re: Playoffs down to 8..maybe 9

I know they're talking about 12, but even 8 would be good enough. Get all the major conference champs in and then place some at-larges. Throw a bone at the highest ranked non-power conference champ.

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I think Clemson and UNC nearly control their own destiny. I think a 1-loss p5 conference champ is in unless there are 5 of them. I don’t think LSU controls their own destiny because if you have lsu with 2 losses and 4 other p5 champs with 1-loss, I think lsu gets left out.

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We'll have to look at the CFP rankings this week, to get an indication.

Looking at the last week, you're wrong...


In that, Clemson is 10 and UNC is 15.

Ole Miss and UCLA lost, as did Oregon. So for fun, let's figure LSU moves up to 6, Clemson to 9, UNC to 13. USC figures to be 7, Utah 10.
Top 4 remain the same.

We know Ohio State and Michigan play, which will drop one out. Tennessee was #1 and fell to 5 after losing to UGA.

That means that likely, things would be 1 UGA, 2 Ohio State, 3 TCU, 4 Tennessee, 5 LSU ... going into conference championships.

If LSU beats UGA, I think they move into the Top 4. Committee would have to decide whether that means dropping UGA from 1 to 5 (like they did with Tennesee), or if LSU jumps Tennessee who is idle, while LSU plays current #1.

Clemson-UNC appears to be WAY down the list, and now the Pac 12 matchup looks weaker. Neither would get enough of a bump to jump high enough.

It LOOKED like the committee had been setting it up that the winner of Oregon/USC would jump Tennessee, getting the 4th spot. That was projecting to be a 5-7 or 5-6 matchup. Oregon and UCLA dropping, that seems to have weakened that conference for the time being.

TCU has to win out, but I can see that happening.

Kentucky losing, that means Tennessee doesn't even face a ranked team the rest of the season. I think that means they are ok if UGA wins out, but otherwise could get jumped. LSU and USC are the two threats they face. LSU vs UGA is the bigger danger, but also the more unlikely one.
The question would be if they think USC beating Utah in a rematch would be enough to push them in. That conference title might do it.

If Usc loses the Clemson/North Carolina winner will make the playoffs with 1 loss. They both will have beaten 3 currently ranked teams which is just as much than any of the 9 teams that still have a shot.

As we all know its about the 4 best teams as the season
goes on.OH ST.-MICH will take care of 1 spot GEO-LSU
take care of 2nd spot,USC,TCU,have very tough games
remaining.Tenn gets in if LSU loses to A@M or GEO.Don`t be
suprised if ND beats USC or BAYLOR beats TCU.It could be
a very interesting couple of weeks for college football fans. My prediction : GEO,OHIO ST.,TENN,TCU.

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I believe you need a conference championship to get in this year. Just a gut feeling. Good teams will be left out of the process as they prepare for the expanded playoffs.

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That's what I'm thinking too. And if you want to push for expanded playoffs, I think 11-1 Tennessee with a spectacular offense is the poster child for that argument. Arguments will be made that they are "better" than half the teams that get in, but because they didn't win the SEC they got left out.

11-2 LSU sorta plays that angle, saying the SEC champ should be in regardless. It would be, with more teams in. But I don't think it would create the necessary outrage.
I really think they're going to want a controversy, so the nation will accept the larger field in the future.

Now, the really big shocker would be if LSU wins out and the SEC is left out completely. Committee could claim they went conference champs, and with the SEC at 11-2, it was behind Big 10, Pac 12, Big 12 and ACC. At that point, people would DEMAND a change in format, because UGA is clearly the best team in football this year, Tennessee is almost certainly one of the top 4, and LSU would be the SEC Champ. 3 teams that all would have a claim, and none make it because of beating each other up. They do that, and next year we'll be screaming for 6-8-12 teams to get in.

There are only 5 teams that control their destiny.
UGA
OSU
MICH
TCU
USC
OSU/Mich will take care of itself
TCU wins out they are in
We’ve seen this too many times with marquee names. USC wins out and avenges their only loss they are in.

UTk needs UGA to win out and TCU or USC to drop a game.
LSU has to win out and have TCU or USC drop a game.

Clem/UNC need UGA to win out, TCU and USC to lose, and OSU vs Mich to be a blowout.

IMO UGA is in regardless. If favorites win out it will be
UGA
OSU
TCU
USC

TCU loses
UGA
OSU
UTk
USC

USC loses
UGA
OSU
UTk
TCU. Will flip UTk and TCU or UGA and OSU to avoid rematch.

Only UGA loses
OSU
TCU
UGA
USC

UGA and TCU or USC loses
OSU
TCU/USC
UGA
LSU

UGA, TCU, and USC lose
OSU
UGA

no clue. Combo of UTk, LSU, UNC/Clem 1 loss champion, Michigan if game is close, TCU if lose to Baylor but win conf championship game. I do see this as the only scenario where all 3 SEC teams would make it but I don’t think the committee would let that happen. Chaos scenario. I believe it should be the 3 SEC teams and OSU but would probably be a weak arse ACC 1 loss champ and LSU or UTk.


TCU and USC lose
UGA
OSU
UTk
CLem/UNC or TCU if loss is not in conference champ game. Michigan if close loss also possible. This scenario leaves the most room for frickery with the last spot.

USC definitely has the toughest path left against 3 ranked teams. TCU has Baylor and probably K State.