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My Predictions - National Seeds + Regional Hosts
Posted on 5/25/25 at 6:37 pm
Posted on 5/25/25 at 6:37 pm
Just my opinion on grouping, not seeds
Regional host have been announced now.
National Seeds
.684 UNC 26-12 ( 6, 2 )
.667 Texas 24-12 ( 4, 6 )
.644 Vanderbilt 29-16 ( 1, 1 )
.618 Oregon State 20-12-1 ( 7, 10 )
.600 LSU 21-14 ( 10, 7 )
.577 Coastal Carolina 15-11 ( 8, 3 )
.559 Georgia 19-15 ( 2, 14)
.552 Arkansas 16-13 ( 5, 5 )
* Auburn is the next team to move up if one of these slide, but had to make a decision
Regional Host
.600 Clemson 24-16 ( 9, 10 )
.568 Tennessee 21-16 ( 11, 13 )
.548 FSU 17-14 ( 14, 17 )
.526 Auburn 20-18 ( 3, 16 ) *
.513 Ole Miss 20-19 ( 12, 15 )
.481 USM 13-14 ( 19, 8 )
.462 Oregon 12-14 ( 17, 11 )
.467 UCLA 14-16 ( 15, 31 )
#2 seeds
.555 Alabama 20-16 ( 13, 18 )
.550 TCU 22-18 ( 18, 30)
.474 Florida 18-20 ( 16, 9)
.471 Northeastern 8-9 ( 23, 4 )
.469 Georgia Tech 15-17 ( 22, 19)
Order within category
( Q1 + Q2 Wins ) vs All Losses
In parentheses
( RPI , ELO )
Regional host have been announced now.
National Seeds
.684 UNC 26-12 ( 6, 2 )
.667 Texas 24-12 ( 4, 6 )
.644 Vanderbilt 29-16 ( 1, 1 )
.618 Oregon State 20-12-1 ( 7, 10 )
.600 LSU 21-14 ( 10, 7 )
.577 Coastal Carolina 15-11 ( 8, 3 )
.559 Georgia 19-15 ( 2, 14)
.552 Arkansas 16-13 ( 5, 5 )
* Auburn is the next team to move up if one of these slide, but had to make a decision
Regional Host
.600 Clemson 24-16 ( 9, 10 )
.568 Tennessee 21-16 ( 11, 13 )
.548 FSU 17-14 ( 14, 17 )
.526 Auburn 20-18 ( 3, 16 ) *
.513 Ole Miss 20-19 ( 12, 15 )
.481 USM 13-14 ( 19, 8 )
.462 Oregon 12-14 ( 17, 11 )
.467 UCLA 14-16 ( 15, 31 )
#2 seeds
.555 Alabama 20-16 ( 13, 18 )
.550 TCU 22-18 ( 18, 30)
.474 Florida 18-20 ( 16, 9)
.471 Northeastern 8-9 ( 23, 4 )
.469 Georgia Tech 15-17 ( 22, 19)
Order within category
( Q1 + Q2 Wins ) vs All Losses
In parentheses
( RPI , ELO )
This post was edited on 5/25/25 at 8:00 pm
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Posted on 5/25/25 at 6:38 pm to BigBro
Only way we shouldn’t host a super is if the committee decides it’s politically unfeasible for the SEC to have six of the top eight.
Posted on 5/25/25 at 6:42 pm to Bigbens42
quote:
Only way we shouldn’t host a super is if the committee decides it’s politically unfeasible for the SEC to have six of the top eight.
I’m a big believer in this formula.. and 18 losses hurts your cause here..
16th in the ELO was the dealbreaker for me..
But I’m not an expert, so maybe I’m wrong..
Posted on 5/25/25 at 6:42 pm to Bigbens42
quote:
Only way we shouldn’t host a super is if the committee decides it’s politically unfeasible for the SEC to have six of the top eight
Or if, you know, you lose.
Posted on 5/25/25 at 6:52 pm to BigBro
Watch out for Georgia Tech stealing a host site as ACC regular season champs.
Posted on 5/25/25 at 7:02 pm to MrWalkingMan
quote:
Watch out for Georgia Tech stealing a host site as ACC regular season champs.
