Started By
Message
re: SOG Model SEC Football Picks o' the Week brought to you by Jefferson Pilot Sports
Posted on 11/12/21 at 12:44 pm to Farmer1906
Posted on 11/12/21 at 12:44 pm to Farmer1906
quote:
The model is not factoring in the progression that happens in a season. Players gel. Things click. Guys get healthy. I wouldn't expect some fun statical model to have this because how the hell would you quantify it on a large scale. But this is the kind of qualitative data that takes a good quanitative model and kicks it up a notch Emeril style.
The same thing happens in the opposite direct too. Injuries, lack of depth, in the middle of killer run in the schedule, etc.
I totally agree. If I had the means, I'd factor up recent games and results over prior ones. It's just not something that my perusing between excel spreadsheets can really tack on
.
1
Posted on 11/12/21 at 12:46 pm to SummerOfGeorge
Actually about to do an update - I made an adjustment and it didn't change a whole lot but it flipped the A&M score.
Posted on 11/12/21 at 1:06 pm to SummerOfGeorge
SoG is giving into the online pressures. Compromising his model. Taking backdoor bribes.
Posted on 11/12/21 at 1:06 pm to Farmer1906
quote:
SoG is giving into the online pressures. Compromising his model. Taking backdoor bribes.
The "special relationship" means something
Posted on 11/12/21 at 1:15 pm to SummerOfGeorge
How accurate has this been so far this season?
Posted on 11/12/21 at 1:16 pm to RebelExpress38
quote:
How accurate has this been so far this season?
Like 40% on spread, little over 50% on O/U. I've messed with the inputs some, too (for a few years now). It's fun, I like it, I would not bet with it
As I said above - the yardage and yards per play are generally very accurate. It's just not always easy to use that and equate it to points or even # of plays run.
This post was edited on 11/12/21 at 1:18 pm
Posted on 11/12/21 at 1:17 pm to SummerOfGeorge
So fade SOG model, got it
Posted on 11/12/21 at 1:17 pm to RebelExpress38
quote:
So fade SOG model, got it
Posted on 11/12/21 at 1:18 pm to SummerOfGeorge
Unlike Auburn, A&M struggled mightily against Arky's umbrella coverage. You're saying Ole Miss plays the same style. 3-down linemen and yet manage to be number 1 in sacks in the SEC...a lot of coverage sacks. Also number 1 in interceptions.
It being an away game, I'm not sure Calzada will handle the mental side of the game. Jimbo better establish the run game early and run the ball often. Keep that high octane Ole Miss O on the sideline.
If Calzada is forced to play "hero ball", scramble out of pocket and make throws to receivers he might have multiple INTs in this game. Smith and Wydermeyer better catch all the catchable balls thrown to them.
I'm hoping Jimbo is able to lean on the run game and run out the clock on Ole Miss.
It being an away game, I'm not sure Calzada will handle the mental side of the game. Jimbo better establish the run game early and run the ball often. Keep that high octane Ole Miss O on the sideline.
If Calzada is forced to play "hero ball", scramble out of pocket and make throws to receivers he might have multiple INTs in this game. Smith and Wydermeyer better catch all the catchable balls thrown to them.
I'm hoping Jimbo is able to lean on the run game and run out the clock on Ole Miss.
Posted on 11/12/21 at 1:21 pm to SummerOfGeorge
Just FYI - if you only use the data from the last 4 weeks (A&M Alabama forward and Ole Miss Tennessee forward, since Corral got hurt and lost his WRs)
Posted on 11/12/21 at 1:27 pm to SummerOfGeorge
I think the biggest pain point for ole Miss won’t even be WRs, we have a defensive tackle playing O Line
Our run game has sucked lately and it’s because half our O Line is out and the other half aren’t in their natural position.
Our run game has sucked lately and it’s because half our O Line is out and the other half aren’t in their natural position.
Posted on 11/12/21 at 1:28 pm to RebelExpress38
quote:
Our run game has sucked lately and it’s because half our O Line is out and the other half aren’t in their natural position.
That sounds familiar...
Posted on 11/12/21 at 1:30 pm to RebelExpress38
quote:
Our run game has sucked lately and it’s because half our O Line is out and the other half aren’t in their natural position.
I hope everyone is back healthy for your bowl game.
Posted on 11/12/21 at 1:31 pm to SummerOfGeorge
Posted on 11/12/21 at 1:38 pm to SummerOfGeorge
If we only score 33 on Tennessee, something has gone incredibly awry.
Posted on 11/12/21 at 1:44 pm to VoxDawg
quote:
If we only score 33 on Tennessee, something has gone incredibly awry.
I think a lot of that will have to do with the tempo of the game. Tennessee gave up 42 to Kentucky, but Kentucky also ran 99 plays - mainly because Tennessee kept scoring so quickly and giving the ball back to Kentucky. Tennessee may hit 1-2 big plays, but I'm guessing the TOP will be much more normal in this game between Georgia's defense and the way Georgia plays offense.
Tennessee held Ole Miss to 31 and Alabama was at 38 mid-way through the 4th before a pick 6 and a failed 4th down from Tennessee at their own 30 that was turned into 7. And last weekend was the first time Georgia has broken 40 points since the Vanderbilt game (37 vs Arkansas, 34 @ Auburn, 30 vs Kentucky, 34 vs Florida). The only 3 games they've broken 40 in SEC play are the 3 worst teams in the conference (Vandy, USC, Mizzou).
I wouldn't be shocked to see Georgia score 40, but if they controlled the game and scored 35 that would seem like a pretty solid and reasonable result (assuming Tennessee isn't scoring a bunch, which I don't think many expect).
This post was edited on 11/12/21 at 1:48 pm
Page 3 of 3
Back to top
Follow SECRant for SEC Football News