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Posted on 10/20/24 at 2:48 pm to BigSneezy
Vegas opening lines (and closing lines for that matter) aren't about accurately picking the outcome/score of the game.
The lines are about predicting where the money will be bet by the participating gamblers. You really shouldn't take much more from vegas spreads than that.
What was the line for us against Miss St? 21 points right before the game started? Not rational, imo, but that's where the money was landing.
The lines are about predicting where the money will be bet by the participating gamblers. You really shouldn't take much more from vegas spreads than that.
What was the line for us against Miss St? 21 points right before the game started? Not rational, imo, but that's where the money was landing.
Posted on 10/20/24 at 2:51 pm to Daowna
quote:
aren't about accurately picking the outcome/score of the game. The lines are about predicting where the money will be bet by the participating gamblers. You really shouldn't take much more from vegas spreads than that. What was the line for us against Miss St? 21 points right before the game started? Not rational, imo, but that's where the money was landing.
I’m not. I’m just saying Cajuns should bet the farm. I would give LSU at least 3 points. It’s more likely they beat us by a field goal than the other way around. A&M will have to play their best game of their season to even make it close.
Posted on 10/20/24 at 2:52 pm to ATXMike
Bad take. I don’t think anyone can take you seriously
Posted on 10/20/24 at 2:52 pm to ATXMike
quote:
No there's worse. Losing to USC in front of a national audience
Quit melting in a civil thread. There are many other threads for you to melt in.
Posted on 10/20/24 at 2:53 pm to UtahCajun
He’s obviously not taking the loss well
Posted on 10/20/24 at 2:54 pm to ATXMike
quote:
No there's worse. Losing to USC in front of a national audience.
No team has ever made substantial improvement between game one and the end of the season. Not one. Ever.
Posted on 10/20/24 at 2:55 pm to Hester Carries
I understand it. We've burned them in the past. Just keep winning and they'll take care of themselves.
Posted on 10/20/24 at 2:56 pm to BigSneezy
With no insult to A&M, who I think has a good team this year, right now LSU is playing as well as anyone in the conference. I could see A&M winning but I'd lean LSU in this one.
Granted, with my luck in picking winners that means LSU fans will now burn me in effigy. Or perhaps not in effigy.
Granted, with my luck in picking winners that means LSU fans will now burn me in effigy. Or perhaps not in effigy.
Posted on 10/20/24 at 3:05 pm to FootballFrenzy
Weaknesses:
Our weakness on defense is 1 on 1 plays vs our safeties over the middle. Like they are straight dookie water in coverage. Major Burns is great in run defense and blitzing the QB, but is arse water in coverage, although he's gotten better over the year. Sage Ryan is better than Burns in coverage, but not by much. Ryan is also probably the worst tackler on the team in run support, 90% of the time he misses an arm tackle and the other 10% of the time he launches himself and literally executes the offensive player. Yall know Jardin Gilbert, he's been from bad to serviceable all year.
Early on misdirection in the run game was an issue for our gap integrity, but that hasn't been a problem for several weeks.
Stengths:
Zy Alexander is one of the best cornerbacks in the country on one side, he was rated #1 through 6 weeks by PFF. Ashton Stamps is the other corner, he's a serviceable SEC corner.
Whit Weeks is very likely the best LB in the SEC and one of the best in the country, he's a game wrecker with a knack for the ball. Even in coverage he's had multiple PBUs and dropped INTs. Gregg Penn is a good SEC LB that is great at tackling and run stuffing.
On one side of the Dline Brayden Swinson is a top 3 best defensive end in the country at sacking the quarterback. He was leading power 4 player in sacks entering the Arkansas game, he didnt register a sacks on Taylon Green, but hit him several times and allowed other players to reach him through his disruptiveness. On the other side you have Savion Jones, he's not as good as Swinson, but is still a top 25 defensive end in college football.
Our DTs are all serviceable, technically sound guys that are plenty capable of collapsing the pocket and sacking the quarterback or stopping the run.
How to beat LSUs defense? Quick, 10-15 yard slants in the middle of the field. Your quarterback will not have many pockets that offer more than 3 seconds of time and our corners are good enough to cover for that amount of time. Quick throws over the middle attacking our safeties is what has worked for everyone.
But our defense has gotten significantly better each week. This is an entirely new defensive staff and group of players. They are moving up the defensive efficiency rankings by 5-10 spots per week, we are now sitting around 35th in the country, we started around 100th. Also, we are only allowing 5 points per game in the second half of the last 5 games, starting at South Carolina.
