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re: UGA Concerns going into season
Posted on 8/21/23 at 9:21 am to SidewalkTiger
Posted on 8/21/23 at 9:21 am to SidewalkTiger
quote:
Didn't Stetson throw for around 2800 his first season as a starter?
Yes.
His first full season as a starter was 2022.
He didn't have a full season as the starter in 2021.
He did have 265 yards per game in November, December, and January of the 2021 season, though.
1
Posted on 8/21/23 at 9:21 am to SidewalkTiger
quote:
I don't disagree with anything you've said, my only "point" in this thread was that no one knows what this Beck/Bobo combo will bring to the table yet.
Not sure why some took offense to that, it's the truth.
While nobody knows... the signs that are there are very positive.
This isn't a situation like Bama where Milroe came in and averaged less than 6 yards per pass attempt and completed less than 60% of his passes with only 2 attempts against a ranked team.
Beck came in for UGA and averaged 9 yards per passing attempt and completed 75% of his pass attempts, with a big chunk of that against top 25 opponents.
He's also not a freshman adjusting to college life as well as playing college football. He's not unfamiliar with the playbook (UGA isn't changing the play names or a significant amount of their playbook from last year, Bobo might just call different things). He's a RS Junior entering his 4th year in the UGA program.
You seem to be pushing this as a "wildcard" scenario and it really isn't. He's a highly recruited QB who has physical talent, system experience and even a bit of game experience against ranked opponents. THere's reason for people thinking he'll do well... much more than the reverse.
The only reason QB gets pointed out as a question for UGA is that there aren't any other greater questions. But as far as questions go, it's not a big one.
Posted on 8/21/23 at 9:24 am to SidewalkTiger
quote:
Didn't Stetson throw for around 2800 his first season as a starter?
He did, but he essentially didn't play in two games and then shared reps with JT Daniels in a few other games. Remember JT Daniels was named the starter out of fall camp, and there was a good bit of back and forth through the season.
quote:
Especially since Georgia will play a pretty weak schedule and will likely pound the ball a ton and have a big lead late, leading to fewer passing attempts.
While the schedule is weak, the health of the RB room is questionable. I think the Dawgs will pass a little more out of necessity than they otherwise would.
quote:
I mean he could do it but I wouldn't say it's reasonable to expect a first-time starter to throw for 250 yards per game.
That's only 10 yards per game more than KJ Jefferson passed for last year. Beck has NFL arm talent, so I can't imagine he'll pass for less than that.
Posted on 8/21/23 at 9:25 am to meansonny
Looking at 2021... if you combine Stet and JT Daniels stats, they had 3600 yards over 15 games. 240 yards per game.
I think 240 per game is a reasonable place to think Beck might land (or Beck + whoever if time gets split).
I think 240 per game is a reasonable place to think Beck might land (or Beck + whoever if time gets split).
Posted on 8/21/23 at 9:29 am to DawginSC
quote:
Beck came in for UGA and averaged 9 yards per passing attempt and completed 75% of his pass attempts, with a big chunk of that against top 25 opponents
I guess I just don't view garbage time reps in games where Georgia is up 40 points as a great indicator of anything really.
Posted on 8/21/23 at 9:38 am to so_comfort
quote:
It's not unreasonable to expect Beck to throw for 250 yards a game. That's 25 less than Stetson did last year.
Here is stetson's game log from 2021, beginning with Arkansas since he was still splitting with JT prior to then. Also included is UAB in week 2, since he did start that game with JT hurt
UAB- 288
Arkansas- 72
AU- 231
UK- 250
UF- 161
Mizz- 255
UT- 213
CSU- 105
GT -255
AL-340
MI- 313
AL- 224
That's an average of 203 YPG prior to the postseason. Adding in those 3 games it's a total of 226 YPG.
There will be some games where we have to keep the pedal down and Beck could go over 300. There will be others where the game is over early and he porbably has 150 or less. Looking at this game log Steton only had 3 games in the regular season that he threw for north of 250 yards.
Posted on 8/21/23 at 9:42 am to Demosthenian
NASCAR Dawg's biggest concern this season
Posted on 8/21/23 at 9:53 am to DawginSC
quote:
First let's look at the coach side of it. The fact is the OC who has the record for the most points per game scored in UGA history is not Todd Monken. It's Mike Bobo. While there will be differences in play calling, if we're using history at UGA to judge who will be better, the evidence points to Bobo.
That being said, Bobo has had stumbles at other places in the SEC. I could very well see some play calling that might be worse in certain scenarios. But there will likely also be some that works better.
There is an issue to judging OCs as playcallers.
The ultimate judgment lies in if we won the game.
Bobo was a top3 OC in the SEC.
But our scoring defense was not.
2009 ranked 10th in conference
2010 ranked 5th in conference
2011 ranked 6th in conference
2012 ranked 6th in conference
2013 ranked 10th in conference
2014 ranked 5th in conference
The second judge of an OC is if we score points.
The idea being that a good playcall results in 1st downs and TDs.
And bad playcalling results in punts and field goals.
The reality is that athletes win plays.
A bad playcall with Todd Gurley can turn into a first down.
A bad playcall with Brock Bowers can turn into an explosive gain.
And respectively, a good playcall with a poor effort on the OL can turn into a sack, tackle for loss, or turnover.
Bobo did not have an elite OL back in his first stint as OC. That will help protect his good playcalls. Having Brock Bowers, Dom Lovett, Arian Smith, and Ladd McConkey will also help.
