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re: Pretend LSU beats Alabama in 2 weeks..
Posted on 10/25/19 at 10:58 am to BHMKyle
Posted on 10/25/19 at 10:58 am to BHMKyle
quote:
So you're saying a team that doesn't win its division would have an argument of getting in over a team that went undefeated and won its Conference Championship?
Then if you think LSU could do it, why would you think Bama couldn't?
Because a 1-loss LSU would have a much stronger resume due to their Texas and Florida wins plus their loss being close and on the road.
Alabama would basically just have a win over fringe Top 25 4-loss Auburn.
Normally I'd say no, no argument, but Clemson's schedule this year will end up being the equivalent of UCF's in 2017. They will and probably should get the benefit of the doubt, but LSU will have such an incredibly stronger resume (even with 1 loss) it won't even be close.
This post was edited on 10/25/19 at 11:00 am
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Posted on 10/25/19 at 10:58 am to BHMKyle
quote:
You know the majority of your fan base would though. The vast majority of Bama fans would say that winning the SEC and having one of its losses to a clear Top 2 team should counteract the fact they had 2 losses.... not to mention their two Top 10 wins vs. the other team's zero.
You know most Bama fans would meltdown over getting left out as SEC Champions.... so don't act like Ohio State didn't have an argument. They did.
Both teams had a legit argument that year and Bama got the benefit of the doubt. That's my entire point. When its a tough decision, Bama gets the nod. They always do.
I agree with George. I would be more upset that we didn't show up against UK. Any team with 2 losses should expect to miss the playoffs and rightfully so.
Posted on 10/25/19 at 10:59 am to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
I truly do not care about what the majority of people would do. The majority of fans would argue for whatever worked out for their team no matter the intellectual hoops it would require.
Kinda like thinking you're entitled to a rematch in a Championship Game against a team that beat you on your home field? That seems like it requires a lot of intellectual hoops, but when it comes to finding a way to get Bama into a playoff, it seems the majority of talking heads figure out how to fit through those hoops.
Posted on 10/25/19 at 11:01 am to BHMKyle
quote:
hey'll use the "eye test" to say Bama is a better team than Clemson and they'll also note Tua wasn't 100% in their loss to LSU (hypothetically speaking) so therefore they should get the benefit of the doubt.
You can see this coming a mile a way. In some ways I hope it happens so it blows up the stupid 4-team playoff. It needs to be 8 teams with the 5 Power Champs guaranteed a spot so this "eye test", otherwise known as Kirk Herbstreit's biased opinion, doesn't hold so much value
There is a <1% chance they would take an 11-1 bama over an undefeated Clemson. It just won’t happen
Posted on 10/25/19 at 11:03 am to BHMKyle
quote:
Kinda like thinking you're entitled to a rematch in a Championship Game against a team that beat you on your home field? That seems like it requires a lot of intellectual hoops, but when it comes to finding a way to get Bama into a playoff, it seems the majority of talking heads figure out how to fit through those hoops.
No, because the goal of the game is to get the 2 best/most deserving teams in the game. If they played earlier in the year so be it. That's irrelevant.
So once you dispatch of the irrelevant argument you can get down to determining who the 2 best teams are. The 2011 Alabama/Oklahoma St argument is a legitimate one and I think there were points on both sides. I'm not too prideful to admit that, nor am I too prideful to say if I were LSU I'd throw my hands in the air.
But just like beating a SEC team in the regular season doesn't mean you cancel the SECCG in lieu of a rematch, the same thing applied here. I'm sure Auburn would have loved that in 2017 themselves, but it isn't how these things work.
This post was edited on 10/25/19 at 11:05 am
Posted on 10/25/19 at 11:05 am to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
Because a 1-loss LSU would have a much stronger resume due to their Texas and Florida wins plus their loss being close and on the road.
Alabama would basically just have a win over fringe Top 25 4-loss Auburn.
You're forgetting about that "eye test" thing. Not to mention all the metrics you reference which would all undoubtedly favor Bama over clemson.
quote:
Normally I'd say no, no argument, but Clemson's schedule this year will end up being the equivalent of UCF's in 2017.
Exactly. Which is why its ridiculous you and everyone else are acting like an 11-1 Bama team would not be in the discussion over a 13-0 Clemson.
Of course Bama fans and the talking heads will say its ridiculous now, but you know as well as me than when the moment comes there would be a gigantic debate and the fact that Clemson would not have a single win over a ranked team.... and because they went to OT with North Carolina.... Bama would end up getting the last spot.
If anyone here were honest they'd just go ahead and admit it. But that's exactly what will happen, and the UCF reference you mentioned will be in everyone's rationale.
Posted on 10/25/19 at 11:06 am to BHMKyle
If LSU wins out, Alabama's best win of the season will have been over 9-3 Auburn. 
Posted on 10/25/19 at 11:07 am to BHMKyle
LSU vs Clemson
OSU vs OU
OSU vs OU
Posted on 10/25/19 at 11:07 am to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
No, because the goal of the game is to get the 2 best/most deserving teams in the game.
Okay. So you think a 13-0 Clemson team without a win over a Top 25 team would be the "best" team available for that 4th spot when Alabama is sitting at 11-1 with a very close loss to LSU?
Posted on 10/25/19 at 11:08 am to LSU Patrick
quote:
If LSU wins out, Alabama's best win of the season will have been over 9-3 Auburn.
Similar to their 2017 resume
Posted on 10/25/19 at 11:09 am to BHMKyle
quote:
You're forgetting about that "eye test" thing. Not to mention all the metrics you reference which would all undoubtedly favor Bama over clemson.
