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re: Early F+ Projections on big SEC games
Posted on 8/16/17 at 5:00 pm to SummerOfGeorge
Posted on 8/16/17 at 5:00 pm to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
Alabama vs Tennessee : Alabama by 25.3 (93%)
0
Posted on 8/16/17 at 5:23 pm to Irons Puppet
quote:
Ok, I guess you are only concerned about the line for "entertainment purposes only".
These aren't lines, they are projections. I'm interested in them because it's fun to get a gauge of SEC games this season.
Posted on 8/16/17 at 5:29 pm to SummerOfGeorge
quote:Pretty stupid considering what TCU lost and the fact they couldn't even beat us when we were even worse.
Arkansas vs TCU : TCU by 1.8 (54%)
Posted on 8/16/17 at 6:04 pm to I-H8-BAMA
LSU-BYU at 86%?
Wow, somebody isn't paying attention. BYU might win that game outright.
Wow, somebody isn't paying attention. BYU might win that game outright.
Posted on 8/16/17 at 6:09 pm to WG_Dawg
quote:
Auburn vs Georgia : Auburn by 9.1 (70%)
seems pretty ridiculous
You're right. Should be a much higher percentage, and it'll be Auburn by at least double that
Posted on 8/16/17 at 6:14 pm to SummerOfGeorge
What is A&M @ UCLA?
Posted on 8/16/17 at 6:39 pm to Farmer1906
quote:
What is A&M @ UCLA?
UCLA vs Texas A&M : Texas A&M by 3.4 (58%)
Posted on 8/16/17 at 8:10 pm to Drewbie
quote:
Pretty stupid considering what TCU lost and the fact they couldn't even beat us when we were even worse.
They return more starters than any P5 team and would have won last year if Kenny Hill knees the ball instead of scoring
Posted on 8/16/17 at 9:15 pm to goldennugget
quote:From a team that was arse and Kenny Hill has been noted as looking like dogshit. TCU isn't good.
They return more starters than any P5 team and would have won last year if Kenny Hill knees the ball instead of scoring
Posted on 8/16/17 at 10:11 pm to Drewbie
quote:
From a team that was arse and Kenny Hill has been noted as looking like dog shite. TCU isn't good.
Arkansas went 7-5 last year and beat TCU in OT, so.....
Pretty similar
Posted on 8/17/17 at 6:18 am to SummerOfGeorge
So according to this, we will lose to ND, Tennessee, Florida and Auburn?? Lol ok then. This will be a good bump at the end of the season.
Posted on 8/17/17 at 6:39 am to Prof
quote:
If it's including last year's defensive stats then all predictions for UT are very much fricked up. That defense finished near the bottom of CFB due to an unprecedented number of injuries. We lost more starts than any team in all of CFB due to injuries.
Have you ever re-watched the UT v A&M game? The number of injuries on both sides, but especially for UT, was just unreal.
Posted on 8/17/17 at 7:13 am to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
LSU vs Arkansas : LSU by 17.2 (84%)
Arkansas is undervalued. Quite a lot too.
I'm sure that this model will get it down pretty tight after a week or two, but a lot of these lines are off quite a bit at the moment.
Posted on 8/17/17 at 7:16 am to goldennugget
quote:
They return more starters than any P5 team and would have won last year if Kenny Hill knees the ball instead of scoring
As far as TCU vs Arkansas goes, I more or less agree with this prediction. It should be a coin toss. TCU and Arkansas both will be considerably improved over last season, and last year's game was awfully damn close. TCU may be a few points better than Hogs, but Hogs are at home. I wouldn't bet the game either way.
Posted on 8/17/17 at 7:43 am to DrewDawg13
quote:
So according to this, we will lose to ND, Tennessee, Florida and Auburn?? Lol ok then. This will be a good bump at the end of the season.
Georgia has
- 3 heavy favorite games (75%+) (App, Samford, Mizzou)
- 4 favorite games (60-74%) (State, Vandy, USCe, UK)
- 4 toss ups games (40-59%) (UT, UF, ND, GT)
- 1 underdog game (0-39%) (AU)
Much better way to look at it than WIN/LOSS
This post was edited on 8/17/17 at 7:46 am
Posted on 8/17/17 at 7:48 am to Drewbie
quote:
Pretty stupid considering what TCU lost and the fact they couldn't even beat us when we were even worse.
TCU is ranked #3 on PS' Experience Chart. Arkansas is ranked at #90.Posted on 8/17/17 at 8:01 am to ALA2262
The problem with these is they don't take into consideration the schedule.
Arkansas is extremely fortunate to get LSU the week after Bama, and is a def factor in how close its been lately.
Arkansas is extremely fortunate to get LSU the week after Bama, and is a def factor in how close its been lately.
Posted on 8/17/17 at 8:38 am to SummerOfGeorge
What was the lsu Wisconsin projection this time last year? Asking for a friend
Posted on 8/17/17 at 9:10 am to Dr_Tim_Whatley
quote:
The problem with these is they don't take into consideration the schedule.
The real problem is people read to much into these projections and don't understand what they are or what they are trying to do.
It is clear that these projections are only trying to factor in certain variables that are easier to consider than others. Obviously they are still going to be wrong often, especially the first couple of weeks. The idea is that as the season goes on, it becomes more accurate.
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