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Reddit: Is Joe Burrow Good Now? A statistical look at why he probably still sucks.
Posted on 10/9/19 at 1:21 pm
Posted on 10/9/19 at 1:21 pm
DISCLAIMER: THIS IS NOT MY OPINION
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r/FloridaGators u/DrMartyLawrence
Heading into the Florida-LSU game all the national pundits can't help themselves but gush over LSU's newfound offense, passing coach Joe Brady, and QB Joe Burrow. LSU ranks #3 in Offensive S&P+ and has scored more points through five games than any program in SEC history. But, does this mean that Joe Burrow is good?
When NFL scouts evaluate QB prospects one of the main statistics they look at is career completion percentage. Completion percentage stays relatively constant throughout a QB's career and is thought to reflect the inherent decision making abilities of the QB.
Last season, Joe Burrow finished the year with a completion percentage of 58.7%. This year his completion percentage is up to 78.4%.
Is it possible that Joe Burrow is defying the odds and showing an unprecedented increase in completion percentage all thanks to the game planning of first year passing coach Joe Brady? Probably not. It's more likely that Burrow's impressive numbers stem from playing inferior opponents rather than a drastically improved coaching staff.
The top defense LSU has faced this year per Defensive S&P+ is Utah State (#66). When we look at Joe Burrow's numbers from last year we see a drastic difference in his performance against quality defensive teams (Top 40 Defensive S&P+). In 2018 Joe played 7 quality defenses and 6 shitty defenses. Let take a look at how his career numbers look in the context of opponent quality.
Against the 6 shitty defenses he looked like a great QB. Posting an average stat line of approximately:
17/26 (64%) 255 Yds 2 TDs and 0.2 INTs
Against quality defenses he was a fricking trainwreck. Joe Burrow only has one career game against a quality opponent where he completed more than 60% of his passes (L 25-38 TAMU).
17/32 (53%) 195 YDS 0.6 TDs and 0.6 INTs
Against a quality defense like Florida's (#5 S&P+) look for Joe Burrow to regress. I'd be very surprised if he manages to complete more than 60-65% of his passes.
Gators by 100.
Joe Burrow Stats: LINK
2018 Defensive S&P+: LINK
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r/FloridaGators u/DrMartyLawrence
Heading into the Florida-LSU game all the national pundits can't help themselves but gush over LSU's newfound offense, passing coach Joe Brady, and QB Joe Burrow. LSU ranks #3 in Offensive S&P+ and has scored more points through five games than any program in SEC history. But, does this mean that Joe Burrow is good?
When NFL scouts evaluate QB prospects one of the main statistics they look at is career completion percentage. Completion percentage stays relatively constant throughout a QB's career and is thought to reflect the inherent decision making abilities of the QB.
Last season, Joe Burrow finished the year with a completion percentage of 58.7%. This year his completion percentage is up to 78.4%.
Is it possible that Joe Burrow is defying the odds and showing an unprecedented increase in completion percentage all thanks to the game planning of first year passing coach Joe Brady? Probably not. It's more likely that Burrow's impressive numbers stem from playing inferior opponents rather than a drastically improved coaching staff.
The top defense LSU has faced this year per Defensive S&P+ is Utah State (#66). When we look at Joe Burrow's numbers from last year we see a drastic difference in his performance against quality defensive teams (Top 40 Defensive S&P+). In 2018 Joe played 7 quality defenses and 6 shitty defenses. Let take a look at how his career numbers look in the context of opponent quality.
Against the 6 shitty defenses he looked like a great QB. Posting an average stat line of approximately:
17/26 (64%) 255 Yds 2 TDs and 0.2 INTs
Against quality defenses he was a fricking trainwreck. Joe Burrow only has one career game against a quality opponent where he completed more than 60% of his passes (L 25-38 TAMU).
17/32 (53%) 195 YDS 0.6 TDs and 0.6 INTs
Against a quality defense like Florida's (#5 S&P+) look for Joe Burrow to regress. I'd be very surprised if he manages to complete more than 60-65% of his passes.
Gators by 100.
Joe Burrow Stats: LINK
2018 Defensive S&P+: LINK
This post was edited on 10/9/19 at 1:22 pm
39
Posted on 10/9/19 at 1:22 pm to finchmeister08
frick reddit.
Posted on 10/9/19 at 1:23 pm to finchmeister08
quote:
Against a quality defense like Florida's (#5 S&P+) look for Joe Burrow to regress. I'd be very surprised if he manages to complete more than 60-65% of his passes.
wait...you mean to tell me that a QB won't have similar stats against good and bad defenses?
Posted on 10/9/19 at 1:23 pm to finchmeister08
he is going to light y’all the frick up 
Posted on 10/9/19 at 1:24 pm to finchmeister08
quote:
DrMartyLawrence
Posted on 10/9/19 at 1:24 pm to finchmeister08
Bad QB's are completing 57% of passes against your D
You will be in for a very long night Saturday. Sorry
You will be in for a very long night Saturday. Sorry
Posted on 10/9/19 at 1:25 pm to finchmeister08
You put in a lot of work on this but if it helps you sleep at night.... but your nightmares will start after the game.
Posted on 10/9/19 at 1:25 pm to finchmeister08
No. Joe Burrow sucks and Florida will push LSU's shite in. Believe this. Please.
Posted on 10/9/19 at 1:26 pm to finchmeister08
Good. You can cut and paste. Dumbass.
Posted on 10/9/19 at 1:26 pm to Ed Osteen
65% completion still beats your team. A win is a win
Posted on 10/9/19 at 1:27 pm to tiger chaser
quote:
You put in a lot of work on this
actually, i didn't. i just copied/pasted from reddit. implies that in the title.
Posted on 10/9/19 at 1:27 pm to NorthTxLSU
..Burrow Chase and Jefferson goin in dry buddy..believe dat!Posted on 10/9/19 at 1:27 pm to Nado Jenkins83
quote:Reddit is far too liberal, while this board is far too conservative. I wish there was a board for sane people, but I enjoy both for the most part
frick Reddit
This post was edited on 10/9/19 at 1:36 pm
Posted on 10/9/19 at 1:28 pm to lsuhou74
quote:
Burrow Chase and Jefferson goin in dry buddy..believe dat!
The same 3 that didn’t last year against UF without their starting cornerback?
Posted on 10/9/19 at 1:28 pm to Peepdip
Yep. I'd rather be around far right than middle left though.
Posted on 10/9/19 at 1:29 pm to finchmeister08
DrMarty said that?
Well...frick.
At least Joe will be gone next year.
Well...frick.
At least Joe will be gone next year.
Posted on 10/9/19 at 1:30 pm to finchmeister08
Yeah, he sucks.
UF 42-10
UF 42-10
Posted on 10/9/19 at 1:30 pm to finchmeister08
If you can’t see the difference between his play from last year and this year, I don’t know what to say.
With that said, every year is different. What happened last year means zilch this year. I look forward to a hard fought game.
With that said, every year is different. What happened last year means zilch this year. I look forward to a hard fought game.
Posted on 10/9/19 at 1:31 pm to finchmeister08
quote:
It's more likely that Burrow's impressive numbers stem from playing inferior opponents rather than a drastically improved coaching staff.
Dumbest.shite.ever.
Posted on 10/9/19 at 1:32 pm to finchmeister08
I am actually VERY excited to see 2019 Burrow go against a top 20 defense. It will be fun to watch. I believe that he will do well.
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