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Posted on 10/21/26 at 11:07 am to MNW
quote:
States QB was a walk-on whose last start was in Mississippi private school ball. His dad did donate enough for him to get Dak's number, though.
Is your backup hurt too? Why is starting a game at all?
Posted on 10/21/26 at 11:09 am to DawgsLife
quote:
Anybody that thinks LSU is the 3rd best team in the country needs their head examined. If LSU fans want to claim this, then they should be royally ticked off that their coach has the 3rd best team and lost to Kentucky (#22 according to these power rankings) and Ole Miss (#10 according to these power rankings).
Its not a poll. It's a betting tool. Calm down.
Posted on 10/21/26 at 11:14 am to megiddo
quote:
Looking at just the top two teams, Notre Dame was favored by 10 and lost by 4, that's a 14 point loss against the spread which is just awful and should have sent them tumbling way down. Miami was favored by 20 points and couldn't beat FSU in regulation which is even worse. That should have sent them tumbling.
1. Their rating DID tumble. And so did Alabama, and Georgia, and Texas - the teams right behind them.
2. Stop looking at the order of the list week to week. Look at each team's rating value week to week. LSU's placement "went up" because so many teams ahead of them fell down.
3. The game last Saturday is not the only game that matters. A team's performance against their entire schedule matters.
4. Wins and losses aren't the tell-all. The margin of victory in those games is what matters - not wins and losses. Kentucky is 5-1, but they've barely won those games and had a lot of help winning them. They are not a top 10 strength team right now. Do they deserve to be top 10 in polls? Absolutely. This is not a poll. This is a measure of who would be favored over who on a neutral field. And if you compare my game predictions to Vegas - it's similar.
quote:
So I don't think this rating is about the spread at all. There are a lot of teams who did way better against the spread than those two on top.
It is 100% about the spread. And more so, it's about a team's margin of victory against their schedule (not all schedules are created equal). Before you casually say "ND's schedule sucks". It doesn't suck quite as bad as you think it does and they have outperformed expectations in all of those games except one.
Posted on 10/21/26 at 11:16 am to NickPapageorgio
quote:
There is no making any sense of his model because it is senseless.
Yet it produces similar results to Vegas. So maybe you just don't understand how it works.
Posted on 10/21/26 at 11:17 am to MilkJug
Who would someone downvote something like this where someone puts a lot of efford into posting a lot of information and not downvote "Sankey LSU something something?"
Posted on 10/21/26 at 11:19 am to Violent Hip Swivel
quote:
Who would someone downvote something like this where someone puts a lot of efford into posting a lot of information and not downvote "Sankey LSU something something?"
Because my model is showing them that their team isn't as good as they think they are and they're butthurt over it.
They're also butthurt because it shows LSU as the top SEC team. Even though LSU leads the SEC in total offense and total defense. They have ZERO clue how these things work, how Vegas works, they just see "LSU 2 losses. Trash". Because that's how simple their brains are.
This post was edited on 10/21/26 at 11:23 am
Posted on 10/21/26 at 12:06 pm to MilkJug
So I can brag we are better than Georgia, who beat us on our home field?
Don't want to hear from Tennessee fans!
Nevermind y'all just pushed our shite in
Don't want to hear from Tennessee fans!
Nevermind y'all just pushed our shite in
Posted on 10/21/26 at 2:24 pm to phaz
quote:
So I can brag we are better than Georgia, who beat us on our home field?
Don't want to hear from Tennessee fans!
Nevermind y'all just pushed our shite in
This may shock you, but one game doesn't always determine whether one team is better than the other.
Look at 2021 Georgia and Bama - what happened that year?
Look at 2025 Georgia and Bama - what happened that year?
In fact, more than half of in-season rematches in the last 6 years have gone the other way - think about that.
As it currently stands, the model thinks your team is slightly better than Georgia (by 1 point) and Tenn (by 6 points) on a neutral field based on your team's entire body of work.
This post was edited on 10/21/26 at 2:28 pm
Posted on 10/21/26 at 2:32 pm to megiddo
quote:
Looking at just the top two teams, Notre Dame was favored by 10 and lost by 4, that's a 14 point loss against the spread which is just awful and should have sent them tumbling way down. Miami was favored by 20 points and couldn't beat FSU in regulation which is even worse. That should have sent them tumbling.
So I don't think this rating is about the spread at all. There are a lot of teams who did way better against the spread than those two on top.
I'll gladly keep making easy money on Big 12 matches though.
The margin of error on predicted points and spreads for college football is about +/- 11-13 points.
Which is a testament to how unpredictable a college football game is.
This post was edited on 10/21/26 at 2:33 pm
Posted on 10/21/26 at 2:38 pm to 3down10
Anybody that could distill college football ... or basketball ... or horse racing ... or anything else to a model ? They wouldn't show you the model.
That's literally the Holy Grail of Gambling. Just crank the model, get the winners, then go out and make money.
This is the absolutely most annoying thing about the Information Era. The idea of "well, the number says". Its the new version of my parents listening to Walter Cronkite and then saying "Well, Walter said".
