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Posted on 11/26/18 at 2:53 pm to BHMKyle
quote:
The way things are looking, we will get a minimum of three teams with an absolute MAX of five teams unless our conference steps it up in the next 3-4 weeks.
Agreed. We either win now or we stay at home.
Posted on 11/26/18 at 2:54 pm to WildcatMike
quote:
If Auburn loses to either Dayton or NC State, then their seeding tanks for a solid NCAA seed in March.
Dayton, yes. Doesn't Auburn play NC State in Raleigh though?
I think with wins over Xavier, Arizona, Washington, and Dayton, Auburn could absorb a road loss to NC State and still get pretty good seeding in the NCAA if it could finish with a strong SEC record (15-3 type of season). Of course any loss hurts, but I don't think it would be a huge deal.
Posted on 11/26/18 at 3:03 pm to Arksulli
It's early, but there are only six SEC teams that look like potential NCAA Tournament teams to me, and I don't think all 6 get in:
Auburn, Tennessee, and Kentucky look to be solid teams. Kentucky is getting a pass here because we all know how much talent they have and I'm just assuming they step it up soon.
Arkansas, LSU, and Mississippi State look to be the next best teams. I think if any of these teams get hot, they could be as high as a 5-6 seed the the Tourney or as low as being in the NIT.
Florida and Bama have been the biggest disappointments thus far. I don't think either look like NCAA Tournament teams, but again, its early.
The rest of the league doesn't appear to even have a shot at a bid, IMO.
Auburn, Tennessee, and Kentucky look to be solid teams. Kentucky is getting a pass here because we all know how much talent they have and I'm just assuming they step it up soon.
Arkansas, LSU, and Mississippi State look to be the next best teams. I think if any of these teams get hot, they could be as high as a 5-6 seed the the Tourney or as low as being in the NIT.
Florida and Bama have been the biggest disappointments thus far. I don't think either look like NCAA Tournament teams, but again, its early.
The rest of the league doesn't appear to even have a shot at a bid, IMO.
Posted on 11/26/18 at 3:05 pm to BHMKyle
quote:
Florida and Bama have been the biggest disappointments thus far. I don't think either look like NCAA Tournament teams, but again, its early.
Florida is #1 in the SEC in defense but #13 in offense.
Go figure. What a weird start to the season.
Posted on 11/26/18 at 3:07 pm to WildcatMike
I'm not going to put much stock in these rankings right now. I mean Radford is top 25 in them.
Posted on 11/26/18 at 3:09 pm to MrAUTigers
quote:
somebody hasn't been paying attention.
au and uk vs duke
ut vs kansas
beating xavier and arizona are not headline wins in the cbb world
Posted on 11/26/18 at 3:28 pm to WildcatMike
Welp...Bama got blown out by Northeastern so you can probably not count on an Alabama contribution
Posted on 11/26/18 at 3:50 pm to MrAUTigers
Xavier is a meh win 
Posted on 11/26/18 at 3:57 pm to bamafan1001
quote:
Welp...Bama got blown out by Northeastern so you can probably not count on an Alabama contribution
Unfortunately Alabama is going to find out just like the rest of the SEC that its going to take a much better than .500 record in SEC play to make the NCAA Tournament.
Bama can make up for the loss to Northeastern with a wins over Arizona, Penn State, and Baylor. But there isn't much room for error.... and none of those OOC teams look poised to be sure bets for the NCAA Tournament themselves.
For Bama to make the NCAA Tournament, they probably need to get to a minimum of 18 regular season wins this year. That means they can only afford to lose 8 regular season games.
With one already happening to Northeastern plus six more upcoming games against the KenPom Top 25 (#9 Auburn 2x, #10 Tennessee, #19 Kentucky, #25 Mississippi State 2x) that means Bama's easiest path to the NCAA Tournament would be to go about 16-1 in all other remaining regular season games. Of course Bama is capable of winning some of the above more difficult games, so if they were to win any of those, they could possibly afford to lose one additional game against a more lowly opponent.
But going 16-1 against a slate that includes #30 Florida, #38 Penn State, #42 UCF, #47 LSU (2x), #50 Arkansas, #55 South Carolina, #56 Baylor, #58 Arizona, et al.... .that's not easy.
I just think unless the SEC turns things things around in a big way in OOC play, its going to take a minimum 10-8 SEC record to even have a prayer for the NCAA Tournament.
Posted on 11/26/18 at 3:59 pm to WildcatMike
quote:
Xavier is a meh win
It's certainly not a major resume enhancer... however at this point it stands as the SEC's 7th best win according to KenPom. That's how bad things are right now.
Posted on 11/26/18 at 4:00 pm to autodd03
quote:
beating xavier and arizona are not headline wins in the cbb world
Washington started the season at #25. Arizona will end up in the Tourney.
Posted on 11/26/18 at 4:06 pm to MrAUTigers
Zona is your only decent win at the moment at #33. Washington is #58 and Xavier checks in at #101
This post was edited on 11/26/18 at 4:07 pm
Posted on 11/26/18 at 4:10 pm to MrAUTigers
quote:
Washington started the season at #25. Arizona will end up in the Tourney.
Auburn did what they needed to do in Maui. Losing to Duke by just 6 points is not going to penalize Auburn down the stretch.
Auburn's OOC is not very difficult, but if they can go 12-1 in OOC play.... beating the likes of Washington, Arizona, Xavier, Dayton, and NC State... and with the one loss being a close one to Duke... that will not hold them back from anything.
It's not a strong SOS, but its acceptable. Like everyone else though, Auburn is going to have to go a minimum of 10-8 in league play to make the NCAA Tournament. They'll likely have to go at worst 30-4 and win the SEC to have a shot at a 1-seed. With each additional loss past the number four, they'll drop about 1.2 seed spots.
Auburn appears good enough and the rest of the league weak enough that they should go a minimum 12-4 in SEC play. If they win out in OOC play, they should be a 3 or 4 seed come March.
Posted on 11/26/18 at 5:36 pm to BHMKyle
Bama probably wins one of those, finishes right at .500 in league play and is in the “next 4 out” bunch
Posted on 11/26/18 at 8:27 pm to BHMKyle
quote:
Auburn appears good enough and the rest of the league weak enough that they should go a minimum 12-4 in SEC play.
14-4 or 12-6?
Fwiw, i had 13-5 pegged before the season (8-1 at home, 5-4 on road).
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