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re: Predict Tonight’s CFP ranking
Posted on 12/2/25 at 10:28 am to RolltidePA
Posted on 12/2/25 at 10:28 am to RolltidePA
quote:
A ranked win is a ranked win. Something that A&M has only done once this season.
Missouri is currently ranked 25th in the AP poll.
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Posted on 12/2/25 at 10:28 am to Hugh McElroy
quote:
The chart is 100% accurate. It is standard to count "ranked wins" as "wins against teams that were ranked when you beat them." That's the standard usage across TV and media. If you want to look at wins against teams that finished the year ranked, that data can only be considered in retrospect
So you're saying that Ole Miss and Texas A&M haven't finished their regular seasons? Seems like a perfect time to do a retrospective review of both teams.
Posted on 12/2/25 at 10:29 am to FootballFrenzy
quote:
Missouri is currently ranked 25th in the AP poll.
I see. Tulane is #21 now. Still a better win.
Posted on 12/2/25 at 10:31 am to RolltidePA
I could see Aggie behind Ole Miss.
I don’t think they drop Ole Miss due to LK bailing. Ole Miss still has Trinidad Chambliss , the key to their good season. Based on some of the on field decisions LK made , an absent LK is not reason to drop them.
I thought the committee just did the top 12 straight up then pushed 12 out at the very end to accommodate the G5.
I don’t think they drop Ole Miss due to LK bailing. Ole Miss still has Trinidad Chambliss , the key to their good season. Based on some of the on field decisions LK made , an absent LK is not reason to drop them.
I thought the committee just did the top 12 straight up then pushed 12 out at the very end to accommodate the G5.
Posted on 12/2/25 at 10:32 am to Tuscaloosa
Miami should 1000% be ahead of ND as well.
Posted on 12/2/25 at 10:35 am to Zgeo
quote:
I don’t think they drop Ole Miss due to LK bailing. Ole Miss still has Trinidad Chambliss , the key to their good season. Based on some of the on field decisions LK made , an absent LK is not reason to drop them.
You have a DC who is now in the HC position. So basically they don’t have their original HC, OC, DC and other staff. Golding will have less time with the team now that he has to deal with the dog and pony show. Chambliss was serviceable during the season but he hasn’t faced the talent above him. They also have the issue that there’s much better venues over oxford and a 60k stadium. CFP is all about money so don’t be surprised when Ole Miss doesn’t host.
Posted on 12/2/25 at 10:36 am to Zgeo
Just follow Adam McClintock - he and the CFP are almost always in lock step.
Posted on 12/2/25 at 10:37 am to Zgeo
quote:
I don’t think they drop Ole Miss due to LK bailing. Ole Miss still has Trinidad Chambliss , the key to their good season. Based on some of the on field decisions LK made , an absent LK is not reason to drop them.
They already said without a data point to show how they are without him, they won't be punished for it.
Posted on 12/2/25 at 10:38 am to Gings5
quote:
Miami should 1000% be ahead of ND as well.
This one has been head scratcher. Same record and Miami owns the head to head win. It certainly appears that they are punishing Miami for the team that they lost to rather than rewarding the wins. Neither of Miami's losses were particularly bad. SMU and Louisville aren't embarrassing losses and both games were close.
Posted on 12/2/25 at 10:45 am to WilliamTaylor21
They\n Need to be in the playoffs i gotta respect for Ole miss
Posted on 12/2/25 at 10:51 am to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
SummerOfGeorge
IYO, what is your thought on how/why bama is a 95% lock to make the playoffs? Obviously 100% with a win but I just can't wrap my head around a 3-loss non-champion being a lock. Everyone just keeps repeating that bama is in no matter what but I don't see it.
And this isn't sour grapes towards bama I'd say the same thing about UGA or anyone else.
Posted on 12/2/25 at 10:59 am to DarthRebel
This is retard level
Posted on 12/2/25 at 11:14 am to WG_Dawg
quote:
quote:
SummerOfGeorge
IYO, what is your thought on how/why bama is a 95% lock to make the playoffs? Obviously 100% with a win but I just can't wrap my head around a 3-loss non-champion being a lock. Everyone just keeps repeating that bama is in no matter what but I don't see it.
And this isn't sour grapes towards bama I'd say the same thing about UGA or anyone else.
Effectively, Alabama has several bites at the apple that ND does not: they are in if A) they win (~42% chance) OR B) BYU loses (~86% chance) OR C) they lose close and the Committee vaults them above ND in the event of a BYU win (???% chance). There's also a potential D) wherein the Committee drops Ole Miss due to the volatility there (unknown as of right now but some level of that probability will be baked into the odds until tonight). Unless they get drilled, the only team that would jump them is BYU with a win this weekend.
