re: How is Alabama an 7 point favorite against ole miss

quote:

---

I didn't watch the ole miss game yesterday. What am I missing?

---

Because for all the trouble in the skill positions, Alabama will still win both lines of scrimmage.

This game will show me something about Lane Kiffin, and how he can run a team. He's an excellent innovator, and a risk taker. Can he scheme two downs out of three, and then take that first down and do it again ?

And how does Nick Saban and company handle it ? So conservative that it makes Lane's job easier ? Or so aggressive that it makes Lane's job easier. Very excited to see this one.

They are not. 6 1/2

quote:

---

why the hell do you think UGA was -26.5 this week?

---

To get as close as possible 50/50 split. They only count on the juice.

Your were not a good bookie apparently.

quote:

---

because Vegas thinks that half of the money will come in on Alabama and half on Ole Miss

with Milroe at QB.. my money would be on Alabama

---

With Milroe at QB, Bama only loses by 30.

I went to the ole miss game. They gave up easy yards up the middle to GT. Bama shouldn’t have to throw much to win

Tulane gave ole miss all they could handle for 3.5 quarters with a backup QB.

quote:

---

What am I missing?

---

History. Do you remember Ole miss in 2000 with Deuce McAllister and Romero Miller? Alabama was terrible all over the field. Alabama went into the game 1-3 with losses to UCLA, Southern Miss and Arkansas.

But what they did to Ole Miss is something of legend.

45-7

quote:

---

You do know bookies only take bets, right?

---

I do know that. I was also wondering why you would had mentioned being a bookie in the previous post about lines.

Vegas doesn't care if it's the Super Bowl or Preseason, they only care about getting the bets to be as even as possible to reduce risk. Their profit goal is 10% juice. Always.

quote:

---

I do know that. I was also wondering why you would had mentioned being a bookie in the previous post about lines.

---

because unlike most........I watched lines for every game, college and NFL, for five years. I saw first hand how most gamblers bet. I saw how lines expanded for the "big names" in college football. Bookies go to the experts for the lines. Any bookie making his own lines is a maroon.

quote:

---

Vegas doesn't care if it's the Super Bowl or Preseason, they only care about getting the bets to be as even as possible to reduce risk.

---

Again, this is untrue....except for the Super Bowl. There just isn't enough bet on UT/UF to worry about 50/50. They hope the majority is on the losing side. If the majority wins, they will make up that money on a different game. Regarding the Super Bowl, that is the only show that matters and Billions are bet on that game. 50/50 is their dream for that game.

I don't know if you pay attention to SVP making his picks on Sportscenter each week. There is a reason he always, and I mean always, takes the dog. You can count on one hand, and have fingers left over, the number of times he will pick a favorite for the entire season.

quote:

---

This has absolutely nothing to do with making the lines. Making lines was your argument that started this.

---

so you have never heard of trap games?


I don't remember what year it was. Tub was coach. Auburn was rolling along. We were favored by only 1 against Arky. I bet a month of lunch money on that game. That was easy money. Arky beat us like we stole something. Again, vegas doesn't care about 50/50 except for the Super Bowl. They want the vast majority of money on the losing side of any college/NFL regular season game.