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Early F+ Projections on big SEC games
Posted on 8/16/17 at 10:08 am
Posted on 8/16/17 at 10:08 am
Based on prior year results vs expectation, anything between 50-60% is basically a toss up. 60% to 70% is a slight favorite. Anything between 70-75% is solid favorite but losing wouldn't be out of the question, anything 75-85% is pretty heavy favorite and 85%+ is basically a lock.
Florida vs Michigan : Michigan by 2.0 (55%)
LSU vs BYU : LSU by 18.5 (86%)
Alabama vs Florida State : Alabama by 8.3 (68%)
UCLA vs Texas A&M : Texas A&M by 3.4 (58%)
Tennessee vs Georgia Tech : Tennessee by 2.6 (56%)
Clemson vs Auburn : Clemson by 4.8 (61%)
Notre Dame vs Georgia : Notre Dame by 3.8 (59%)
Arkansas vs TCU : TCU by 1.8 (54%)
California vs Ole Miss : Ole Miss by 4.8 (61%)
Mississippi State vs LSU : LSU by 12.2 (76%)
Florida vs Tennessee : Florida by 9.1 (70%)
Tennessee vs Georgia : Tennessee by 0.4 (51%)
Florida vs LSU : LSU by 3.0 (57%)
LSU vs Auburn : LSU by 5.8 (63%)
Alabama vs Tennessee : Alabama by 25.3 (93%)
Florida vs Georgia : Florida by 4.4 (60%)
South Carolina vs Florida : Florida by 8.5 (69%)
Alabama vs LSU : Alabama by 13.2 (78%)
Tennessee vs LSU : LSU by 9.6 (71%)
Auburn vs Georgia : Auburn by 9.1 (70%)
LSU vs Arkansas : LSU by 17.2 (84%)
Auburn vs Alabama : Alabama by 11.6 (75%)
Florida vs Florida State : Florida State by 5.4 (62%)
Georgia Tech vs Georgia : Georgia by 2.2 (55%)
Mississippi State vs Ole Miss : Mississippi State by 0.3 (51%)
Florida vs Michigan : Michigan by 2.0 (55%)
LSU vs BYU : LSU by 18.5 (86%)
Alabama vs Florida State : Alabama by 8.3 (68%)
UCLA vs Texas A&M : Texas A&M by 3.4 (58%)
Tennessee vs Georgia Tech : Tennessee by 2.6 (56%)
Clemson vs Auburn : Clemson by 4.8 (61%)
Notre Dame vs Georgia : Notre Dame by 3.8 (59%)
Arkansas vs TCU : TCU by 1.8 (54%)
California vs Ole Miss : Ole Miss by 4.8 (61%)
Mississippi State vs LSU : LSU by 12.2 (76%)
Florida vs Tennessee : Florida by 9.1 (70%)
Tennessee vs Georgia : Tennessee by 0.4 (51%)
Florida vs LSU : LSU by 3.0 (57%)
LSU vs Auburn : LSU by 5.8 (63%)
Alabama vs Tennessee : Alabama by 25.3 (93%)
Florida vs Georgia : Florida by 4.4 (60%)
South Carolina vs Florida : Florida by 8.5 (69%)
Alabama vs LSU : Alabama by 13.2 (78%)
Tennessee vs LSU : LSU by 9.6 (71%)
Auburn vs Georgia : Auburn by 9.1 (70%)
LSU vs Arkansas : LSU by 17.2 (84%)
Auburn vs Alabama : Alabama by 11.6 (75%)
Florida vs Florida State : Florida State by 5.4 (62%)
Georgia Tech vs Georgia : Georgia by 2.2 (55%)
Mississippi State vs Ole Miss : Mississippi State by 0.3 (51%)
This post was edited on 8/16/17 at 6:40 pm
18
Posted on 8/16/17 at 10:13 am to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
Auburn vs Georgia : Auburn by 9.1 (70%)
seems pretty ridiculous
Posted on 8/16/17 at 10:16 am to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
Auburn vs Alabama : Alabama by 11.6 (75%)
Little high.
Posted on 8/16/17 at 10:27 am to SummerOfGeorge
quote:I really don't get this. All trolling aside outside of the last year this game is normally pretty close and competitive no matter who wins.