Our weakness on defense is 1 on 1 plays vs our safeties over the middle. Like they are straight dookie water in coverage. Major Burns is great in run defense and blitzing the QB, but is arse water in coverage, although he's gotten better over the year. Sage Ryan is better than Burns in coverage, but not by much. Ryan is also probably the worst tackler on the team in run support, 90% of the time he misses an arm tackle and the other 10% of the time he launches himself and literally executes the offensive player. Yall know Jardin Gilbert, he's been from bad to serviceable all year.
Early on misdirection in the run game was an issue for our gap integrity, but that hasn't been a problem for several weeks.
Stengths:
Zy Alexander is one of the best cornerbacks in the country on one side, he was rated #1 through 6 weeks by PFF. Ashton Stamps is the other corner, he's a serviceable SEC corner.
Whit Weeks is very likely the best LB in the SEC and one of the best in the country, he's a game wrecker with a knack for the ball. Even in coverage he's had multiple PBUs and dropped INTs. Gregg Penn is a good SEC LB that is great at tackling and run stuffing.
On one side of the Dline Brayden Swinson is a top 3 best defensive end in the country at sacking the quarterback. He was leading power 4 player in sacks entering the Arkansas game, he didnt register a sacks on Taylon Green, but hit him several times and allowed other players to reach him through his disruptiveness. On the other side you have Savion Jones, he's not as good as Swinson, but is still a top 25 defensive end in college football.
Our DTs are all serviceable, technically sound guys that are plenty capable of collapsing the pocket and sacking the quarterback or stopping the run.
How to beat LSUs defense? Quick, 10-15 yard slants in the middle of the field. Your quarterback will not have many pockets that offer more than 3 seconds of time and our corners are good enough to cover for that amount of time. Quick throws over the middle attacking our safeties is what has worked for everyone.
But our defense has gotten significantly better each week. This is an entirely new defensive staff and group of players. They are moving up the defensive efficiency rankings by 5-10 spots per week, we are now sitting around 35th in the country, we started around 100th. Also, we are only allowing 5 points per game in the second half of the last 5 games, starting at South Carolina.
This post was edited on 10/21/24 at 2:35 am
Posted on 10/20/24 at 3:07 pm to Arksulli
LOL.
NUSS Iis on fire right now. And if he’s able to exploit our DBs (biggest weakness) it will be tough. LSU also has found a nice RB too.
I feel like the Ags Can move the ball on the LSU defense.
All that just to say this will be an extremely close game IMO.
NUSS Iis on fire right now. And if he’s able to exploit our DBs (biggest weakness) it will be tough. LSU also has found a nice RB too.
I feel like the Ags Can move the ball on the LSU defense.
All that just to say this will be an extremely close game IMO.
Posted on 10/20/24 at 3:12 pm to Jobu93
quote:
All that just to say this will be an extremely close game IMO.
I could see you winning, but, yeah... I lean LSU in this one. I would say... Arkansas lost in a knife fight to A&M while LSU blew us out... but we could not resist shooting ourselves in the dick against LSU. I don't think A&M will have our meltdown, and I think you will hang in there, but right now LSU looks like they are on fire.
Posted on 10/20/24 at 3:13 pm to Arksulli
I think LSU wins. Possibly handily
Posted on 10/20/24 at 3:16 pm to ColoradoAg
quote:
I think LSU wins. Possibly handily
I think they win too. I think y'all play them closer than we did. But it is concerning they are good in the one area that A&M's defense is weak in.
Posted on 10/20/24 at 3:16 pm to ipodking
quote:
LSU had double digit penalties last night. Most presnap from the crowd noise.
If you were there, you would know it had nothing to do with the noise, because it wasn’t loud. They have to pipe in sound through the speakers to make it any threat. Couple of times it would get instantly quieter, because they are piping in sound through the speakers
This post was edited on 10/20/24 at 3:20 pm
Posted on 10/20/24 at 3:16 pm to Hurricane2020
Thank you very much for the in-depth review, Hurricane2020. 
Posted on 10/20/24 at 3:17 pm to 00 Tech Grad
Because beating Arkansas was an improvement? Doesn't matter. You will lose to A&M and Bama. Probably drop one to Florida or OU.
Posted on 10/20/24 at 3:21 pm to ATXMike
quote:
You will lose to A&M and Bama. Probably drop one to Florida or OU.
Based on what?
Posted on 10/20/24 at 3:22 pm to SidewalkTiger
Why even engage him. He’s still pissed that his team got blown out yesterday.
Posted on 10/20/24 at 3:26 pm to FootballFrenzy
quote:
Haven't you guys only allowed 2 sacks through 7 games, including against Ole Miss' and SCar's DLines?
Yeah, the poster you responded to is pretty uninformed. That matchup is between two really solid units. Would be surprised if it’s not a really competitive game. I really think it comes down to how well Weigman plays. If he’s really good I think it will be tough for LSU to win.
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