ESPN: Alabama might be nearing the end of its dynasty

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To some degree, this is uncharted territory, even for a program with Alabama's history. Back in September, Bama reached No. 1 in the AP poll for the fifth straight season, which had been accomplished only one other time in the last 50 years (Miami, 1986-92). And if the Tide can win a third national championship in four years, well, that's been done just twice since the poll era began in 1936 (Notre Dame, 1946-49, and Nebraska, 1994-97).

But how much longer can Saban and Alabama keep this up?

Florida State began its remarkable run of 14 consecutive top-five finishes (1987-2000) before scholarship restrictions began in the early '90s, and was able to continue through the early years of the BCS. But the Seminoles have been the exception to the rule, and even they fell off the map quickly after appearing in the first three BCS championship games.

If FSU wasn't the team of the '90s, it was Nebraska, which lost just three games from 1993-97, won three national titles and was a missed field goal from winning another. But the program lost momentum after Tom Osborne retired, even though it had another strong team in 1999 and reached the BCS Championship in 2001.

Florida had a solid run in the '90s under Steve Spurrier and may have been good enough to win the title a few times, but the Gators had only three realistic late-season opportunities -- 1995, 1996 and 2001 -- and cashed in on just one of them. And like FSU and Nebraska, Florida experienced a noticeable dip in performance just after the turn of the century.

But for the programs that have been built (or rebuilt) since the NCAA established the 85-scholarship limit in 1994, life at the top of the mountain has been even shorter. The most dominant group has been Pete Carroll's USC teams, which began to surge in the second half of 2002 and, through the first half of 2009, rarely fell out of the top five. The Trojans won the AP title in 2003, the AP and BCS titles in 2004 (BCS title since vacated), and then lost in the BCS Championship in 2005. But as good as they were from 2006 to '08, they never made it back to the BCS title game.

Under Urban Meyer, Florida had a strong stretch of four years, winning the BCS championship in 2006 and 2008, then losing its undefeated season to Alabama in the 2009 SEC title game. Miami had three straight finishes in the top two under Butch Davis and Larry Coker from 2000 through 2002, but then disappeared from contention about as quickly as it had reappeared.

All of that is to say that since the 85-scholarship limit began, six or seven years is about as long as a program has been able to stay on top in college football. And Alabama is nearing the back end of that time frame.

The common thread in the demise of the majority of the best programs has been a coaching change, which is one reason that recent rumors about Saban's interest in a return to the NFL gained so much attention. For various reasons, Osborne, Spurrier, Carroll, Meyer and Davis all felt a need to move on to the next stage of their respective careers, and Alabama fans are hoping Saban isn't feeling that same urge.

Another threat to Alabama sustaining its production is the conference in which it plays. The SEC is enjoying a level of success far beyond what any league has ever experienced in college football, and Bama has already defied the odds by reaching three BCS title games in a four-year stretch during this historic run.

USC had its success under Carroll when the Pac-10 was perceived to be the Trojans and nine other teams. But as good as Alabama has been over the last five seasons, it hasn't dominated the SEC in any of those years. Nobody has. And it's unlikely that any team will in the near future.

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