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Statistical Game Preview: Louisiana State vs Mississippi State
Posted on 10/15/18 at 10:23 am
Posted on 10/15/18 at 10:23 am
Preface:
I usually only do this for Texas A&M and its opponent.
This puts Team 1s Offense Stats versus Team 2s Defense Stats and vice versa.
Blue = Top 25 in statistical category
Red = Bottom 30 in Statistical category
The "advantage" means that one team is ranked 20+ spots higher in the national ranking for that statistical category.
The Formulas at the bottom are based loosely on statistical predictive analysis used in sales / inventory forecasting, but incorporates the following variables: points per yard, +/- % versus opposing teams played Offense & Defense, turnover margins, homefield advantage, and Las Vegas line (-6.5 LSU for this game), plus a few others...
I don't track my record over time, but I did go back a couple of years ago and found that I was about 75-80% accurate on the win prediction and about 55-60% accurate versus the spread. I don't condone betting, so use this at your own risk - your money is yours do with as you please, but I won't be held liable for your choices.
I usually only do this for Texas A&M and its opponent.
This puts Team 1s Offense Stats versus Team 2s Defense Stats and vice versa.
Blue = Top 25 in statistical category
Red = Bottom 30 in Statistical category
The "advantage" means that one team is ranked 20+ spots higher in the national ranking for that statistical category.
The Formulas at the bottom are based loosely on statistical predictive analysis used in sales / inventory forecasting, but incorporates the following variables: points per yard, +/- % versus opposing teams played Offense & Defense, turnover margins, homefield advantage, and Las Vegas line (-6.5 LSU for this game), plus a few others...
I don't track my record over time, but I did go back a couple of years ago and found that I was about 75-80% accurate on the win prediction and about 55-60% accurate versus the spread. I don't condone betting, so use this at your own risk - your money is yours do with as you please, but I won't be held liable for your choices.
This post was edited on 10/15/18 at 10:26 am
32
Posted on 10/15/18 at 10:25 am to SpreadsheetAg
Very appropriate handle baw. And excellent work putting this together 
Posted on 10/15/18 at 10:26 am to SpreadsheetAg
Yeah it wont be close
Posted on 10/15/18 at 10:26 am to SpreadsheetAg
good shite. 
Posted on 10/15/18 at 10:27 am to SpreadsheetAg
Good Stuff.
Posted on 10/15/18 at 10:27 am to SpreadsheetAg
That really is impressive
Posted on 10/15/18 at 10:28 am to SpreadsheetAg
Should make for an interesting game
Posted on 10/15/18 at 10:28 am to SpreadsheetAg
Nice work Aggy Baw!
You should do this more often, if you had the time
You should do this more often, if you had the time
Posted on 10/15/18 at 10:28 am to SpreadsheetAg
I don't see a row calculating the "advantage" of playing in Joe Burrow's house though, baw.
Call Gary Danielson, he can back me up on this one.
Call Gary Danielson, he can back me up on this one.
Posted on 10/15/18 at 10:29 am to SpreadsheetAg
Your presentation is beautiful. Bookmarking to look into the numbers when I have time.
Posted on 10/15/18 at 10:38 am to SpreadsheetAg
Damn, great job man. Wanna come do my spreadsheets for me?
Posted on 10/15/18 at 10:41 am to SpreadsheetAg
quote:
SpreadsheetAg
I'll bet you an Abita Beverage of your choice that setting you in front of SQL Server or SSRS with some dB's and asking for some data analysis is like watching fricking Beethoven sit down at a piano and play a few licks...
This post was edited on 10/15/18 at 10:42 am
Posted on 10/15/18 at 10:43 am to SpreadsheetAg
Whoa. This is awesome.
Posted on 10/15/18 at 1:22 pm to GRTiger
Thanks!
I like to present the data so that we are talking apples to apples with visitors to our boards
I like to present the data so that we are talking apples to apples with visitors to our boards
Posted on 10/15/18 at 1:56 pm to SpreadsheetAg
quote:
I like to present the data so that we are talking apples to apples with visitors to our boards
you haven't been on the SECrant much, have you? Like the info though, keep them coming
This post was edited on 10/15/18 at 1:57 pm
Posted on 10/15/18 at 2:08 pm to SpreadsheetAg
FYI SpreadsheetAg is a legend. Dude's method is pretty spot on.
Posted on 10/15/18 at 2:18 pm to Mr Shickadance
quote:
FYI SpreadsheetAg is a legend. Dude's method is pretty spot on.
Big Faxxx.
Posted on 10/15/18 at 2:18 pm to SpreadsheetAg
It looks like the defenses have the advantage.
Posted on 10/15/18 at 2:23 pm to SpreadsheetAg
Holy shite. Nicely done.
Posted on 10/15/18 at 2:28 pm to SpreadsheetAg
quote:well, there is the sos factor that isn't completely present in the stats. auburn and fla are a wash. other than that, lsu has clearly played a tougher schedule, has a better record and was quite impressive against #3 uga.
apples to apples
in conference games, lsu is #3 in total offense whereas state is dead last. both are nearly equal defensively in conference games.
lsu is #5 in passing offense in conference games whereas state is #1 in passing defense. something to watch. however, lsu is #1 in rushing against state's #5 rushing defense. lsu's o line is getting healthy and finally there is a stable starting 5. this doesn't bode well for state. if lsu follows form, they will still be balanced but should be able to control the clock. the difference usually starts to emerge in the 4th.
lsu is #1 in red zone conversions in conference play whereas state is #1 in red zone defense. that will be interesting. something has to give.
state's d has the advantage in 3rd down conversions against lsu's o.
espn's fpi has lsu's o efficiency at #20, stat's d effeciency at #20. on the other side of the ball, lsu is #11 in d efficiency whereas state is #33 in d efficiency. this usually means lsu's o will wear eventually wear down state's d.
i think the major takeaways are that if state gets behind, that's curtains. they will probably struggle passing against lsu. lsu is probably going to again settle for fg's in the red zone.
i see a low scoring game with the lsu run game having success midway through the 4th. lsu is due for an emotional letdown after the huge win.
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