Certainly possible, but they’re EO and RPI are both in the 20s and they are 15-17 using this formula, but I’ll add them as a longshot
Posted on 5/25/25 at 7:05 pm to Bigbens42
quote:
Only way we shouldn’t host a super is if the committee decides it’s politically unfeasible for the SEC to have six of the top eight.
You were 6th in the SEC and you want a Top 8 seed?
And then you lost to a 11-19 SEC team in the tourney
Not going to happen
Posted on 5/25/25 at 7:07 pm to Double Oh
quote:
You were 6th in the SEC and you want a Top 8 seed? And then you lost to a 11-19 SEC team in the tourney Not going to happen
Third in RPI against the number one strength of schedule. There’s no question we belong beyond it being a political one.
Posted on 5/25/25 at 7:08 pm to Bigbens42
Also, and as I’ve said ad nauseam, conference standing is a poor indicator because not all conference schedules are created equal.
Posted on 5/25/25 at 7:09 pm to Bigbens42
quote:
Third in RPI against the number one strength of schedule. There’s no question we belong beyond it being a political one.
That is debatable.
Maybe if you had finished 5th in SEC and maybe won one tourney game then i would say yes you have a shot.
But we will see here shortly
Posted on 5/25/25 at 7:10 pm to Bigbens42
quote:
Third in RPI against the number one strength of schedule. There’s no question we belong beyond it being a political one.
Disagree. You are definitely on the bubble, which means it could go either way.
You are tied for 9th with Clemson using an average of RPI + ELO.
Posted on 5/25/25 at 7:11 pm to BigBro
Change wins to quad 1 wins. Quad 2 doesn't matter much
Posted on 5/25/25 at 7:18 pm to volinktown
quote:
Change wins to quad 1 wins. Quad 2 doesn't matter much
It wouldn’t change it much, and I’m using my phone, so too much work to recalculate it.
Posted on 5/25/25 at 7:19 pm to Bigbens42
quote:
conference standing is a poor indicator
Yet your go to is an outdated formula that will penalize you for winning games.
Seems logical.
Posted on 5/25/25 at 7:20 pm to im4LSU
quote:
Yet your go to is an outdated formula that will penalize you for winning games. Seems logical.
That’s the one the committee still most heavily weights. That and the mysterious KPI.
Posted on 5/25/25 at 7:21 pm to BigBro
Would rather not host if it means we go to the one or two seed for a super.
Posted on 5/25/25 at 7:22 pm to Bigbens42
quote:
That’s the one the committee still most heavily weights
It’s not
But maybe if y’all say it enough times one of the committee members might stumble upon your post and start to believe it.
Posted on 5/25/25 at 7:24 pm to im4LSU
quote:
It’s not But maybe if y’all say it enough times one of the committee members might stumble upon your post and start to believe it.
How does one respond to the casual denial of stone cold fact?
Posted on 5/25/25 at 7:27 pm to AHM21
quote:
Would rather not host if it means we go to the one or two seed for a super.
You’re still likely to do that as a #2 unless the #15 and #16 are SEC teams
#1
#16 #17 #48 #49
#2
#15 #18 #47 #50
Posted on 5/25/25 at 7:32 pm to BigBro
One of Florida, Tennessee or Alabama is going to get the boot.
Don't see the selection committee giving the SEC 10 host spots, even if those 10 are amongst the best 16 teams.
The question is who gets the last spot. TCU & UCLA crapped the bed. So it'll either be Georgia Tech or Northeastern at 16.
If it's the latter, expect them to send a brutal 2-3 seed combo to Boston (like they did to Georgia Southern in 2022)
Edit: nvm - it was UCLA
Don't see the selection committee giving the SEC 10 host spots, even if those 10 are amongst the best 16 teams.
The question is who gets the last spot. TCU & UCLA crapped the bed. So it'll either be Georgia Tech or Northeastern at 16.
If it's the latter, expect them to send a brutal 2-3 seed combo to Boston (like they did to Georgia Southern in 2022)
Edit: nvm - it was UCLA
This post was edited on 5/25/25 at 7:40 pm
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