Started By
Message
Torvik Efficiency Ratings over the last 8 weeks - 11 of the top 12 are all in the Sweet 16
Posted on 3/24/25 at 10:49 am
Posted on 3/24/25 at 10:49 am
The only one who isn't is Gonzaga, and they had to play the #2 team and lost by two possessions.
Sweet 16 Projections based on the last 8 weeks of performance
Alabama - 94
BYU - 91
Florida - 79
Maryland - 76
Duke - 84
Arizona - 77
Texas Tech - 79
Arkansas - 74
Tennessee - 75
Kentucky - 73
Michigan State - 74
Ole Miss - 70
Auburn - 79
Michigan - 72
Houston - 73
Purdue - 64
Sweet 16 Projections based on the last 8 weeks of performance
Alabama - 94
BYU - 91
Florida - 79
Maryland - 76
Duke - 84
Arizona - 77
Texas Tech - 79
Arkansas - 74
Tennessee - 75
Kentucky - 73
Michigan State - 74
Ole Miss - 70
Auburn - 79
Michigan - 72
Houston - 73
Purdue - 64
This post was edited on 3/24/25 at 10:53 am
2
Posted on 3/24/25 at 10:51 am to SummerOfGeorge
Gonzaga got screwed with that 8 seed.
Posted on 3/24/25 at 10:51 am to BigBro
quote:
Gonzaga got screwed with that 8 seed.
Not really because they didn't actually win any games. Their resume wasn't very good, but they were playing good basketball. Lost like 7 games by 2 possessions or less against good teams.
Posted on 3/24/25 at 11:53 am to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
Not really because they didn't actually win any games. Their resume wasn't very good, but they were playing good basketball. Lost like 7 games by 2 possessions or less against good teams.
I don't follow basketball that much, so this methodology may be flawed, but it seems to work for 90% of the Top 8 seeds.
The highlighted 4 teams have a difference greater than 2 (either way) from the grouped seed based on the average of the NET, ELO & RPI.
Just looking at Gonzaga..
NET 8
RPI 23
ELO 16
All three of those rankings are a 6 seed or higher.
So yeah, I don't agree with your opinion.
But I also may be wrong..
Posted on 3/24/25 at 12:01 pm to BigBro
quote:
NET 8
RPI 23
ELO 16
NET is heavily weighted to efficiency metrics, which Gonzaga was great
RPI isn't used
ELO is definitely part the equation, but basketball is usually split between ELO/Wins Above Bubble (overall resume) and big wins/bad losses. Their ELO/WAB was somewhere in the #6/7 seed range, but their Quad win sheet had almost nothing on it.
1-3 vs Q1A
5-6 vs Q1
5-3 vs Q2
10-9 vs Q1/2
15-0 vs Q3/4
Saint Mary's was a 7 seed, right above them
2-1 vs Q1A
5-3 vs Q1
6-2 vs Q2
11-5 vs Q1/2
17-0 vs Q3/4
Marquette was a 7
2-5 vs Q1A
6-8 vs Q1
7-2 vs Q2
13-10 vs Q1/2
10-0 vs Q3/4
Kansas was a 7
4-9 vs Q1A
6-11 vs Q1
7-1 vs Q2
13-12 vs Q1/2
8-0 vs Q3/4
Posted on 3/24/25 at 12:03 pm to SummerOfGeorge
I like my way better. I think I'll write a letter to the committee.
I'm kidding, but I just think it's strange that my simple way gets 28 of the 32 teams right..
+/- 2 from the Seed Grouping where you can adjust for those other things..
At the end of the day, I don't really care at all, but I decided to go down the rabbit hole..
Either way.. always like your stuff on here.
I'm kidding, but I just think it's strange that my simple way gets 28 of the 32 teams right..
+/- 2 from the Seed Grouping where you can adjust for those other things..
At the end of the day, I don't really care at all, but I decided to go down the rabbit hole..
Either way.. always like your stuff on here.
