re: How many schools have a legitimate shot at a football championship?

Posted by Hoops

Member since Jan 2013

8095 posts

Posted on 7/2/24 at 10:48 am to FireDanMullen

The schools interchange based on coaching. Florida, USC, LSU are all Great examples. All have been elite with the right coach, and have been bad with wrong hires.

The last 3 LSU coaches won a NC?

Posted by jcaz

Laffy

Member since Aug 2014

18954 posts

Posted on 7/2/24 at 11:03 am to themetalreb

IMO it is honestly Georgia and Ohio State's championship to lose. They are the most likely to be playing in mid-January.

2nd tier teams are Oregon, LSU, Bama, and UT.

I refuse to believe A&M or Ole Miss ever sniff a SEC Championship, much less a natty.

This post was edited on 7/2/24 at 11:05 am

Posted by parrothead

big salty ham

Member since Mar 2010

5143 posts

Posted on 7/2/24 at 11:05 am to themetalreb

If I had to put an exact number on it, I’d say by the end of the regular season there will be 12 teams that have a legit shot at the championship.

Posted by themetalreb

Mississippi

Member since Sep 2018

6867 posts

Posted on 7/2/24 at 11:09 am to Hoops

Coach O won a National Championship at LSU….he couldn’t even win more than 4 games in a season at Ole Miss. Of course there were other variables, but that tells you a lot about the two programs. Any year that LSU doesn’t compete for a natty should be a disaster for that program….same for Alabama, Georgia, and Ohio State.

Posted by FreedomBarefoot

42° parallel

Member since Aug 2016

2497 posts

Posted on 7/2/24 at 11:10 am to themetalreb

Here are the 10 programs with odds at +2500 or better to win the national championship next season:
Georgia Bulldogs +275. ...
Ohio State Buckeyes +475. ...
Texas Longhorns +650. ...
Oregon Ducks +900. ...
Alabama Crimson Tide +1300. ...
Ole Miss Rebels +1500. ...
LSU Tigers +2000. ...
Florida State Seminoles +2500
Notre Dame +2500
Penn State +2500

https://www.google.com/amp/s/247sports.com/longformarticle/college-football-playoff-2024-25-national-championship-odds-updated-during-spring-practice-229205882/amp/

quote:
The usual College Football Playoff contenders are out front ahead of the 2024 season per Circa Las Vegas sportsbook's latest national championship odds, but with mass roster changes this spring across the sport, noticeable changes are here, too.

Write ups on each team in the link

Posted by BevoBucks

H-town

Member since Dec 2022

6696 posts

Posted on 7/2/24 at 11:22 am to themetalreb

quote:
How many schools have a legitimate shot at a football championship?

With NIL enthusiasm drying up, the question for the vast majority of athletic departments is whether to pay the premium for a chance in football or be competitive in other sports.

This post was edited on 7/2/24 at 12:02 pm

Posted by Stinger_1066

On a golf course

Member since Jul 2021

2899 posts

Posted on 7/2/24 at 11:42 am to themetalreb

There is an indicator called the "Blue Chip Ratio". It was invented in 2013 and has been 100% correct since then. It is not a ranking. It does not imply odds. It only says, for any given season, one of these teams will win the national championship. No other teams have a chance. The criteria is, if the Blue Chip Ratio is 50% or greater, the team has a chance. Otherwise, no.

Click on this link for a full explanation: LINK

For 2024, there are only 16 teams with BCR greater than 50%. One of these teams will win the 2024 CFP.

Team Ratio
Ohio State 90%
Alabama 88%
Georgia 80%
Texas A&M 79%
Oregon 76%
Oklahoma 73%
Texas 72%
LSU 70%
Notre Dame 67%
Clemson 64%
Florida 63%
Miami 61%
Penn State 61%
USC 59%
Michigan 56%
Auburn 53%

3 ...

Posted by DawgsLife

Ellijay, Ga.

Member since Jun 2013

61921 posts

Posted on 7/2/24 at 12:03 pm to AuburnTigers

quote:
Less than 5 years

After i read my post, I figured it could be taken as a troll. It was not meant to be. I think one of the aggravating things for me is being vague. I like to get people to be a bit more specific. And I think 5 years is reasonable. Auburn has a history of being very good, so it would be reasonable that they could contend again. With NIL and the transfer rules team can make it back much faster than in the past, too.

Thanks for answering.

Posted by Tiger Live2

Westwego, LA

Member since Mar 2012

9882 posts

Posted on 7/2/24 at 12:58 pm to Bigbens42

quote:
Much like the Spanish Inquisition we have a tendency to come out of nowhere.

I can only think about that SEC Shorts of the Auburn Roller Coaster.

