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Posted on 10/16/24 at 11:11 pm to AGGIES
quote:
Hmm. It was 3 points yesterday. Maybe some news on UGA being down a player?
No, just a ton of action on the Texas side earlier today. Enough in a span of two hours that it moved from -3.5 to -5. I don't like it and don't carry such confidence but believe this is the type of game won along the line of scrimmage and which defense can affect the opposing QB first.
I don't know enough about UGA's roster but have read their injuries are significant enough from the start of this season, with their starting center out, 2nd string center out, starting right guard out, starting inside linebacker out, 2nd string running back out, 3rd string running back out, starting wideout dismissed, 2nd string wideout suspended, starting DE: limited to 11 snaps.
This post was edited on 10/17/24 at 8:36 am
Posted on 10/17/24 at 6:06 am to Eldodroptop
We talking about betting or actually winning the game?
Posted on 10/17/24 at 6:11 am to aTmTexas Dillo
Point spread. Vegas has moved the line from Texas as a 3.5 favorite to a 5 point favorite.
Posted on 10/17/24 at 6:34 am to Gravy_Train
quote:
defence
What kind of Eurotrash bullshite is this? You're in Austin to watch Formula One, aren't you?
Posted on 10/17/24 at 6:44 am to Eldodroptop
I’ve always considered home field advantage as a 7 point swing to them home team in sec games. If this is correct, then this game is a near toss up except for the home field advantage.
Posted on 10/17/24 at 7:08 am to Eldodroptop
Seems low to me. The 3.5 was basically a pick 'em with a home field advantage for Texas. I "think" (feel is a better term LOL) that UT has a proven body of work, compared to UGAs, and UTs is, in my opinion, at least a TD better at home. Should be a good game. Has serious SEC CG implications for UGA, not so much for UT. The loser will still be in playoff contention (UGA less so than UT). Pretty good chance that, with a UGA win, the 2 teams meet again. Unless of course Alabama wins out, which is extremely possible despite their recent games. A loss by UGA almost certainly knocks UGA out of the SEC CG and makes UGAs path to the playoff razor thin. Still a lot of meat on the schedule for UGA and 3 losses is on the bubble as improved as Notre Dame is. This is the kind of stuff CFB fans dream about! GO DAWGS!!!!
Posted on 10/17/24 at 11:45 am to BevoBucks
quote:
Not having Mondon for this one is huge. He’s a veteran presence and a stud.
He's good, for sure. What is so amazing to me is that Texas lost 2 top RBs before the season started and are still playing at a high level. It's hard for teams that face Texas to complain about injuries after what y'all have done.
Posted on 10/17/24 at 11:48 am to Eldodroptop
I put my standard bet down on TX minus 3.5 and it moved the line. Sorry.
Posted on 10/17/24 at 11:57 am to SquatchDawg
Link to Data: BCF Toys - Points Per Drive
Why does this matter?
The following chart shows where the National Champ finished each year since 2007.
Texas NPD should decrease as our competition increases, so we are still an unknown, but something appears to be different this year in Athens.
This post was edited on 10/17/24 at 12:15 pm
Posted on 10/17/24 at 3:30 pm to HTX Horn
quote:Texas Red Zone scoring in 2024:
And Texas has struggled scoring red zone TDs (going back to last year and OU game last week).
Touch Downs 79%
Field Goals 9%
No Score 12%
Scoring TD's 79% of the time is not really struggling.
Posted on 10/17/24 at 4:11 pm to BigBro
quote:
but something appears to be different this year in Athens.
Well yeah….its called a bunch of dudes on last year’s team are now playing on Sundays.
Posted on 10/17/24 at 4:22 pm to SquatchDawg
quote:
Well yeah….its called a bunch of dudes on last year’s team are now playing on Sundays.
While true, that has been true every year with Kirby's teams.
Only 8 got drafted last year.
10 the year before
15 the year before
9 the year before
But I do agree that Bowers & McConkey were big losses on offense.. as were the 3 defensive backs.
But maybe it is simpler than that. Maybe it is just QB play.
Stetson 2021 > Stetson 2022 > Beck 2023 > Beck 2024
And because of the QB play, the defense is on the field more and therefore, giving up more points.
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