ND's probability (83%) is quite close to what the probability is for Texas Tech to beat BYU (86%).
Some of this will move a lot after tonight. If it is still #9 ND, #10 Alabama, #11 BYU, #12 Miami, then I suspect ND's odds will go up some and Alabama's down a touch (would likely be a final signal that Miami is no longer a threat and that a BYU loss would endanger them both). You'll also get more clarity in the odds for a lot of other teams vis a vis the Ole Miss situation.
This post was edited on 12/2/25 at 11:17 am
Posted on 12/2/25 at 11:18 am to AbuTheMonkey
quote:
Effectively, Alabama has several bites at the apple that ND does not: they are in if A) they win (~42% chance) OR B) BYU loses (~86% chance) OR C) they lose close and the Committee vaults them above ND in the event of a BYU win (???% chance). There's also a potential D) wherein the Committee drops Ole Miss due to the volatility there (unknown as of right now but level of that probability will be baked into the odds until tonight).
ND's probability (83%) is quite close to what the probability is for Texas Tech to beat BYU (86%).
Some of this will move a lot after tonight. If it is still #9 ND, #10 Alabama, #11 BYU, #12 Miami, then I suspect ND's odds will go up some and Alabama's down a touch (would likely be a final signal that Miami is no longer a threat and that a BYU loss would endanger them both).
Sorry WG, didn't see your post, so I'll reply to both here as Abu did an excellent job laying it out.
We'll see if this is foreshadowing about #9/10, because that is a pretty big deal for a couple of reasons.
(1) Whoever is #10 is theoretically on the chopping block if BYU beats Texas Tech
(2) If Notre Dame drops to #10 they inch much closer to Miami at #12 or #13 (or #11?), and the "same tier/bucket" thing starts to rear it's head.
I think if Alabama is #9 tonight it's pretty clearly the committee saying that outside of some wild result (Ty tears an ACL, Georgia wins 41-14, etc), that Alabama is in.
If Alabama is still #10, they are CLEARLY in trouble with a loss and BYU winning and may be in trouble even with a competitive loss.
On the flip side, like Abu said, if Notre Dame stays at #9 then Miami is finished.
I do think that drawing Georgia instead of Texas A&M helps Alabama in terms of the 3rd loss being against a team that already played and beat on the road earlier in the year, rightly or wrongly. It kind of takes the "playing an extra game" argument to another level because it isn't just another game, it's another game against a Top 5 team you already beat in their stadium. Again, that may just be wishful thinking on my part, but I think losing to Texas A&M would have been much worse for Alabama's chances.
But who knows - these aren't computers. They are people. And every year is it's own semi-unique situation, especially as we expand and get bigger.
This post was edited on 12/2/25 at 11:21 am
Posted on 12/2/25 at 11:29 am to Zgeo
Gotta put lsu in there now that theyre on the lane train.
Posted on 12/2/25 at 11:35 am to Zgeo
How do you argue objectively in a subjective environment?
Always next year.
Always next year.
Posted on 12/2/25 at 11:40 am to Zgeo
Interesting, that Florida loss is really hurting Texas. I would take Texas over Miami, BYU, Notre Dame and Ole Miss. They already beat OU and A&M.
Florida weighing heavily. Playoff system and rankings will always have this kind of stuff with 2 and 3 loss teams. Lose 3 and lose control of your own destiny.
Florida weighing heavily. Playoff system and rankings will always have this kind of stuff with 2 and 3 loss teams. Lose 3 and lose control of your own destiny.
Posted on 12/2/25 at 11:46 am to Tridentds
quote:
Lose 3 and lose control of your own destiny.
We are learning it is actually lose 2 and you lose control of your destiny.
OU/Bama have 2 losses and are "in" while Vandy and Miami have 2 losses and are out. Miami has a win over a team "in" right now as well
Posted on 12/2/25 at 11:46 am to RolltidePA
forget Kiffin- have you actually looked at Oke Miss' schedule and results?
it's worse than the A&M schedule y'all dissed all season.
Ole Miss should NOT be penalized for losing their coach, but they should be ranked behind A&M based on schedule and results.
it's worse than the A&M schedule y'all dissed all season.
Ole Miss should NOT be penalized for losing their coach, but they should be ranked behind A&M based on schedule and results.
This post was edited on 12/2/25 at 11:47 am
Posted on 12/2/25 at 11:50 am to Zgeo
1 OSU
2 Indiana
3 Georgia
4 Tech
5 Oregon
6 A&M
7 Ole Miss
8 Oklahoma
9 ND
10 Bama
11 BYU
12 Miami
2 Indiana
3 Georgia
4 Tech
5 Oregon
6 A&M
7 Ole Miss
8 Oklahoma
9 ND
10 Bama
11 BYU
12 Miami
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