data. It uses a large system of equations to determine each team's offensive rating and defensive rating. Then offense rating + defense rating = total score, which is what you see on the list. The strength of an opponent is baked into the spread.
#9 Ole Miss = 18.0
#31 TAMU = 8.7
18.0 - 8.7 = 9.3
Ole Miss would be a 9.3 point favorite over Texas A&M on a neutral field. If Ole Miss beats TAMU by 30, then Ole Miss was underrated and TAMU was overrated. So the model adjusts.
It does this for EVERY COMPLETED GAME OF THE SEASON every week at one time. It is a very large system of equations.
When week 8's power rating is calculated, it uses all games from week 1 thru week 7 in it's calculation.
It is basically answering this question for each team:
Team offense rating
Team defense rating
which two rating values best satisfies the results we have seen from the games they have played.
For example:
LSU score (51) = league avg score + LSU offense rating (X) - Clemson defense rating (A)
Clemson score (10) = league avg score + Clemson offense rating (B) - LSU defense rating (Y)
LSU score (45) = league avg score + LSU offense rating (X) - LA Tech defense rating (A)
LA Tech score (14) = league avg score + LA Tech offense rating (B) - LSU defense rating (Y)
LSU score (24) = league avg score + LSU offense rating (X) - Ole Miss defense rating (A)
Ole Miss score (32) = league avg score + Ole Miss offense rating (B) - LSU defense rating (Y)
LSU score (35) = league avg score + LSU offense rating (X) -TAMU defense rating (A)
TAMU score (6) = league avg score + TAMU offense rating (B) - LSU defense rating (Y)
LSU score (34) = league avg score + LSU offense rating (X) - Kentucky defense rating (A)
Kentucky score (35) = league avg score + Kentucky offense rating (B) - LSU defense rating (Y)
LSU score (31) = league avg score + LSU offense rating (X) - Miss St defense rating (A)
Miss St score (0) = league avg score + Miss St offense rating (B) - LSU defense rating (Y)
It takes those known games and solve for best possible X and Y values where the MAE is as low as possible.
It does this for all teams and all games at the same time.
This post was edited on 10/21/26 at 6:47 pm
Posted on 10/21/26 at 8:47 pm to MilkJug
quote:
Why would this be about some subset of the entire FBS? My power rating rates all 138 teams in FBS. It's not a Power 4 only power rating. Why would I do that?
I understand that. Above average over the entire FBS is not the same as above average with their peers, the other 66 P4 teams. I can acknowledge they are above average teams in that context and also realize they aren't good teams when it comes to the P4. I don't see how the model can effectively account for the disparity in talent among all the FBS teams. That Clemson can improve it's overall "strength" by beating bad teams in the ACC does mean they are a quality opponent for a team in another conference.
quote:
Absolutely it does. You are continuing to miss the point. The point of the model is TO PREDICT SCORES. Scoring is what matters most.
Not missing the point. You're predicting scores and spreads. Great. Beating bad teams by covering the spread or better doesn't make a team a good team.
Somewhere in all this is the assertion that LSU is a good team. Beating bad teams at home and losing to good teams on the road doesn't make that so.
Anyway, have fun with your model. Maybe by seasons end it will mean LSU is a good team.
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