Its hard enough to make real models, using two or three variables, that predict real life stuff enough to be used to build real life stuff.
This "model" ? LIke all like it. Is fricking dumb.
That's literally the Holy Grail of Gambling. Just crank the model, get the winners, then go out and make money.
This is the absolutely most annoying thing about the Information Era. The idea of "well, the number says". Its the new version of my parents listening to Walter Cronkite and then saying "Well, Walter said".
Its hard enough to make real models, using two or three variables, that predict real life stuff enough to be used to build real life stuff.
This "model" ? LIke all like it. Is fricking dumb.
Posted on 10/21/26 at 2:39 pm to 3down10
quote:
The margin of error on predicted points and spreads for college football is about +/- 11-13 points.
Which is a testament to how unpredictable a college football game is.
This is true. Vegas averages about 11.5 MAE. My model is just under 12.
Posted on 10/21/26 at 2:40 pm to ScoggDog
quote:
Anybody that could distill college football ... or basketball ... or horse racing ... or anything else to a model ? They wouldn't show you the model.
That's literally the Holy Grail of Gambling. Just crank the model, get the winners, then go out and make money.
This is the absolutely most annoying thing about the Information Era. The idea of "well, the number says". Its the new version of my parents listening to Walter Cronkite and then saying "Well, Walter said".
Its hard enough to make real models, using two or three variables, that predict real life stuff enough to be used to build real life stuff.
This "model" ? LIke all like it. Is fricking dumb.
Sorry, but your team is not as good as you think they are.
Posted on 10/21/26 at 2:43 pm to MilkJug
sure it does 
Posted on 10/21/26 at 2:43 pm to MilkJug
quote:
Sorry, but your team is not as good as you think they are.
If your model was worth a piss ? You wouldn't share it for free.
You couldn't. Because the sharing of the model itself would shift money that would cut into your margins. Possibly even shift a line a half point. And no gambler can afford that.
Posted on 10/21/26 at 2:48 pm to MilkJug
32 - 24
People hate models because they are notoriously awful.
Take Climate models for instance....we cant accurately predict tge weather 20 days out but the makers of models are sure they have 50 years from now figured out.....but the models cant retroactively produce past results accurately either even when we know the past.
Thats why your model is garbage.
It cant accurately predict the future nor can it reconstruct the past recorded performances.
Thats nearly worthless as information.
Just accept that models are just not very useful in reality for complex systems with dozens of variables.
People hate models because they are notoriously awful.
Take Climate models for instance....we cant accurately predict tge weather 20 days out but the makers of models are sure they have 50 years from now figured out.....but the models cant retroactively produce past results accurately either even when we know the past.
Thats why your model is garbage.
It cant accurately predict the future nor can it reconstruct the past recorded performances.
Thats nearly worthless as information.
Just accept that models are just not very useful in reality for complex systems with dozens of variables.
Posted on 10/21/26 at 2:49 pm to ScoggDog
quote:
If your model was worth a piss ? You wouldn't share it for free.
You couldn't. Because the sharing of the model itself would shift money that would cut into your margins. Possibly even shift a line a half point. And no gambler can afford that.
My model doesn't drift based on a market the way Vegas does. It is what it is. Just like SP+ and ESPN FPI (both free btw) which also show that your team isn't as good as you think they are.
Posted on 10/21/26 at 2:52 pm to MilkJug
quote:
Sorry, but your team is not as good as you think they are.
Sorry, but your model is not as good as you think it is.
It’s been dumped on for weeks on end, and you’re still on here pushing it and getting offended about negative feedback. Your model, and the collective metrics you think matter in totality, do not mean what you think they mean.
Bottom line, your model sucks and it has always sucked. Either rework it, improve it, replace it, or whatever. But at this point, you need to embrace failure, utilize negative feedback, and try again, or just quit.
But no one is buying what you’re selling.
Posted on 10/21/26 at 2:54 pm to MilkJug
quote:
My model doesn't drift based on a market the way Vegas does. It is what it is. Just like SP+ and ESPN FPI (both free btw) which also show that your team isn't as good as you think they are.
And how is this model going to make you money this weekend ?
It won't. But you cranked up a spreadsheet. Mixed up some variables. And came up with some shite on a page.
I almost feel bad about pissing on you for this. Because at least you, you know, mathed.
Jut do this. Go Recursive. That means apply your model backward. See how well your model works then.
Except you can't find a historical data set that shows college football results, performance data, and lines. Because only Vegas has that shite.
Whomever working for them Mob Guys that had the foresight to start writing that shite down ? And convince them ? Genius. Let alone "Hey Vito, we need a database".
Posted on 10/21/26 at 2:56 pm to NickPapageorgio
quote:
Take Climate models for instance....we cant accurately predict tge weather 20 days out but the makers of models are sure they have 50 years from now figured out
No, they are not "sure". This is why they provide probabilities or a confidence score. My model also has a confidence score, which is per team. It is currently around 60%.
It's not our fault idiots don't understand the purpose of the models.
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