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re: How much do you buy, or not buy Florida as a 3.5 pt favorite at home vs Ole Miss
Posted on 9/20/26 at 9:29 pm to TeeteringBrink
Posted on 9/20/26 at 9:29 pm to TeeteringBrink
quote:
Yeah, but Chambliss seems to shrug off opposing home crowds. I remember being worried about him getting rattled before his first big road start last year at UGA. Dude calmly engineered scoring drives first five possessions. So idk.
Not trolling because I’m just trying to go off memory. How many road venues has Chambliss played in like the swamp. It does not feel like many. I remember him having a horrid 2H at UGA after a hot in the start. I know he’s avoided Baton Rouge and Tuscaloosa. I don’t think he’s played in Knoxville or even Auburn during his still rather short tenure. Definitely not Austin. Ole Miss schedule was pretty light last year. Not saying he is not a boss and can’t do it like in the bowl games but those are still neutral crowds. Him coming off this past emotional week will not make it easy though.
This post was edited on 9/20/26 at 9:33 pm
Posted on 9/20/26 at 9:31 pm to jonnyanony
My point is this emotional hangover stuff could move both ways. Winning in auburn was big for Sumrall(as it should be).
Posted on 9/20/26 at 9:31 pm to MorningWoodAcademy1
A lot of the advanced analytics like Florida because of their offensive efficiency compared to Ole Miss. If they aren't weighing SOS significantly, a lot of models will generate a 5 point Florida win.
My model originally had Florida -1.5. Out of curiosity I adjusted the efficiency to take SOS into account more and it favored Ole Miss by 1. Ole Miss just isn't a pretty advanced analytics team even despite being the only team in country with 2 wins over currently ranked teams. I think SP+ has Florida by 4.7. It had LSU by 7.5 I think.
My model originally had Florida -1.5. Out of curiosity I adjusted the efficiency to take SOS into account more and it favored Ole Miss by 1. Ole Miss just isn't a pretty advanced analytics team even despite being the only team in country with 2 wins over currently ranked teams. I think SP+ has Florida by 4.7. It had LSU by 7.5 I think.
Posted on 9/20/26 at 9:33 pm to DMagic
quote:
Winning in auburn was big for Sumrall(as it should be).
Eh I don't know.
Like I said, a close loss wouldn't have been a big deal for us. Neither team got to 6 wins last year.
Nowhere near the stakes.
Posted on 9/20/26 at 9:34 pm to NoMercy
Came in second half of a tight against Kentucky and led us to a FG to seal the win. Played against Oklahoma in a one score game where Lane put us in terrible field position. Played awesome against Georgia and should have had more stats but Dequan dropped a for sure big gainer in the fourth. He’s battle tested
Posted on 9/20/26 at 9:34 pm to NoMercy
He did ok at UGA and at Oklahoma last year.
Posted on 9/20/26 at 9:36 pm to MorningWoodAcademy1
Buy it all. Vegas is broke. I remember a few years ago this same game was happening. Florida was right off of a loss and ole miss had just beat Alabama and they favored florida. then Florida proceeded to beat the shite out of them.
Posted on 9/20/26 at 9:36 pm to jonnyanony
I’m not arguing stakes or comparing the rivalry. Florida got an SEC win on the road that in and of itself lends itself to the possibility which is all I said
Posted on 9/20/26 at 9:37 pm to DMagic
You're suggesting an equal emotional letdown, which is pretty ridiculous given the contexts.
This post was edited on 9/20/26 at 9:38 pm
Posted on 9/20/26 at 9:37 pm to TeeteringBrink
Oklahoma is not one of those environments to me which is why I left them off. Of course Kentucky is not. Like I said I think he can do it. There is still limited experience of actually seeing it and adding the energy he likely expended this past week. I still think the LSU come back last night had a lot to do with the first half expended energy.
Posted on 9/20/26 at 9:39 pm to jonnyanony
Well yeah it’s a possibility
Which is one of thousands in the multiverse
Which is one of thousands in the multiverse
Posted on 9/20/26 at 9:39 pm to DMagic
quote:
Why wouldn’t the reciprocal be true? Florida could easily have an emotional hangover as well.
Do you think the Florida/Auburn game was as emotional as Ole Miss/LSU?
Posted on 9/20/26 at 9:39 pm to DMagic
I don’t think the two scenarios are comparable. This week’s game is a much better comp to what you just experienced.
Posted on 9/20/26 at 9:40 pm to captdalton
Could be yes
Or it could not be
Or both could happen and it’s an ugly game
Or it could not be
Or both could happen and it’s an ugly game
Posted on 9/20/26 at 9:40 pm to jonnyanony
Trin is one of the most even-keeled players I’ve ever seen. Dude just puts his head down and works during game week. If he can make that rub off on the team, we shouldn’t have an emotional letdown.
Posted on 9/20/26 at 9:41 pm to DMagic
quote:
Well yeah it’s a possibility
I don't think so.
Posted on 9/20/26 at 9:42 pm to MorningWoodAcademy1
Not buying it. I think Chambliss wills OM to win, and will continue to do so. Without him though, they are hot garbage
Posted on 9/20/26 at 9:46 pm to NoEmpathy
ButChambliss
Posted on 9/20/26 at 9:55 pm to TeeteringBrink
quote:
Trin is one of the most even-keeled players I’ve ever seen.
His age has something to do with it. He also played in big games when it was all on the line last year in the playoffs. This Saturday and practice this week is going to be more about the focus of the other positions, O-line, D-backs, etc. That's where the letdown could happen imo.
Posted on 9/20/26 at 9:55 pm to NoMercy
quote:
Not trolling because I’m just trying to go off memory. How many road venues has Chambliss played in like the swamp. It does not feel like many
Georgia, OU, Egg Bowl, Sugar Bowl, Fiesta Bowl
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