Posted by Edward Rooney

Member since Jun 2024

269 posts

Posted on 7/2/24 at 1:00 pm to Dr Rosenrosen

quote:
Miami

Posted by bamameister

Right here, right now

Member since May 2016

17202 posts

Posted on 7/2/24 at 1:02 pm to Stinger_1066

So what you're saying is that no college football team is going to put more talent on the field in 2024 then Alabama and Ohio State. And the same Alabama team is going to be coached by the associated press sporting news and Eddie Robinson college football coach of the year. I'll take it.

Posted by cajunbama

Metairie

Member since Jan 2007

35066 posts

Posted on 7/2/24 at 1:06 pm to themetalreb

In the SEC this season?

Alabama
UGA
Texas

Anyone else is fantasy land.

Posted by FreedomBarefoot

42° parallel

Member since Aug 2016

2497 posts

Posted on 7/2/24 at 1:23 pm to Stinger_1066

Recruiting expert identifies 8 SEC teams with 'Blue-Chip Ratio' to compete for national championship

https://www.saturdaydownsouth.com/sec-football/recruiting-expert-identifies-8-sec-teams-with-blue-chip-ratio-to-compete-for-national-championship/

quote:
Could Ole Miss be the first party-crasher?

Ole Miss jumps out as a notable team missing from the list.

After going 11-2 with a New Year’s Six win and signing the top transfer portal class of 2024, Lane Kiffin’s Rebels are seen as a more national championship contender than some of their SEC peers who did make the BCR 16.

Ole Miss to win the 2024 college football national championship is a +1500 futures bet at DraftKings Sportsbook.

If the Rebels win it all, a $100 bet at current odds would win $1500 for a $1600 payout.

Auburn and Florida were the only two teams on the BCR 16 to have 5-digit odds as the national championship winner. AU is +11000, while UF is +25000.

Elliott has long maintained that signing the best high school talent sets the foundation for winning the national championship.

With the increasing popularity of the transfer portal and the expanded College Football Playoff field, there are increased opportunities for a sub-50% team to break through.

This time next year, we’ll see if we’re talking about another BCR winner or a portal king cracking the code.

Posted by Scoob

Near Exxon

Member since Jun 2009

23088 posts

Posted on 7/2/24 at 3:13 pm to themetalreb

quote:
I thought about Clemson. Briefly. It’s over for them.

You said "Florida (eventually)"...

are we talking legit, objective "that program can make a run", or are we doing fan chatter?

Clemson CAN make a run, because they've done it for about the past decade. Even being down, they pushed Fla State to the limit last year. I would say they are WAY closer than Florida, which is currently a mess and hasn't really contended in about a decade. I'd also say they are closer than Michigan, which just lost Harbaugh, needed luck to get past a (relatively) vulnerable Bama team in the semi's, and is losing some talent. I don't think they stay at that level.
I also don't think Washington stays at playoff level, with a new system and now fighting with established Big 10 powers along with Oregon and USC.

Who probably wins the next 2 years? UGA, Ohio State, maybe Texas, let's see what LSU can do on defense, and let's see what Deboer can do at Bama (it might swallow him whole). But putting "eventually" into the mix, suggests longer than just this year and next.

I wouldn't completely count out Utah, Arizona, and whoever else becomes the powers in the Big 12. They get a pathway into the playoffs, and "eventually" someone might shake out as the clear frontrunner. If someone makes the playoffs every year, it's going to be easier for them to recruit, and could become a legit national contender.

Posted by rtr23242526

Member since Dec 2022

3295 posts

Posted on 7/2/24 at 3:19 pm to themetalreb

No lsu..d horrible still

Posted by bamabaseballsec

Member since Dec 2020

3583 posts

Posted on 7/2/24 at 3:22 pm to themetalreb

Clemson and atm both have top ten rosters I believe, regardless both are over 50% bcr which has been the standard since the bcs. Pretty sure spurrier was the last natty winner without being above 50 percent bcr

Posted by 3down10

Member since Sep 2014

39375 posts

Posted on 7/2/24 at 3:24 pm to themetalreb

quote:
The number is incredibly small…I would say from our conference (in no particular order):

Alabama
Georgia
LSU
Texas
Oklahoma
Florida(eventually)

From elsewhere:

Michigan
Ohio State
USC (eventually)
Florida State
Washington
Oregon

Who am I glaringly missing? The point remains….you are not winning without elite talent, depth, and coaching. This eliminates damn near everybody. Would be interesting to see the aforementioned teams literally in a league of their own.

All it really takes is a little luck in a single year with players and how the ball bounces.

If Auburn can win one and play for another, many teams can.

Building a program that can sustain success is what is limited.

Posted by themetalreb

Mississippi

Member since Sep 2018

6867 posts

Posted on 7/2/24 at 4:01 pm to 3down10

quote:
sustain success

There it is….I’m talking about programs who can stand the test of time…yes Auburn can make a run, but then they’ll disappear for 10 years. No point in getting mad about it Aubie, it just is what it is. At least you’ve been there, and at some point you’ll get back. But you will NEVER have the constant top 5 presence those schools I mentioned have when it comes to being a perennial top program.