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Odds update for this weekend
Posted on 9/29/14 at 7:36 pm
Posted on 9/29/14 at 7:36 pm
Alabama -6.5 over Ole Miss
Mississippi State -1.5 over A&M
Tennessee -2 over Florida
Auburn -8 over LSU
South Carolina -5 over Kentucky
Thoughts?
Mississippi State -1.5 over A&M
Tennessee -2 over Florida
Auburn -8 over LSU
South Carolina -5 over Kentucky
Thoughts?
Posted on 9/29/14 at 7:37 pm to TideSaint
Don't ever bet on South Carolina.
Posted on 9/29/14 at 7:39 pm to TideSaint
quote:
Mississippi State -1.5 over A&M
Call me crazy, but I just don't see this one. I was much more worried about Arkansas. They had something to prove. MSU is on top of the world right now. Time to knock them off.
Posted on 9/29/14 at 7:42 pm to TideSaint
Dang that OM bama line is moving..
Posted on 9/29/14 at 7:43 pm to TideSaint
quote:
Alabama -6.5 over Ole Miss
The healthier Blake Sims seemingly becomes, the higher this line is going to go.
Posted on 9/29/14 at 7:47 pm to TideSaint
quote:
Mississippi State -1.5 over A&M Tennessee -2 over Florida
Would be funny as shite if both teams won and
quote:
Auburn -8 over LSU
We pulled off the upset. Would make my weekend.
With either Bama or Ole Miss set to eat shite, no way I can lose on that one.
Posted on 9/29/14 at 7:48 pm to Navytiger74
AU by 11
Twice as many TDs, half as many FGs.
Twice as many TDs, half as many FGs.
This post was edited on 9/29/14 at 7:49 pm
Posted on 9/29/14 at 7:49 pm to parkjas2001
quote:
AU by 11
My current prediction is AU by 10 (45-35), but you can still GFYS.
Posted on 9/29/14 at 7:50 pm to BrerTiger
Why is the Alabama line moving so much? Someone who actually knows line movement explain. Because I've heard, "Oh the smart money goes on first, that's how they set the line." and "Oh if it keeps moving one way it must mean the line was wrong". All the way to, "the team that's getting the majority of the bets is destined not to cover".
Posted on 9/29/14 at 7:52 pm to SwaggerCopter
quote:
MSU is on top of the world right now. Time to knock them off.
You don't say? I was thinking the same thing about A&m.
Posted on 9/29/14 at 7:57 pm to Kcoyote
quote:
Why is the Alabama line moving so much? Someone who actually knows line movement explain. Because I've heard, "Oh the smart money goes on first, that's how they set the line." and "Oh if it keeps moving one way it must mean the line was wrong". All the way to, "the team that's getting the majority of the bets is destined not to cover".
$1 million moves the line a half a point.
So, Alabama opened at -4, that means that about $5 million more has gone to Alabama than to Ole Miss. Vegas tries to get it as even as possible. Remember. Vegas takes a ~10% cut. If they get $10 million on both sides, they make $2 million no matter who wins.
Inevitably, Vegas misses a line and I think they did here. 7.5 would have been a tough line to go heavy either way. Let's say this - if Vegas is involved in the outcome of games, then Ole Miss will win this one and Vegas will take a big payday.
Vegas knows what they are doing, but they miss a line every once in a while. If Bama wins by a TD or more, which is quite possible, they could lose $12 million on one game. But if Ole Miss covers, they could make $17 million.
This post was edited on 9/29/14 at 8:01 pm
Posted on 9/29/14 at 8:06 pm to TideSaint
LSU gains a point after Harris announcement. Oh, they know...
Posted on 9/29/14 at 8:11 pm to TideSaint
AU already dropped from -9 to -9.5 to -8?
Posted on 9/29/14 at 8:13 pm to anc
Amount of money it takes to move a line is dependent on the sizeof the book and it's action on any given game.
The vegas sportsbooks are mostly independent of each other so I have no idea where that 1 mil fallacy comes from.
When I used to bet really big, I could move an mlb line 5 or 10 percentage points in the offshore book I used. I knew it was me as well as the line would automatically move what I expected the second I put in a large wager on a random mlb game in season at that particular book.
The vegas sportsbooks are mostly independent of each other so I have no idea where that 1 mil fallacy comes from.
When I used to bet really big, I could move an mlb line 5 or 10 percentage points in the offshore book I used. I knew it was me as well as the line would automatically move what I expected the second I put in a large wager on a random mlb game in season at that particular book.
Posted on 9/29/14 at 8:33 pm to Tiger n Miami AU83
quote:frick, how much were you betting a game?
When I used to bet really big, I could move an mlb line 5 or 10 percentage points
Posted on 9/29/14 at 8:50 pm to TideSaint
(no message)
This post was edited on 6/5/22 at 10:02 pm
Posted on 9/29/14 at 8:55 pm to TideSaint
quote:
Mississippi State -1.5 over A&M
Easy money, Aggies are clearly the underdog. Should lose by 14
Go cowbells!!! Clang clang clang
Mississippi State -1.5 over A&M
Easy money, Aggies are clearly the underdog. Should lose by 14
Go cowbells!!! Clang clang clang
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