But they'd favor LSU a lot more. And to actually pull the trigger on something like this it would have to be astronomically different in terms of resumes.
quote:
Exactly. Which is why its ridiculous you and everyone else are acting like an 11-1 Bama team would not be in the discussion over a 13-0 Clemson.
But Alabama's not going to have any wins if we lose to LSU. The gap won't be big enough.
LSU would have a significant gap with Clemson AND their only loss would be a very close road loss to Alabama.
All that combined would give 11-1 LSU much more of a shot than 11-1 Alabama.
quote:
Of course Bama fans and the talking heads will say its ridiculous now, but you know as well as me than when the moment comes there would be a gigantic debate and the fact that Clemson would not have a single win over a ranked team
But I'm not sure we'd have a win over a ranked team either. Our schedule would be better, but we wouldn't have enough juice in it to truly create a controversy.
LSU would.
Posted on 10/25/19 at 11:10 am to craigbiggio
quote:
Similar to their 2017 resume
The 2017 resume had to beat out a 2 loss Ohio State team. This one would have to beat out a 12-0, defending national champion Clemson team.
Not the same
Posted on 10/25/19 at 11:10 am to LSU Patrick
quote:
If LSU wins out, Alabama's best win of the season will have been over 9-3 Auburn
Yes. And in 2017, Alabama's best win was over 9-3 LSU (who had a loss to Troy) yet they didn't win their division and got a final playoff spot ahead of a BIG 10 Champ that had two wins over Top 10 teams.
It happened then it can happen again.
Posted on 10/25/19 at 11:11 am to BHMKyle
quote:
Okay. So you think a 13-0 Clemson team without a win over a Top 25 team would be the "best" team available for that 4th spot when Alabama is sitting at 11-1 with a very close loss to LSU?
I'm guessing the metrics that decided 2011 (BCS) would probably tell you Clemson is not. I do not think the humans would pull the trigger.
Posted on 10/25/19 at 11:12 am to BHMKyle
quote:
BIG 10 Champ that had two wins over Top 10 teams.
And 2 losses, including a 30 point loss to a 5 loss Iowa team.
It's just not the same thing at all, in perception or reality. But even more so in perception.
This post was edited on 10/25/19 at 11:13 am
Posted on 10/25/19 at 11:20 am to BHMKyle
An undefeated reining National Champion (NO Matter how crappy their schedule) will ALWAYS get in over ANY one loss team, especially one that doesn't win their conference And it will be GLORIOUS to watch the self-entitled Gumps melt down when that happens!!
Posted on 10/25/19 at 11:32 am to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
But I'm not sure we'd have a win over a ranked team either. Our schedule would be better, but we wouldn't have enough juice in it to truly create a controversy.
As long as Auburn doesn't lose to Ole Miss or Samford, they'll be in the final Top 25. At worst they'd be 8-4 with a win over Oregon. They'll also likely be a slight favorite to beat Georgia at this point since the game is in Auburn. Auburn could very well be 9-3 with wins over Oregon and Georgia. That would put them in the Top 15.
Also, based on current SP+ rankings, here are Clemson's opponents:
#25 Texas A&M
#33 South Carolina
#45 Wake Forest
#55 North Carolina
#57 Florida State
#60 NC State
#62 Boston College
#63 Louisville
#67 Syracuse
#95 Georgia Tech
#111 Charlotte
FCS Wofford
Their best two opponents are Texas A&M and South Carolina... two teams that Bama would have also played and in all likelihood would have performed better against.
If Bama's loss is to Top 4 LSU and they have a win over #10 Auburn, you can bet there will be a debate.
Posted on 10/25/19 at 11:35 am to BHMKyle
I mean you are preaching to the choir here Kyle. Clemson's schedule is possibly the worst major P5 schedule (especially when you tack on another crappy game in Charlotte) for a true title contender in years. They will have no marquee opponents AND almost no mid-level quality opponents. Their only mid-level quality opponents may actually hurt them overall, because they will end up being SEC teams that finished 6-6 or 7-5.
I personally think Clemson at this point is right at or near Alabama in terms of "respect" given by the national media/hierarchy, and if they are sitting on a 13-0 record, 28 game winning streak and fresh off a 15-0 national title season (that included a 28 pt win over Alabama) that there is a 0.0% chance they are getting left out of the playoff. Especially if Alabama's resume is overall pretty meh (better than Clemson's, but not eye popping). None at all.
That's why I say that LSU would have a much better shot - they'd have flashy wins, better metrics and a close road loss to a team with the longest home winning streak in college football.
I personally think Clemson at this point is right at or near Alabama in terms of "respect" given by the national media/hierarchy, and if they are sitting on a 13-0 record, 28 game winning streak and fresh off a 15-0 national title season (that included a 28 pt win over Alabama) that there is a 0.0% chance they are getting left out of the playoff. Especially if Alabama's resume is overall pretty meh (better than Clemson's, but not eye popping). None at all.
That's why I say that LSU would have a much better shot - they'd have flashy wins, better metrics and a close road loss to a team with the longest home winning streak in college football.
This post was edited on 10/25/19 at 11:39 am
Posted on 10/25/19 at 11:39 am to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
That's why I say that LSU would have a much better shot - they'd have flashy wins, better metrics and a road loss to a team that hasn't lost a home game in 4 years.
You don't think the committee would be impressed with Duke's pass defense?
Posted on 10/25/19 at 11:40 am to LSU Patrick
quote:
You don't think the committee would be impressed with Duke's pass defense?
It's weird that you keep bringing this up when time has done nothing but prove what I said to be 100% accurate.
Texas' pass defense is atrocious (#101 overall). Duke's pass defense is above average (#44 overall).
This post was edited on 10/25/19 at 11:41 am
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