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Posted on 7/8/15 at 5:42 pm to TheDrunkenTigah
quote:
A wise old man once gave me some great advice. It was "don't hate the playa, hate the game."
I'm sorry facts cause you angst.
What facts?
Posted on 7/8/15 at 5:50 pm to TeLeFaWx
Posted on 7/8/15 at 6:12 pm to TheDrunkenTigah
quote:
Again, averages of the entire season hide game by game trends. I don't give a shite that Chavis shut out Western Kentucky. Here's what it looks like if you plot the data game by game for 2014. I don't care enough about this to do the rest of Chavis's seasons, but I'd be willing to bet they all have a similar linear fit. In the two most important defensive statistics, Chavis gets worse with less TOP.
One season of one DC doesn't show anything. It shows NO comparison to how other defenses perform. I'd be willing to bet that EVERY defense has a negative correlation between points allowed and TOP, and yards allowed and TOP. But the argument against Chavis is that he RELIES on TOP for the performance of this defenses. But what if 95% of other Defensive Coordinators have EQUAL OR GREATER negative correlation between Scoring/Yards given up vs. TOP? If that's true, then there's no case to be made that Chavis needs TOP more than anyone else. And that means his stellar performance stands on it's own.
Now, I'm not about to do linear regressions for EVERY season for EVERY team. I figured that eyeballing the rankings would be good enough for a rough impression.
Posted on 7/8/15 at 6:33 pm to Nguyening
Chavis basically made TJ Yates a pro.
Posted on 7/8/15 at 6:36 pm to FishFearMe
quote:
The O will be explosive enough to compete in a "track meet" game.
Saban is amused.
Posted on 7/8/15 at 6:37 pm to Mirthomatic
quote:
I'd be willing to bet that EVERY defense has a negative correlation between points allowed and TOP, and yards allowed and TOP.
I would bet my left nut this is true. I'm done number crunching for today, but the real point I was trying to make is in a game as random as football you can't just draw conclusions from rankings and stats. I can just about support any argument I want with stats and rankings as long as I frame them right. Aggies know in their heart of hearts that Chief not having a power run game to complement his style is uncharted territory, and it could fail. All the same LSU fans know Chavis is at the least a top 5 DC. All that matters is what happens on the field.
Posted on 7/8/15 at 6:40 pm to TheDrunkenTigah
A math lesson from a corndog. That is hilarious.
This post was edited on 7/8/15 at 6:45 pm
Posted on 7/8/15 at 6:48 pm to FishFearMe
I think you might be very confused. You want me to explain a function to you? I'm going to give aTm the benefit of the doubt and assume you're a side walker.
Posted on 7/8/15 at 7:15 pm to FishFearMe
Let's take this a step further.........
Is Sumlins O really as good as yall think it is, TOP aside
2013 Points Per Game
Aggie 44.2. LSU 35.8. Aggie + 8.4
2014 PPG
Aggie 35.2. LSU 27.6. Aggie + 7.6
So we're basically talking about 8 points per game difference?
as shitty as LSU has been on O, your 1 score better per game over the last 2 years.......one of those years with the GOAT JFF obviously.
So 8 points.........Let's please drop all the talk about Cheifs new Offensive cushion. 8 points. He can give up 8 points in 58 seconds trust me.
8 points?
Is Sumlins O really as good as yall think it is, TOP aside
2013 Points Per Game
Aggie 44.2. LSU 35.8. Aggie + 8.4
2014 PPG
Aggie 35.2. LSU 27.6. Aggie + 7.6
So we're basically talking about 8 points per game difference?
as shitty as LSU has been on O, your 1 score better per game over the last 2 years.......one of those years with the GOAT JFF obviously. So 8 points.........Let's please drop all the talk about Cheifs new Offensive cushion. 8 points. He can give up 8 points in 58 seconds trust me.
8 points?
Posted on 7/8/15 at 7:26 pm to Dlab2013
You realize 8 points a game is a huge difference for a season, right?
You're talking about a scoring difference of over 100 points for the season.
You're talking about a scoring difference of over 100 points for the season.
