re: mred's 2025 SEC FB Standings Tiebreaker Tool

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Bama still has best path to SECCG.

Bama and Texas A&M have the best paths to the SECCG. Neither team has to hope for another team to lose.

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I think he means the fact that Alabama has Auburn (though at Jordan Hare) while A&M has to play Texas. Texas is the tougher opponent.

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Bama should be on the fringes of the playoff, outside looking in, but ESPN won't allow that to happen.

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Nah. Bama still has the best resume of anyone. It's why Ole Miss and UGA need another Bama loss to pass Bama in the SEC standings.

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What?

Best win of any team and hardest SOS of top teams.

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Yep. That dude is nuts.

To best explain scenarios:

Straight forward scenarios:
A&M in with a win over Texas or rivalry weekend losses by both Alabama and Ole Miss

Georgia in with a Texas A&M or Alabama loss

Alabama - In with a win and an A&M or Ole Miss loss

Ole Miss - in with a win and Alabama and A&M losses

Opponent win percentage scenarios:
This only comes up if A&M is 8-0 and Alabama, Georgia, and Ole Miss are 7-1. This scenario currently favors Alabama right now.

Alabama opponents current: 26-28
Georgia opponents current: 25-29

For the 3 way tie to happen (A&M, Bama, Ole Miss beat Texas, Auburn, State) in the first place those records become:

Alabama: 26-29 (.4727)
Georgia: 27-32 (.4576)

Games where outcome doesn't matter
Oklahoma-Missouri
Oklahoma-LSU
These results don't matter because both teams were Alabama opponents that didn't play Georgia.

Alabama 28-31 (.4745)
Georgia 27-32 (.4576)

Remaining relevant games
Florida - Tennessee
Texas - Arkansas
Vandy - Kentucky
Arkansas Missouri
Tennessee - Vandy

Vanderbilt - Tennessee doesn't matter for Alabama because they played both but it does matter for Georgia.

Florida - Tennessee doesn't matter for Georgia because they played both but it does matter for Alabama.

Alabama 29-32 (.4754)
Georgia 28-33 (.4590)

Georgia must finished above Alabama in this metric because a tie reverts to head to head.

Pro Georgia outcomes:
Texas over Arkansas
Arkansas over Missouri
Florida over Tennessee
Kentucky over Vanderbilt
Tennessee over Vanderbilt

If every outcome went in Georgia's favor it ends
Georgia 31-33
Alabama 29-35

The most impactful games is Vanderbilt - Kentucky because it's the only remaining game putting a Georgia only opponent against an Alabama only opponent.

If Vanderbilt beats Kentucky then Alabama wins a 3 way tiebreaker.

If Kentucky beats Vanderbilt Georgia needs more outcomes that favor their opponents or hurt Alabamas than not.

Between this and the completely uneven scheduling, I want divisions back.

Yea, if Bama wins they seem to be in, even if Ole Miss loses to Miss. St. Bama has the head to head advantage. The key is, will they stick to last years "theory" when they put in SMU who lost if Bama loses to Texas AM? We would be in without the SEC Champ game now, and after an Auburn win.

If the ratings take into account SOS as they should, and teams you have beaten, we should ahead of Notre Dame and OU, who were not good, just like I stated in 2011, LSU was lucky to win, it happens. However, this Bama team is average, but all CFB teams are nor average, that is what happens when you dilute the talent set to more teams, and never have huddles any more. Its pretty bad tbh, reminds me of CBB about 10 years ago, CBB seems to have gotten better, they are back to playing team ball, I guess the run and gun teams is built on te extra pass.

2011 Bama or LSU would beat any team in 2025 by 20 plus points. LSU was much better than the 21-0 score, but Bama was 10 points better on average imho. The defense was just too good.

Looking at the playoff predictor SEC will get 6 teams in the playoff if all the 2-loss teams win out. Would come down to 5 guaranteed and 6 if 10-win Vandy gets the committee’s nod over other 10 win teams like Miami or USC/Oregon winner.

If SOS is the main determining factor not sure why they wouldn’t. In reality they’ll go with name recognition though

Why can not the CFP use a similar formula and not a committee?

Only figure skating, gymnastics and CFP use a panel of judges.

Would instantly break ties like it did before.

Now we have new tie-breakers that were only created for 1 big conference with no format for scheduling giving numerous situations involving various amounts of common opponents.

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without divisions do CCG really make sense

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It would only NOT make sense if we had a full round-robin schedule like the XII had (before they were forced to have a rematch).