The valid question is how Carson Beck executes plays on 3rd down and in the red zone. Stetson was below average in 2021. Stetson was elite in 2022.
Posted on 8/21/23 at 9:56 am to SidewalkTiger
quote:
I guess I just don't view garbage time reps in games where Georgia is up 40 points as a great indicator of anything really.
The thing is Beck got his reps against opposing teams starters on defense.
Yes, UGA was up by large margins. But Beck was often entering the game midway through the 3rd quarter with a huge lead where the other team hadn't put reserves in yet but UGA had. He effectively was protected by a second team OL and running with second team offensive weapons against the opposing first team defense.
Most of the time when the opposing team was swapping to their reserves, UGA was putting their 3rd string in.
Against SC Beck threw a 28 yard TD pass to UGA's then 4th string TE (Oscar Delp) with 6 minutes to go in the 3rd and SC still running starters. He was out of the game with 9 minutes to go in the 4th... UGA's 3rd string QB took over from there.
Posted on 8/21/23 at 10:01 am to meansonny
eta: sorry I misread
This post was edited on 8/21/23 at 10:02 am
Posted on 8/21/23 at 10:02 am to WG_Dawg
Cfbstats on my phone.
Charting year by year scoring defense in the SEC.
I'm multitasking (on conference call). So it may not be perfect.
Charting year by year scoring defense in the SEC.
I'm multitasking (on conference call). So it may not be perfect.
Posted on 8/21/23 at 10:06 am to WG_Dawg
quote:
WG_Dawg
Some things to keep in mind about the '21 offense vs. the '23 offense are just how young the '21 group was at WR/TE and how much better and more experienced the '23 group is at OL.
Remember Pickens got hurt in the spring, so he missed the entire regular season leaving true FR Brock Bowers to be the leading pass catcher with FR Ladd McConkey as the third option.
Beck has much better options at WR and TE this year if you just count Ladd and Bowers being two years more experienced. Also, the interior OL is light years ahead with Van Pran, Ratledge, and Truss. And while the tackle spots are less experienced Mims is a top ten draft pick kinda guy and Greene/Blaske will be fine at LT.
This post was edited on 8/21/23 at 10:15 am
Posted on 8/21/23 at 10:52 am to Demosthenian
My only concern is how hot all these noon kickoffs will be.
Posted on 8/21/23 at 11:05 am to GainesvilleDawg
quote:
My only concern is how hot all these noon kickoffs will be.
We do always have a ton of nooners. For this year there is an absolute worst case max of 6 nooners that I see, so I'd guesstimate we have 4 of them.
Posted on 8/21/23 at 12:02 pm to so_comfort
Beck's best friend
Posted on 8/21/23 at 1:06 pm to SidewalkTiger
quote:
It's wild that you're so big of a homer that you can't even admit that Beck is an absolute question mark right now
Cover 3 Podcast: Carson Beck is Chip Pattersons dark horse Heisman candidate
5:20 Chip Patterson picks Beck as the Heisman darkhorse (not his Heisman pick... but the QB in the middle of the national championship hunt with a downfield passing game should be a contender).
Bud Elliott confirms that UGA did not test any transfer portal options.
Posted on 8/21/23 at 1:23 pm to SidewalkTiger
quote:
guess I just don't view garbage time reps in games where Georgia is up 40 points as a great indicator of anything really.
You would be howling if he sucked in those reps.
Now respond to this, A or B?
So how do we analyze the question?
1. Start with what he has done when he has played = very good.
2. Consider the supporting cast = Brock bowers. Ladd. Lovett. 4 NFL OL IN THE 2024 draft.
3. Consider the OC = Remember the UGA win over Lsu in 2008? In 2013? 2005? 2004? So many points.
Bobo did that with richt talent and development.
Now he has Kirby talent and development.
Do the math. What is the logical assumption?
A. Success. Yards. Points. Wins
Or
B. FAILURE. Sacks. INT. Punts.
“Same as it ever was”?
Or NOT?
This post was edited on 8/21/23 at 1:28 pm
Posted on 8/21/23 at 1:40 pm to djsdawg
quote:
You would be howling if he sucked in those reps.
Actually, no.
I'd feel about the same about as I do now.
quote:
Now respond to this, A or B?
So how do we analyze the question?
1. Start with what he has done when he has played = very good.
2. Consider the supporting cast = Brock bowers. Ladd. Lovett. 4 NFL OL IN THE 2024 draft.
3. Consider the OC = Remember the UGA win over Lsu in 2008? In 2013? 2005? 2004? So many points.
Bobo did that with richt talent and development.
Now he has Kirby talent and development.
Do the math. What is the logical assumption?
A. Success. Yards. Points. Wins
Or
B. FAILURE. Sacks. INT. Punts.
“Same as it ever was”?
Or NOT?
I say it will be somewhere in the middle just because there's nothing to judge him from, he will likely be a solid game manager but I don't expect him to throw for 4k yards and 40 touchdowns.
That's not to say he can't, dude may win the Heisman this year, I have no clue.
Posted on 8/21/23 at 2:03 pm to OU Guy
I can handle humor. It’s stupid remarks from a fan of a school that tolerated and even celebrated a messed up guy like Mayfield that I have issues with.
Posted on 8/21/23 at 2:16 pm to SidewalkTiger
quote:
Actually, no. I'd feel about the same about as I do now.
So don’t talk up your back up qb against UGA.
You think backup PT is worthless.
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