LSU vs Arkansas : LSU by 17.2 (84%)
Posted on 8/16/17 at 10:29 am to Hawgnsincebirth55
quote:
I really don't get this. All trolling aside outside of the last year this game is normally pretty close and competitive no matter who wins.
They are based on stats, not human judgment. The stats say LSU is 17 points better than Arkansas at home, and I think that seems like a pretty fair assessment heading into the season.
Posted on 8/16/17 at 10:31 am to Hawgnsincebirth55
quote:
I really don't get this. All trolling aside outside of the last year this game is normally pretty close and competitive no matter who wins.
Preseason advanced stats are an inexact science at best.
Look at a team like Michigan. They lost like 20 starters. There is no way to get a good handle on what expectations should be, especially down to tenths of a point.
Posted on 8/16/17 at 10:32 am to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
Alabama vs Tennessee : Alabama by 25.3 (93%)
Highest win probability on the board. This approaches rent-a-win out of conference cupcake probability levels. What a shame what's happened to this former great rivalry.
Posted on 8/16/17 at 10:34 am to elposter
quote:
Highest win probability on the board. This approaches rent-a-win out of conference cupcake probability levels. What a shame what's happened to this former great rivalry.
"But, but, life-champions" and all that
Posted on 8/16/17 at 10:35 am to SummerOfGeorge
How many of those were favorites last year?
Posted on 8/16/17 at 10:36 am to SummerOfGeorge
Gamblers will buy anything that they think will give them an edge. That is why most live in rentals.
Posted on 8/16/17 at 10:37 am to momentoftruth87
quote:
How many of those were favorites last year?
The preseason predictions are by far the most volatile, but once we get to about Week 3 the predictions are almost 95% of the time within the "win % prediction" meter. It's pretty incredibly accurate overall.
But right now it's definitely a hodge podge of prior year stats, returning production, recruiting, etc.
Posted on 8/16/17 at 10:37 am to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
Florida vs Tennessee : Florida by 9.1 (70%)
Alabama vs Tennessee : Alabama by 25.3 (93%)
Tennessee vs LSU : LSU by 9.6 (71%)
Posted on 8/16/17 at 10:38 am to UAtide11
Yep... Butch gone after this season
Posted on 8/16/17 at 10:44 am to SummerOfGeorge
vs UGA 51% but vs @UF (UF has a 70 percent chance). Now I would say this is due to home field advantage but then the stat says LSU winning @Neyland is 71 percent (that's ridiculous).
Posted on 8/16/17 at 10:47 am to Irons Puppet
quote:
Gamblers will buy anything that they think will give them an edge. That is why most live in rentals.
We get it, it doesn't say Auburn 12-0 so it's dumb and stupid and you don't like it.
Understood.
Posted on 8/16/17 at 10:56 am to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
Alabama vs Tennessee : Alabama by 25.3 (93%)
LSU vs Auburn : LSU by 5.8 (63%)
Florida vs Tennessee : Florida by 9.1 (70%)
Tennessee vs Georgia Tech : Tennessee by 2.6 (56%)
Ones that stood out to me. Seems to be very down on Tennessee and up on Georgia Tech.
Posted on 8/16/17 at 10:59 am to SummerOfGeorge
LSU is incredibly overvalued.
Posted on 8/16/17 at 10:59 am to bamafan1001
quote:
Ones that stood out to me. Seems to be very down on Tennessee and up on Georgia Tech.
If it's including last year's defensive stats then all predictions for UT are very much fricked up. That defense finished near the bottom of CFB due to an unprecedented number of injuries.
We lost more starts than any team in all of CFB due to injuries.
Posted on 8/16/17 at 11:02 am to Prof
quote:
If it's including last year's defensive stats then all predictions for UT are very much fricked up. That defense finished near the bottom of CFB due to an unprecedented number of injuries.
It probably does to some extent (mainly because it can't guess what the stats would have been), but it clearly doesn't entirely as Tennessee finished 52nd in defense in 2016 per S&P+ and is predicted to finish 38th this year.
Posted on 8/16/17 at 11:03 am to Hawgnsincebirth55
quote:
I really don't get this. All trolling aside outside of the last year this game is normally pretty close and competitive no matter who wins.
I agree
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