This post was edited on 3/24/25 at 12:06 pm
Posted on 3/24/25 at 12:05 pm to BigBro
Posted on 3/24/25 at 1:29 pm to BigBro
So St. Mary's was actually underseeded based on this data and should have been a 4 or 5 seed?
Posted on 3/24/25 at 1:35 pm to BigBro
quote:
Gonzaga got screwed with that 8 seed.
more like: Georgia got screwed with Gonzaga getting the 8 seed
Posted on 3/24/25 at 1:43 pm to TheTideMustRoll
4 or 5 would have been a better seed imo
Were they better or worse than you expected? I didn't see the game.
Were they better or worse than you expected? I didn't see the game.
Posted on 3/24/25 at 1:44 pm to WG_Dawg
quote:
more like: Georgia got screwed with Gonzaga getting the 8 seed
Well yes, this is true as well..
Posted on 3/24/25 at 1:46 pm to BigBro
The metrics -- especially when filtered for recency since some teams improve a lot over the season -- do a much better job of identifying the teams "playing better right now".
However, the committee makes an effort to look at the complete season and also reward quality wins in their seeding.
So, a talented Gonzaga team that fell just short a bit too often in high profile games or a BYU that turned on the lights mid-season are much tougher than their seeds.
But, it's also a conscious choice by the committee to not just seed as a "current power/upside ranking".
Posted on 3/24/25 at 1:54 pm to SummerOfGeorge
Where does Michigan rank?
Posted on 3/24/25 at 2:13 pm to BigBro
quote:
Were they better or worse than you expected?
Not as good as I expected, but I think a lot of that was due to: 1. We came out super focused on defense and rebounding after the abysmal performance against Robert Morris and it showed, and 2. For the most part we were able to push the play at our pace rather than let them slow us down, and when they did force us into long offensive possessions we didn't get rattled but kept moving the ball and looking for a good shot. Honestly I think we were just a really bad matchup for them.
Posted on 3/24/25 at 2:59 pm to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
Saint Mary's was a 7 seed, right above them
2-1 vs Q1A
5-3 vs Q1
6-2 vs Q2
11-5 vs Q1/2
17-0 vs Q3/4
St. Mary's definitely comes across as underseeded.
Posted on 3/24/25 at 3:02 pm to auburn32
quote:
Where does Michigan rank?
#31 overall (71 off, 9 def)
13-4 (8-4)
The reason for that is they won 11 of those 13 games by 6 pts or less, a bunch of them against very average teams, and got blasted in 3 of their 4 losses (13 and 17 pt losses to Michigan State, 20 pt loss to Illinois).
- 4 pt win vs Penn St
- 3 pt win @ Rutgers
- 4 pt win vs Oregon
- 3 pt win @ Indiana
- 2 pt win vs Purdue
- 3 pt win @ Ohio State
- 3 pt win @ Nebraska
- 2 pt win vs Rutgers
- 18 pt win vs Purdue (B1GT)
- 1 pt win vs Maryland (B1GT)
- 6 pt win vs Wisconsin (B1GT)
- 3 pt win vs UCSD (NCAAT)
- 12 pt win vs TAMU (NCAAT)
- 13 pt loss vs Michigan St
- 20 pt loss to Illinois
- 6 pt loss to Maryland
- 17 pt loss @ Michigan State
Posted on 3/24/25 at 3:07 pm to SummerOfGeorge
Remaining 16 teams ranked by how they've played the last 6 weeks
This post was edited on 3/24/25 at 3:09 pm
Posted on 3/24/25 at 5:46 pm to SummerOfGeorge
Apparently Pope dropped some quotes about some Torvik stats on the radio show today.
Posted on 3/24/25 at 5:55 pm to WG_Dawg
quote:
more like: Georgia got screwed with Gonzaga getting the 8 seed
Y'all didn't get screwed. They gangbanged you.
Posted on 3/24/25 at 6:01 pm to BigBro
quote:
Gonzaga got screwed with that 8 seed.
No. They won the Computer Tricker National Championship this season.
Page 1 of 2
Popular
Back to top
Follow SECRant for SEC Football News