Posted on 7/8/15 at 7:38 pm to AgCoug
Lamar- 73
Rice-38
SMU-58
Typical OOC east Texas highschool stat padders help that out don't you think?
Throw in USCjr at 52...........
Sumlin deserved 59-0
If you didnt score 1 single point after those 4 games you still average almost 20pt a game.
Rice-38
SMU-58
Typical OOC east Texas highschool stat padders help that out don't you think?
Throw in USCjr at 52...........
Sumlin deserved 59-0
If you didnt score 1 single point after those 4 games you still average almost 20pt a game.
This post was edited on 7/8/15 at 7:44 pm
Posted on 7/8/15 at 7:51 pm to Nguyening
quote:
LSU Defenses against Power 5 Opponents
Yards/Play (Rank) Points/Play (Rank) 3rd % (Rank)
2009..... 4.6 (17)......... .22 (8)......... 36.7% (36)
2010..... 4.9 (26)......... .29 (19)....... 33.3 (8)
2011..... 4.0 (2)........... .16 (2)......... 36.8 (36)
2012..... 4.3 (7)........... .24 (10)....... 31.5 (9)
2013..... 5.1 (34)......... .32 (34)....... 39.5 (63)
2014..... 4.9 (26)......... .28 (17)....... 37.16 (33)
quote:
In 2009, LSU was ranked 107 in time of possession. Chavis still had the #26 Total Defense, and the #11 Scoring Defense.
A year later in 2010, LSU was #57 in TOP, while Chavis had the #12 Total D, and the #11 Scoring D.
Even during the great defense in 2011, LSU was only #26 in TOP.
In 2012 LSU TOP 9. Total D/ScoringD #8/#12
In 2013, LSU TOP: #57, Total D/Scoring D: #15/#21
In 2014, LSU TOP: #9, Total D/Scoring D: #9/#5
When you place your stats side-by-side with mine, what I see is that most years, Chavis's defenses benefited from LSU's pace of play in that their total defense rankings were more impressive than their efficiency rankings.
For the record, the reason no LSU fan is sad to see Chavis go isn't because he's a terrible DC, it's because we've been getting diminishing returns for years and he had the audacity to expect a raise.
This post was edited on 7/8/15 at 8:00 pm
Posted on 7/8/15 at 8:02 pm to Dlab2013
How was that at all a response to what I wrote? I was merely commenting on the fact that 8 points is a huge margin in SO.
Not to mention, Sam Houston, New Mexico State, Kentucky. Kind of balances out over the long run.
Miles deserved 17-0? See how easy that was?
You're a better poster than that.
Not to mention, Sam Houston, New Mexico State, Kentucky. Kind of balances out over the long run.
Miles deserved 17-0? See how easy that was?
You're a better poster than that.
Posted on 7/8/15 at 8:06 pm to Nguyening
I kind of want to know how long Aggy really thinks chavis will be around? I give him 4 years before he retires
Posted on 7/8/15 at 8:08 pm to CajunTiger_225
I haven't a clue.
It likely very much depends on how he does this year.
It likely very much depends on how he does this year.
Posted on 7/8/15 at 8:15 pm to CajunTiger_225
Chavis said 15 in his press conference
I believe him
I believe him
Posted on 7/8/15 at 8:20 pm to Old Sarge
quote:
Chavis said 15 in his press conference I believe him
So he'll be there 13 years after Sumlin?
Seriously, do yall think McKinney, Hagen, and Joseph get the boot after this year if things don't go right? I get you fired Snyder, but kept all the same position coaches?
Sumlin shoulda cleaned house IMO
Posted on 7/8/15 at 8:39 pm to Dlab2013
I trust that Chavis will evaluate his staffs performance and make adjustments next year if needed.
If Sumlin wins less than 9 his seat will become warm, but I think we have a 9-10 win season ahead of us
If Sumlin wins less than 9 his seat will become warm, but I think we have a 9-10 win season ahead of us
Posted on 7/8/15 at 9:02 pm to Old Sarge
quote:
I trust that Chavis will evaluate his staffs performance and make adjustments next year if needed.
don't hold your breath on that pal! Brick and Welter say hi when talking about adjustments 
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